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100% chance of $450k salary vs. 60% chance of $320 n 40% of $700
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:13 PM Author: self-absorbed pungent immigrant lettuce basically, same job otherwise....except for pay in one you have a 100% chance of $450k the entire time, and in the other you will make $320k, but have a 40% chance of bumping up to $700k 2 to 3 years later.
Assume you want to stay at both for awhile. |
Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:14 PM Author: Shivering stead what's the salary progression in 2 if you don't make 700k or are you fixed at 320k 3 years from now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434444) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:20 PM Author: self-absorbed pungent immigrant lettuce fixed at $320k (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434463) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:24 PM Author: Shivering stead 450k. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434485) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:21 PM Author: Spruce chapel umm if you're going to be there a while, why not just take whichever job has the higher average value? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434470) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:21 PM Author: Pale arousing theatre stain would take the 450 and retire in a few years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434472) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:25 PM Author: self-absorbed pungent immigrant lettuce What if you can't save more than $100k per year at that salary do to "obligations"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434490) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:25 PM Author: Confused tanning salon trust fund this is a retarded hypo.
go with the higher EV. eyeballing they seem to have pretty similar EV, in which case you go with which job you like more. |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:27 PM Author: self-absorbed pungent immigrant lettuce similar EV. Same job.
It isn't retarded. What would you rather have, guaranteed $450k, or a bigger variance, but similar EV?
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:31 PM Author: Confused tanning salon trust fund it's really just a question of risk preference then and it's likely there's some trends of "predictable irrationality" that coalesce around evaluating hypos like this, so i'm not sure how much other people's opinions help.
you know your own risk tolerance so go with that. |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:33 PM Author: Beady-eyed Center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434531) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:35 PM Author: self-absorbed pungent immigrant lettuce I'm asking what other people would do bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434535) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:36 PM Author: Beady-eyed Center Most of the population is risk averse, subject to a significantly declining marginal utility of income by that point. If they're hyper-rational (i.e., game-aware), they're going to pick the sure bet at $450k. That's in theory. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434540) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:41 PM Author: bateful umber ratface preventive strike just do 22k risk premium for a 60% chance that you'll make 130k less (xo poas (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434551) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:48 PM Author: brindle vigorous doctorate senate I'll take the 450 and buy 130k/year of s&p index options. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434576) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:19 PM Author: red underhanded ticket booth juggernaut $450k.
i would rather have the immediate bump to $450k rather than a chance at $700k in 2-3 years. the marginal benefit to my QOL from $450k to $700k is much less than from $320k to $450k. |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:27 PM Author: curious misunderstood piazza What sort of lifestyle would you lead at $320K v. $450K v. $700K? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434775) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:49 PM Author: red underhanded ticket booth juggernaut it wouldn't change much other than we'd buy a house more quickly. day to day we don't have extravagant expenses and don't feel prohibited from doing anything we want to do (e.g., vacations mainly). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434893) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:35 PM Author: marvelous orchestra pit just LOL somehow you managed to work your own current salary into this hypo. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434806) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:42 PM Author: red underhanded ticket booth juggernaut there's such thing as a coincidence...unless you think i'm alpha dog. i have better things to do w/ my time than to talk to myself on the internet, however. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434852) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:55 PM Author: rusted exhilarant codepig obviously you do whichever one involves the least work (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434933) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:57 PM Author: self-absorbed pungent immigrant lettuce same amount of work (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434950) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 9:00 PM Author: rusted exhilarant codepig that isn't true. one at least has a better commute and office chair/toilet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434974) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 9:04 PM Author: self-absorbed pungent immigrant lettuce they don't really, just for purposes of this hypo. they are actually very very different. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434995) |