Literally every forecast model has Kamala winning
| '''"''"'''""'"" | 09/20/24 | | but at what cost | 09/20/24 | | FBI Agent Chris Saviano is Raping My Wife | 09/20/24 | | but at what cost | 09/20/24 | | '''"''"'''""'"" | 09/20/24 | | '''"''"'''""'"" | 09/20/24 | | Based Archbishop Vigano TP | 09/20/24 | | A Technologically Advanced Pontiac Firebird | 09/20/24 | | MASE | 09/20/24 | | '''"''"'''""'"" | 09/20/24 | | Borders 2.0 | 09/20/24 | | MASE | 09/20/24 | | Borders 2.0 | 09/20/24 | | '''"''"'''""'"" | 09/20/24 | | LathamTouchedMe | 09/20/24 | | state your IQ before I engage you further | 09/20/24 | | baseball fan | 09/20/24 | | MASE | 09/20/24 | | '''"''"'''""'"" | 09/20/24 | | state your IQ before I engage you further | 09/20/24 | | lsd | 09/20/24 | | Cupid Stunt | 09/20/24 | | '''"''"'''""'"" | 09/20/24 | | A lawyer (or lower) | 09/20/24 | | Minisoldr | 09/20/24 | | FBI Agent Chris Saviano is Raping My Wife | 09/20/24 | | Lion Diet is CR HTMFH | 09/20/24 | | How to derive aut from ism | 09/20/24 | | A Technologically Advanced Pontiac Firebird | 09/20/24 | | lsd | 09/20/24 |
Poast new message in this thread
|
Date: September 20th, 2024 2:50 PM Author: but at what cost
Date: September 20th, 2024 2:49 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,.,..,:,,:,,.,:::,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1837197575939613138?s=46
as does every betting market:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Maybe every one of them is wrong though and MASE (2024’s borders tp) is right 🤷♂️
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2Reputation#48113771) |
Date: September 20th, 2024 2:51 PM Author: FBI Agent Chris Saviano is Raping My Wife
It's not 2016 anymore, but on Election Day 2016 Nate Silver gave Trump a 30 percent chance of winning:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2Reputation#48113774) |
Date: September 20th, 2024 6:38 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism
We'll see just how many moderate democrats and left of center independents just stay the fuck home.
I have no confidence that these pollsters know who the *likely* voters are. I get that a lot of non-MAGA people can't bring themselves to cast ballots for Trump, but they're not in a suicide pact either.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2Reputation#48114528) |
Date: September 20th, 2024 7:31 PM Author: A Technologically Advanced Pontiac Firebird
If no one on XO can understand what a probabilistic model is then the rest of the public has no idea.
Betting markets accurately capture consensus but have almost no predictive value.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2Reputation#48114679) |
|
|