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Analyzing EV turnout data: Kamala is done (MASE)
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Date: November 4th, 2024 12:54 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own "data experts" and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout. Obama's former campaign manager, lim Messina, said on MSNBC that "the early vote numbers are a little scary." What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama's chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axeirod. told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris. Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that's asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. It Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven't been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow? President Donald J. Trump is going into Election Day stronger than he has in any previous election and if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January. But you don't need to take our word for it. According to Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart: Arizona: Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020 Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020 Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020 Georgia: Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020 Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020 Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020 Michigan: Urban turnout is down -321.,523 votes compared to this point in 2020 Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020 Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020 North Carolina: Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020 Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020 Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020 Nevada: Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020 Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020 Pennsylvania: Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020 Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020 Wisconsin: Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020 Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020 |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:35 PM Author: """'""""'' Date: November 4th, 2024 12:54 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump
With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own "data experts" and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout. Obama's former campaign manager, lim Messina, said on MSNBC that "the early vote numbers are a little scary." What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama's chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axeirod. told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.
Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that's asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. It Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven't been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?
President Donald J. Trump is going into Election Day stronger than he has in any previous election and if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January.
But you don't need to take our word for it. According to Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:
Arizona:
Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020
Georgia:
Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020
Michigan:
Urban turnout is down -321.,523 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020
North Carolina:
Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020
Nevada:
Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020
Pennsylvania:
Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020
Wisconsin:
Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2#48280689) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:43 PM Author: animeboi (.) Date: November 4th, 2024 1:35 PM Author: """'""""''
Date: November 4th, 2024 12:54 PM
Author: Donald MASE Trump
With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own "data experts" and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout.
Obama's former campaign manager, lim Messina, said on MSNBC that "the early vote numbers are a little scary." What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama's chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axeirod. told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.
Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that's asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. It Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven't been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?
President Donald J. Trump is going into Election Day stronger than he has in any previous election and if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January.
But you don't need to take our word for it. According to Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:
Arizona:
Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020
Georgia:
Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020
Michigan:
Urban turnout is down -321.,523 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020
North Carolina:
Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020
Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020
Nevada:
Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020
Pennsylvania:
Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020
Wisconsin:
Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020
Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2#48280689) |
Date: November 4th, 2024 1:13 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280784) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:16 PM Author: joyous rallies Couldn't this just be measuring less Dems early voting because no COVID and more MAGAs willing to early vote vs last time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280800) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:35 PM Author: """'""""'' that makes far too much logical sense for MASE to realize (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280868) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:39 PM Author: Epistemic Humility Whoa. Are you saying 2020 may not have been representative of anything? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281961) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:17 PM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat They're setting up a rope a dope (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280804) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:17 PM Author: ""''"'"'"'"'' with Trump, yes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280806) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:23 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. People are sleeping on WA return data. The state has been exclusively mail since 2011 so comparisons with 2020 still work despite covid, unlike in most states. As of Friday, the percent of ballots returned is 47%, compared to 65% on the Friday before election day in 2020. The difference is even sharper in King County (Seattle): 46.5% vs. 67.5%. This would seem to indicate a huge drop in lib turnout.
The data updates at 5pm local time so worth checking tonight to see if this held through the weekend. https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/data-research/election-data-and-maps/ballot-return-statistics |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:28 PM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat Wait it is IMPOSSIBLE to vote in person. Am i understanding this correctly?
This is clinically insane how is that legal |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:36 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Basically yes. There are a handful of "vote centers" that "help" disabled people fill out their ballots, but no in-person voting other than that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280869) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:14 PM Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, Wait wtf? Has it always been like this? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281813) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:17 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Since 2011. Oregon has been all-mail longer. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281840) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:24 PM Author: .;:..;:;.:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;, Wtf. Corrupt to the core (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281879) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:23 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe What's the comparison with 2016 and 2012? According to the site about 58% of the returned ballots were placed in drop boxes. I imagine in 2020 a lot more people mailed it in early because they were work from home and didn't leave the house much. Now they can drop it off right before the deadline or on election day. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281873) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:30 PM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. Their 2016 and earlier data is in a 250mb .zip file that I don't care to analyze. But if you compare 2022 to 2018 you can see that roughly the same amount of ballots came in around election day (the biggest day in 2022 was e-day itself and the biggest day in 2018 was the day after). So I wouldn't assume there is a larger portion of voters than usual who are waiting until the last minute.
https://www.sos.wa.gov/2022-general-election |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:28 PM Author: . . ... .. . .. . . . .. . . .. .... . . . .. So weird that your only metric for success is vs a weird covid year (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280838) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:33 PM Author: \"''"\'"\'\"\''"\' will make his complete breakdown Tues night hilarious to watch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280853) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:11 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
(Good faith Jewish man who has been AGGRESSIVELY PUSHING the "LOL remember the '2022 Red Wave' Trumpkins?" demoralization angle for years now, because it's dumb and pointless to compare 2024 to 2020 but it's real smart and fair to compare 2024 to 2022, trust me I know these things anyways gtg bros!) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:12 PM Author: ,.,,.,..,..,..,.,..,.,..,.,..,.,.,.,.,..,. I hope you don’t OD tomorrow night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281801) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:13 PM Author: Donald MASE Trump I hope you do (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281810) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:32 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281918) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:36 PM Author: butt cutlets and poo poo sauce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281939) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 4:36 PM Author: Gay Grandpa Fucking one shot kill layup (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281942) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 1:35 PM Author: """'""""'' this is amazing stuff! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48280866) |
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Date: November 4th, 2024 2:09 PM Author: Slaanesh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624584&forum_id=2Reputation#48281001) |