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Reminder: BTC still has a sky-high ceiling. So does Tesla.
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:28 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Not flame.
Remember when I said this shit years ago? Yeah, it's still just as true today.
Haters, please be sure to bookmark this thread so you can bump it in 2025, just like you’re furiously bumping all of my stupid 2013 threads shilling for Bitcoin (back when I was roundly mocked as an idiot for telling XO to buy it even at the “high” of $1,200). |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:51 AM Author: maize selfie codepig i bumped ur thread to mock the skeptics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41665960) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:59 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Ty
Can’t imagine what it feels like to be a nocoiner at this point. “Haha naw it’s just a stupid fad you’ll see” *muzzle in mouth* |
Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:29 AM Author: Bat-shit-crazy Menage Antidepressant Drug you did good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41665902) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:30 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Ty. You can too, in just a few short years, if you buy BTC and/or Tesla. Yes, even now, at this “market high.” Not flame. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:31 AM Author: Magical insanely creepy son of senegal blood rage Yes, but both will crash. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41665907) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:31 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Probably. It would be a good idea not to sell them when that happens. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:37 AM Author: Magical insanely creepy son of senegal blood rage They’re both crashing hard this year. But,
To be fair,,,,
They both have a ways to go before they do. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:45 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Bitcoin will easily hit $100,000 (probably much higher) before it ever risks going to $0–probably a few years from now. That’s a 3x+ return from the current all time high.
Tesla will be a $3,000+ stock by 2030, if not before. That’s a 4x+ return from the current all time high.
If you have an easier or more sure-fire way to passively triple or quadruple your money in the next few years, then ignore this advice and do you. This is for everyone else that does not have anything easier or more sure-fire lined up.
There will indeed probably be better times to buy both in 2021, but people telling you now is a “terrible” time to buy either because they are “insanely overpriced” in “a massive bubble” are the same geniuses who were confidently saying things like “I might consider buying a Bitcoin at $5,000, but $8,000 is just absurd and stupid” a year ago ... and, as a result of that logic, they currently own no Bitcoin as it moons to new ATHs. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:41 AM Author: talented nofapping multi-billionaire casino Why will Tesla go that high?
I know the BTC bull thesis. What's the story for Tesla? |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 11:45 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Put aside the incredible first mover advantage (like 5+ years ahead of the rest of the market in terms of both tech and manufacturing/roadside infrastructure) that Tesla now has in the electric vehicle space, which is a fast growing market segment.
Put aside the incredible technological advantage that Tesla also holds in full self driving (if you haven’t actually experienced it you have no idea how great it is even now, and they are on the cusp of widely releasing major updates within the next few months), which almost everyone will want once they experience it and realize it’s actually awesome and safer than regular driving.
Put aside the synergies that Tesla is enjoying from Solar City battery R&D, which are being incorporated not only into its electric car business but also into other spin offs (Tesla has concrete plans to roll out household applications that will be cheaper and longer lasting than current tech within the next year or two—opening up a whole different market).
Put aside the mystique and brand loyalty that the Tesla name inspires among its rabid fan base (which is hard to quantify, but matters and isn’t going anywhere as long as Elon is around).
Just consider two *other* value propositions that are hovering on the horizon:
1. Every Tesla vehicle on the road today, and every Tesla vehicle that will be built going forward, runs on the same OS. Tesla is now positioned to sell software upgrades to *every* interested Tesla driver now and in the future for things like unlocking full self driving capability ($10k) or zero to sixty in 2.9 seconds ($2k), etc etc. Once Tesla recoups the R&D cost associated with developing a software patch, 99.9% of every dollar from every one of those sales is literally pure profit. There’s no manufacturing costs, no delivery costs. Press of a button and it’s unlocked in exchange for cold hard cash. That’s a fundamentally different business model from every other car company, and no other car company is even remotely well positioned to pull that off in the near future. Legacy car companies are in the manufacturing business; Tesla is one of the greatest manufacturing companies on Earth, but that’s just a nice bonus—it’s actually fundamentally a software company that will very soon be consistently making thousands of dollars off cars *it has already sold*, even as it continues to pump more and more cars into the market each year. This is why the constant bear comparisons of manufacturing scale between Toyota vs Tesla are completely retarded. Tesla is actively scaling up manufacturing, but it isn’t a 1:1 analysis because every Tesla car will end up being *much* more profitable, over a much longer time window, for Tesla than any car sold by any competitor. This is already starting to happen, even as I type this. It will only snowball from here.
2. Once full self driving is deployed (the tech is almost there) and regulations catch up to permit driverless cars to operate on the road (this will take longer but it’s inevitable), Tesla will be perfectly positioned to allow its owners to turn their cars into virtual taxi / food delivery services *whenever they aren’t using them*. Tesla owners will be making passive income from their cars. Tesla will find a way to take cuts (maybe through selling software patches to facilitate it, maybe by developing a platform like Uber that facilitates the transactions, probably both) and move swiftly into those markets as well—and unlike Uber, Tesla will be hugely profitable because not only will it have cut out all of the driver costs, the very nature of the tech will incentivize owners to keep their cars out on the road as much as possible. No other company is remotely positioned to compete in this arena once these stars align, which will happen by 2030 if not sooner.
Those are just two examples out of many I could name. I won’t even get into Tesla moving into the car insurance game (it’s already selling car insurance to Tesla owners at WAY below market rate in California, and one of the additional appealing elements of the Tesla insurance is that Tesla fully indemnifies insured drivers for anything that happens when they are in self driving mode—in exchange for drivers 1. Allowing Tesla to turn on cameras in the car so Tesla can see what went wrong and make sure they weren’t asleep behind the wheel, and 2. Giving Tesla permission to record and analyze all of the data generated from self driving in the vehicle using a proprietary supercomputer they have already built for that express purpose.... which exponentially compounds their first mover self driving tech advantage, because real world data collection and analysis is the single biggest hurdle standing in the way of any company trying to refine this tech, and Tesla already had orders of magnitude more data than their closest competitor even before it pulled this brilliant move to generate even more).
I could go on and on, but bros need to do their own research, and if that isn’t enough to pique your interest you should just invest in an ETF or something and stay poor. Tesla is a game changing company that will literally put numerous legacy brands out of business within the next 10 years, and anyone betting against Elon at this point is a hater or a fool. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:09 PM Author: talented nofapping multi-billionaire casino #1 (upgrades) - You can get an initial pop from selling some legacy customers expensive ludicrous modes and whatnot, but after that, you're a regular software company.
Microsoft and Adobe have market caps of $1.7 trillion and $240 billion, respectively. You're predicting a market cap of $2.9 trillion for Tesla (4.25x current).
So you think Tesla will be worth a quarter-trillion dollars more than the combination of the biggest software company, the biggest pro-level software company, and current Tesla (which is doing some huge double counting). That seems like a pretty big stretch, particularly given that MS and Adobe benefit from network effects that are much stronger than Tesla's charging stations.
#2 (personal vehicle commercialization) - That's more persuasive than being nickel and dimed every month for the ability to turn on your heated seats. But that's still really fucking aggressive. That quarter-billion dollars I mentioned above is roughly the combined market cap of FedEx, UPS, and Uber.
I think you've done a better job of justifying the current price than your prediction.
"I won’t even get into Tesla moving into the car insurance game . . ."
That's it. I'm taking away your paralepsis for the next month.
". . . and if that isn’t enough to pique your interest you should just invest in an ETF or something and stay poor."
Tesla supporter abrasiveness is getting a bit cliched by now, don't you think? |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 7:33 PM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Ok you convinced me: you should continue to find reasons to not own Tesla because it’s super overvalued, it would be stupid to buy into the bubble now, etc. It’s definitely a position that a lot of people are taking so you have will plenty of company right or wrong.
Good luck. I mean that sincerely, I hope you never look back and regret this decision. |
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Date: January 4th, 2021 2:09 AM Author: talented nofapping multi-billionaire casino I respond with comparisons to related industries to provide at least some sort of numerical grounding (because your post contained none), and then you reply with lazy, sarcastic shit. Like I said, it's kind of cliched, don't you think? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41671989) |
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Date: January 4th, 2021 12:09 PM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
This would be a more effective takedown if it wasn’t posted:
- In the thread I made on the weekend in my limited free time solely to encourage interested XO Brothers to invest in two things I passionately believe in for their own long term financial gain (at no benefit to myself); and
- In response to a 1,000 word post I spent 20 minutes typing up in response to your request that I expound on why Tesla is a good buy, articulating just *a few* points that make me bullish after I have spent significant time over the last year researching the company in depth.
Sorry but I just don’t feel like continuing to autistically argue with an internet stranger about the nitty gritty of a subject that I am 100% certain I know far more than you do about (unless you have also coincidentally spent an entire week+ worth of your life deep diving into this company over the last year, which I’m sure you haven’t). Don’t buy Tesla. I truly don’t care. I wish you well like 90% of my fellow XO Sudo Bros, and I sincerely hope that your Bitcoin stack is currently as thick as mine is and that you also loaded up on it back in 2013. Have a good week, friend! |
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Date: January 4th, 2021 3:02 AM Author: vibrant location headpube Your insight here is not without merit, but you do realize that everything you said here could be true (and could happen the way you say it will happen) and Tesla could still not be worth more than its current $700bln right?
Its about TAM, end market penetration, share and margins. Its hard to get the math to work even if you are pollyannaish about many of the key inputs. There are plenty of first-movers who have strong network effects in markets of a similar size who are not worth hundreds of billions. A big hint is how the massive increase in Tesla's valuation happened to occur when the entire tech space rocketed and the Fed cranked the money printing to full speed. None of what has happened this year has fundamentally changed the outlook for EVs, battery technology or self-driving tech. The bull case for Tesla did not suddenly become more bullish because of data we got in the past 8 months. Everything you have said could have been said Jan 2020, so why is the stock 7x higher? Hint: its not because of anything fundamentally to do with Tesla.
Now to some of your substantive points:
1. This is not a sustainable business strategy. You get a one-time upfront high margin revenue bump and thats it. Unless you can somehow turn self-driving features into a subscription model (would never happen), your bull case just means Tesla eeks out an extra one-time payment from some fraction of its customers.
2. The whole rent your car while you do not use it is retarded. If that truly happens then you will see fleet companies backed by low cost of capital (maybe even indirect ownership by financial institutions themselves through syndication who have 0% deposit funding) come in to take that market. There will never be a chance people will be able to make real profit (i.e. net of wear and tear).
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Date: January 4th, 2021 12:06 PM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
OK. You also shouldn’t buy Tesla. You convinced me. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 7:33 AM Author: stirring jade den Would at least have a suicide stack of Chainlink at this point as well. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41666233) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 9:14 AM Author: Infuriating Giraffe What is a suicide stack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41666369) |
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Date: January 5th, 2021 2:54 AM Author: ruby electric furnace stack to prevent suicide if you miss out on 500x (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41678455) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:45 AM Author: Metal Massive Meetinghouse The fact that I can specifically remember, to the day, discussing bitcoin with my friend's geeky dad and wishing that I had some money to throw at it makes me want to swallow molten lead.
not that i'm a tech or investing wizard, but i don't know anyone personally who knew what bitcoin was earlier than me. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 2:53 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Fair, but it’s *still* relatively early. Not flame. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:14 AM Author: Exhilarant mother weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41666052) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:17 AM Author: Misanthropic beady-eyed whorehouse telephone I’m in the same boat as you. I heard about it very early. The problem that you’re ignoring is that not only would you have had to buy it early but you also had to be able to buy it early.
I went to go buy it and you had to go to one site that redirected you to another site which was overseas then you would need to send a copy of your drivers license and bank account. They MIGHT get back to you in a few days and then you would need to allow them to deposit .35 into your bank account to verify it then you would be able to open an account with them. It was a shady pain in the ass. I never got a response when I sent my drivers license. |
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Date: January 5th, 2021 2:47 AM Author: soggy stage dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41678441) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:13 AM Author: Comical personal credit line trailer park Why does BTC have a sky high ceiling? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41666050) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:14 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Because I said so |
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Date: January 5th, 2021 2:55 AM Author: ruby electric furnace Hard money + globalization (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41678456) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:14 AM Author: Exhilarant mother weed whacker ETH offers better ROI over next 2-4 year span
to be fair |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:17 AM Author: underhanded henna pistol To be fair,
Might be true, I also own ETH and this thread is not intended to disparage any other stock or coin. I am just sharing two mortal locks with my XO Brothers because there is a lot of FUD and hating going on right now and niggas need to keep they eyes on the prize. Any money spent on Bitcoin or Tesla will be money very well spent within the next few years—yes, even if you buy them both right this second, at these new “all time highs”. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:19 AM Author: maize selfie codepig for shitcoins:
$white will moon hard if they pull of what they're trying to do. pretty sure dev "molly" = andre cronje. his projects are hit or miss, so be careful.
$htr is interesting. an entire ecosystem like DOT and ETH.
but best to just stay in BTC until it cools off. |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 10:04 AM Author: Drab market Whiteheart is interesting - why do you think Molly is Andre? Why go to the trouble of creating a partnership and then dissociating from your partner days later? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41666484) |
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Date: January 5th, 2021 2:57 AM Author: ruby electric furnace Throw people off the scent maybe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41678459) |
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Date: January 5th, 2021 2:56 AM Author: ruby electric furnace Why will white moon over any other of the insurance coins popping up? And why htr over any other eth killer |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 8:11 AM Author: flirting dashing hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41666281) |
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 8:28 AM Author: curious home I was a BTC skeptic in some of those 2013 threads. To this day, I don't really have any BTC, but have a very large % in alts.
I acknowledge that the "digital gold" meme is taking hold in reality, though that wasn't quite the argument that was made for Bitcoin in 2013.
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Date: January 3rd, 2021 3:10 PM Author: Brass galvanic church What's a realistic BTC value in 2025? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41668016) |
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Date: January 4th, 2021 2:13 AM Author: maize selfie codepig $1 billion
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Date: January 5th, 2021 3:00 AM Author: ruby electric furnace $500k, not flame Digital gold thesis is RAPIDLY taking hold, it'll be $500k per btc if it hits gold market cap |
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Date: January 5th, 2021 2:54 AM Author: Rusted Narrow-minded Pocket Flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4726762&forum_id=2Reputation#41678453) |
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Date: July 10th, 2025 6:41 PM Author: To be fair (Semi-Retarded) To be fair,
Time for a bump? |