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My current Electoral map 9/24
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Date: September 24th, 2024 12:59 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs https://www.270towin.com/maps/Q3yE2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126831) |
Date: September 24th, 2024 1:00 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard God willing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126832) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:01 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs I have a 5-2 split in the swingies going to Drumpf (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126834) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:03 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard I think MI and WI are no longer in play for trump. Somehow Kamala is well outside the margin of error in those two states.
I really thought MI was going to flip Trump-- we'll see. My official prediction below. For reference, I've nailed my EC predictions on this bort, going back to 2012 |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:04 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs 9/18 Emerson poll Trump +1 in Wisconsin. The aggregate is D+1. Not outside the margin of error. Michigan I agree. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126849) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:25 PM Author: MartincourtMinicooper trump beat hillary clinton by less than 0.25% in 2016
a candidate with huge baggage who didn't even attempt to campaign there when Michigan had a white male Republican governor |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 4:21 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs I guess it's physically impossible for Trump to wins Pennsylvania now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127543) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:01 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard I think Trump loses NV, but finds a way to keep NC, take GA, and take PA back. 275 Reps to 263 Dems (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126835) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:02 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs So you have it the same as me but AZ WI blue (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126837) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:03 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard yup (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126841) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:04 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard also, trump can keep AZ, and only needs to have one of NC or GA and he'll get to 270.
PA is non-negotiable though |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:05 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs He's doing great in PA and always has this cycle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126854) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:10 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard all the fake news polls giving me a lot of pause... its inexplicable, but, here we are. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126882) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:04 PM Author: ,.,,,,....,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,. more like https://www.270towin.com/maps/kyKEP (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126847) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:05 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard if this happens, Trump will be POTUS because there's zero chance there won't be some dimpled chad ballot shenanigans that won't get kicked up to SCOTUS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126853) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:06 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs He's not losing Pennsylvania imo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126858) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:09 PM Author: dead link clicker Do you have any idea how many votes are being cast in Philadelphia right now? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126868) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:12 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard I'll be uncomfortable to an extent as long as Kamala is up in the polls. She's been up 1.8-1.9 points for a while.
Trump is up 2 points in GA and he's hanging on by a thread in NC.
He's down bigly in WI and now outside of the margin of error in MI -- down 4 points.
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:16 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs You're being a histrionic fag and wildly overstating how far ahead she is. Simmer down. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126923) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:50 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard trump should be blowing her out and it shouldn't even be close (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127050) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:53 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs And yet there are millions more blue pilled faggots in this country than real American heroes. We are literally outnumbered. The good news for us is most of the season fags live in California so we've got a shot! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127062) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:12 PM Author: .;........;.;........,.,... You're very confident for a state that Fetterman won by 5%, Shapiro won by 15%, and Casey will easy win by 10.
The demographics are very favorable to Dems given recent results in just the last 24 months. And It should be noted that Trump endorsed all the opponents and still got crushed |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:17 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs I'm feeling pretty good about PA lil breh. U mad? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126929) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:18 PM Author: .;........;.;........,.,... Without any real world data points? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126932) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:20 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs Guess so, guess so. I'm what you call a wild card.
*blues harmonica plays as tumbleweed blows by* |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:52 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard well the data point is trump is down 1.8 points in PA and the margin of error is +/- 4 points. Coupled with the fact that Trump underperforms in polls -- there's ample reason to be cautiously optimistic.
Also, all the reason in the world for Trump to put all his eggs in PA |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:24 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; Much more important than any of that is no excuse mail in voting for all voters and Dem office holders for all aspects of election enforcement. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126960) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:31 PM Author: \"''"\'"\'\"\''"\' same except turn NC & NM blue (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126985) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:39 PM Author: Many Cocks Spewing Gallons of Cum This Very Second NM is solid blue. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127020) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:14 PM Author: .;........;.;........,.,... PA is not going red. Mastriano lost by 15 and Trump is basically just a fat Mastriano. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126912) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:18 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs You seem nervous (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126931) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:19 PM Author: .;........;.;........,.,... You can't will a poll into realty. The recent 2 election cycles suggest GOP is losing ground in PA, not tied (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126937) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:21 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs Trump will never be President now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126947) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:15 PM Author: Lionel Tiger Is Virginia solid blue now? How did that happen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126916) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:16 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs Government contractors in NoVa c'mon this is common knowledge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126926) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:17 PM Author: ,.,,,,....,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,. for POTUS elections yeah. it's at that red-locally/blue-nationally stage NY was at in the 1990s (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126930) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:19 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs This is typical of many northeast states where they want low taxes and good governance but wear their social issues on their sleeves. Voting for President is like voting for God, there's a whole religious element. But locally no one wants to be taxed out of their homes or deal with high crime. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126939) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:23 PM Author: Lionel Tiger Why can’t they vote red and say they voted blue (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126956) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:26 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs If Trump wins and you live in a major coastal metro you have to whinge endlessly about how evil he is for four years. It's part of the state religion.
I'm enjoying this Q&A makes me feel like I'm teaching kids about shitlibs. |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:55 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127065) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:33 PM Author: .....;;,,.........;.;.;.;.,;,;,;.;.;,; This was a kooky week of polling overall. The result that should scare Trumpmos the most imo is Seltzer saying that Iowa is within the margin of error. Not because Trump is likely lose Iowa (he’s not at all) but more because it validates the other blue wall Midwest states slipping away, and suggests that he may have to spend money in states where he should be safe. He’s already fighting an air war where he’s down basically 2-1 in funding and his GOTV is dogshit because his campaign left it to the super PACs and RNC and they are a very poor substitute. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48126997) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:47 PM Author: .;........;.;........,.,... Worse than SuperPacs, Lara Trump handed over the GOTV effort to Charlie Kirk and Turning Point USA. Those doofuses were put in charge of turnout with no experience in local, state, or federal elections previously. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127036) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:51 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs I think you're reading too deeply into this. I have no idea what a Seltzer is. Iowa is blood red and the notion that it's within the margin of error is insane. If you're trying to say that Trump is so far down in the Midwest that it's spilling over into Iowa you're delusional. It's a neck and neck race. It's a pick'em. Kamala is not blowing Trump out of the water ljl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127053) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:56 PM Author: Many Cocks Spewing Gallons of Cum This Very Second Seems like every Trump family run political fundraising operation spends very little money on actual election stuff. Hmmm odd case. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127071) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 4:19 PM Author: ,.,,.,..,..,..,.,..,.,..,.,..,.,.,.,.,..,. That’s weird i wonder where the money went (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127536) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:49 PM Author: Juan Eighty if you actually think NM is going red 🟥, you stand to 11x your money on the betting markets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127046) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 1:56 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard I wouldn't be surprised it it does .. but, highly unlikely considering NM's population centers are around shitlib college campuses.
I also don't understand how Colorado is so liberal either. |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 2:01 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs Over 50% of the state lives in the Denver metro area. For decades Denver was smaller and the state was purple for a very long time. But the city just got extremely huge compared to the rural population. Like a less extreme version of Minnesota. Cities will always be shitlib. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127091) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 4:37 PM Author: puff daddy i think it will look like this
https://www.270towin.com/maps/AyVrm |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 5:20 PM Author: They're Eating The Dogs I want to believe but Maryland > red will happen after hell freezes over (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600742&forum_id=2Reputation#48127741) |