Baris: The early voting shows us that Dems aren't turning out their usual voters at the same rates as they did in '16 or '20. If DJT gets his voters out, the outcome of this race won't be close. DJT will easily win.
Baris: Dems are bleeding registrations in NV, PA, and NC. The Dems have no pool to go to the make up the lost ground. Their firewall requirement grows bigger in such circumstances, but the pool of votes has shrunk.