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100% chance of $450k salary vs. 60% chance of $320 n 40% of $700
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:13 PM Author: insanely creepy drunken circlehead hall basically, same job otherwise....except for pay in one you have a 100% chance of $450k the entire time, and in the other you will make $320k, but have a 40% chance of bumping up to $700k 2 to 3 years later.
Assume you want to stay at both for awhile. |
Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:14 PM Author: Spectacular jade dopamine what's the salary progression in 2 if you don't make 700k or are you fixed at 320k 3 years from now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434444) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:20 PM Author: insanely creepy drunken circlehead hall fixed at $320k (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434463) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:24 PM Author: Spectacular jade dopamine 450k. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434485) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:21 PM Author: Lascivious fishy theater affirmative action umm if you're going to be there a while, why not just take whichever job has the higher average value? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434470) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:21 PM Author: blue mischievous institution kitty cat would take the 450 and retire in a few years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434472) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:25 PM Author: insanely creepy drunken circlehead hall What if you can't save more than $100k per year at that salary do to "obligations"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434490) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:25 PM Author: soggy dashing factory reset button gas station this is a retarded hypo.
go with the higher EV. eyeballing they seem to have pretty similar EV, in which case you go with which job you like more. |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:27 PM Author: insanely creepy drunken circlehead hall similar EV. Same job.
It isn't retarded. What would you rather have, guaranteed $450k, or a bigger variance, but similar EV?
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:31 PM Author: soggy dashing factory reset button gas station it's really just a question of risk preference then and it's likely there's some trends of "predictable irrationality" that coalesce around evaluating hypos like this, so i'm not sure how much other people's opinions help.
you know your own risk tolerance so go with that. |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:33 PM Author: hideous round eye skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434531) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:35 PM Author: insanely creepy drunken circlehead hall I'm asking what other people would do bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434535) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:36 PM Author: hideous round eye skinny woman Most of the population is risk averse, subject to a significantly declining marginal utility of income by that point. If they're hyper-rational (i.e., game-aware), they're going to pick the sure bet at $450k. That's in theory. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434540) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:41 PM Author: disrespectful sable knife just do 22k risk premium for a 60% chance that you'll make 130k less (xo poas (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434551) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 7:48 PM Author: cyan razzle prole I'll take the 450 and buy 130k/year of s&p index options. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434576) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:19 PM Author: Fluffy Pea-brained Menage $450k.
i would rather have the immediate bump to $450k rather than a chance at $700k in 2-3 years. the marginal benefit to my QOL from $450k to $700k is much less than from $320k to $450k. |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:27 PM Author: exhilarant up-to-no-good milk What sort of lifestyle would you lead at $320K v. $450K v. $700K? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434775) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:49 PM Author: Fluffy Pea-brained Menage it wouldn't change much other than we'd buy a house more quickly. day to day we don't have extravagant expenses and don't feel prohibited from doing anything we want to do (e.g., vacations mainly). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434893) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:35 PM Author: cerise trip turdskin brunch just LOL somehow you managed to work your own current salary into this hypo. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434806) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:42 PM Author: Fluffy Pea-brained Menage there's such thing as a coincidence...unless you think i'm alpha dog. i have better things to do w/ my time than to talk to myself on the internet, however. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434852) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:55 PM Author: racy abusive orchestra pit twinkling uncleanness obviously you do whichever one involves the least work (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434933) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 8:57 PM Author: insanely creepy drunken circlehead hall same amount of work (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434950) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 9:00 PM Author: racy abusive orchestra pit twinkling uncleanness that isn't true. one at least has a better commute and office chair/toilet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434974) |
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Date: April 23rd, 2014 9:04 PM Author: insanely creepy drunken circlehead hall they don't really, just for purposes of this hypo. they are actually very very different. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2550243&forum_id=2#25434995) |