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Military-->UT MBA-->O&G billionaire CR?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 25th, 2014 10:03 AM Author: Brilliant indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393789) |
Date: September 25th, 2014 10:10 AM Author: Sinister Center UT MBA seems cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393837) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:11 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage oil industry is due for a downturn bro. go somewhere else. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393842) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:14 AM Author: Brilliant indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393863) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:16 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage 70-80% decline rates within 12 months for each drilled lateral does not a long term profitable program make
you start losing money at like $80 a barrel
all this easy fed reserve money is drying up and you could see a pretty big reduction in drilling, which will result in lower production when the laterals drop off |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:19 AM Author: carnelian stead Your last statement may or may not be true. We have seen high oil prices irrespective of the dollar's strength. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393886) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:22 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage it's not really the dollar's strength that I'm getting at...it's the ease with which operators can borrow money to finance the drilling program, which is directly attributable to QE
very few operators have enough free cash to sustain the drilling and recompletion activity necessary to keep their fields profitable over the long term, it's all debt funded
that's why onshore activity ground to a halt for months after the credit crunch in 08 |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:24 AM Author: Brilliant indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393916) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:26 AM Author: carnelian stead My bad bro, I guess I just misunderstood your poast.
I thought you were implying that QE tapering would lead to oil prices falling.
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:31 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage nah breh, I see how that could be misinterpreted. I don't think that at all.
If anything, oil prices could have upward pressure when credit tightens. The unconventional side is too capital intensive right now and too reliant on debt. That's great for short-term gains when the credit is easy like right now, but when it tightens, activity dries up, which means less production, and thus upward pressure on futures due to demand outstripping supply.
Great for XOM, bad for EOG/SWN/CLR/DVN/etc
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:34 AM Author: carnelian stead Agree. The majors like XOM and CVX, who both have tons of cash on hand, are probably solid buys right now.
I'd be wary of any E&P with lots of debt or minimal cash. OXY and EOG come to mind. |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:37 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage XOM has so much international shit that's conventional and so much cash on hand that they wrote a multibillion dollar check to buy XTO during the pre-08 gas boom, now they're divesting all that bullshit to get out of the game before the credit tightens again...lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393999) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:38 AM Author: carnelian stead must be nice making $2 Billion in PROFIT A WEEK
Fuck my ass |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:39 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage john d. rockefeller stylin on us XO faggots through the centuries (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394015) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:34 AM Author: Brilliant indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393985) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:37 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage something like that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394001) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:35 AM Author: kink-friendly curious hall national security agency idiot pumo:
activity ground to a halt for months after late 08 primarily because many operators were tied up with dry gas plays and NG prices went straight to hell with no basis for their return.
it took some time for operators to reinvent themselves in liquids/oily plays. the operations well positioned in liquids post 08 were first movers and obviously did better.
i do agree with you about needing $70-$80 a BBL to make the wells worth drilling, and i think the USD is going higher, however you do not address the supply/demand issue.
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:38 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage I think you need to read the whole thread before writing this shit, bro...lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394367) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:21 AM Author: Brilliant indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393897) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:21 AM Author: carnelian stead Joburg is great this time of year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393901) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:15 AM Author: carnelian stead care to expound on this lil breh? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393869) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:19 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage see above
also, two other things:
saltwater disposal costs stay fixed or increase while your profits decrease, which compounds the pressure you feel when the decline rate settles in after that first year
and gas is so shitty right now that it's not worth the money to compress and transport it for sale, so you just end up flaring it off and losing more money. |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:21 AM Author: carnelian stead I agree with some of your statements.
Your belief that fed tightening will lead to a correction in the oil market isn't one them. |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:23 AM Author: Brilliant indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393909) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:28 AM Author: carnelian stead Don't disagree brother. Higher borrowing costs will be bad for capital intensive industries that finance assets purchases through debt. I was just disputing the argument that Fed QE tapering would lead to a downward correction in the oil market. If anything, the decrease in production, at least domestically, would cause prices to increase. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26393941) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:37 AM Author: galvanic temple This is like reading the economist. You're a lawyer working with oil and gas clients but you're not in the oil and gas industry. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394002) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:38 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394008) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:30 AM Author: kink-friendly curious hall national security agency (he lisped, wiping his sweaty brow with his CMG apron, and then begin chopping the cilantro) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394325) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:31 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394331) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:41 AM Author: lascivious nibblets marketing idea just oil or gas too?
how will this impact midstream and downstraem? |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:46 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage You're barely in the money at $3.90/mmbtu gas. Most of the shit they've been drilling is just to HBP the leases and then subsequently shut the wells in until prices increase.
the optimist in me hopes that pressure will be applied on Gazprom around the time we get LNG exports up and running, so we can start supplying Europe right when Russia gets sanctionpwned
as for midstream, that's great for increased development in places like the Rockies where the pipelines are at capacity, but the federal and state governments have been fucking over midstream construction through public lands making it take longer (see Keystone XL for the most egregious and public example).
cheap gas, paradoxically, is great for downstream feedstock (manufacturing, chemicals, etc). It would be an interesting study to see what the equilibrium price is between downstream demand and upstream production. |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:52 AM Author: lascivious nibblets marketing idea agree for the midstream is at capacity so those assets in the Rockies should have no problem sustaining revenues esp now that bakken and those other fields in the upper midwest have no other way to transport out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394089) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:54 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage well, they can truck or train it out, which sucks but that's how they do it now
I honestly don't know why there hasn't been a massive boom in midstream development...there's an uptick, sure, but nothing like the drilling frenzy we've seen over the last few years.
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:00 AM Author: lascivious nibblets marketing idea truck and train is much more expensive and there's increasing regulations on rail transport now with those train accidents recently.
you would think they d be building shit out like crazy, seems like a lot of regulatory red tape to building pipelines |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:46 AM Author: carnelian stead Midstream guys like Enterprise, Kinder, etc. carry pretty big debt loads and generally finance pipeline construction with debt. So higher borrowing costs would see a decrease in new pipeline construction. If you couple this with lower domestic production, I would probably stay away from the midstream sector. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394050) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:50 AM Author: lascivious nibblets marketing idea i see your point, but i see that actually as a good thing for big midstream guys to snap up midstream assets on the cheap when smaller companies get hit by the credit crunch
most of those companies have big M&A coffers set aside precisely for downturns like this |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 10:58 AM Author: carnelian stead The success of the midstream sector has really been built on cheap credit and the surge in production of shale gas and tight oil. Fed tightening is going to end up fucking with both of those. |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:00 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage here's a question for you I've been pondering myself:
how long until the effects of QE tapering start to realize themselves? I think there will be a pullback starting in early 2016. I figure that's just enough time for the last of the money to float around and get used up and banks to start tightening the belt |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:07 AM Author: carnelian stead I imagine we are gonna see pullback starting the middle of next year.
But more important than the credit issue is the inflation issue. I think more businesses are concerned about inflation in the US, as well as emerging markets, than the credit markets drying up from QE tapering.
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:09 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage how bad do you think inflation will get? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394182) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:13 AM Author: carnelian stead Dunno, that's kind of the problem. The Fed doesn't know either, which is why they are taking this shoot-from-the-hip approach with QE tapering. Remember, Fed has left the door open to reinvigorate QE if they don't like what they see in US and foreign markets. Also, now that the ECB is dipping its toes in the QE water, I imagine the Fed is reexamining its tapering strategy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394209) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:15 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage lol just do bond buying forever until your balance sheet explodes, bros
guess that means more oil jerbs for all!
(by all, I mean people who already have them or know people who have them) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:17 AM Author: carnelian stead Obviously they can't do it forever, but QE is a bit like crack. Once you get a taste you're pretty much hooked forever. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394228) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:17 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage until you die of heart failure at 35, of course. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394232) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:18 AM Author: carnelian stead exactly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394236) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:18 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage fuck, tips on expatriating? There's gotta be a sweet spot to maximize earnings from this shit then a place to run when the heart attack starts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394242) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:20 AM Author: carnelian stead IDK man. Maybe move to Switzerland and short the world? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394254) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:21 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage when the heart attack starts in the US, I would imagine the eurozone will begin a stroke automatically
maybe somewhere in the third world? South America? |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:25 AM Author: carnelian stead Switzerland is still pretty insulated from the broader Euro Zone (although they were retarded to peg the Franc to the Euro).
Most emerging markets are going to get fucked by tapering, so that pretty much rules out anything in LATAM.
Idk, we should probably just all learn Mandarin and be done with it.
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:18 AM Author: Transparent bateful lay haunted graveyard Poli Sci-->Stern--> ??? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394243) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 11:31 AM Author: Brilliant indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26394330) |
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Date: September 25th, 2014 2:26 PM Author: titillating crackhouse sneaky criminal decline rates on their own don't mean much, bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26395399) |
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Date: September 26th, 2014 11:09 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage (reading comp fail) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26401465) |
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Date: September 26th, 2014 11:14 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Selfie There are a couple of literal retards from my HS at UT MBA. Job prospects pretty decent for its rank. That TX economy bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2683729&forum_id=2#26401490) |
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Date: September 26th, 2014 11:19 AM Author: cocky ultramarine home old irish cottage Retard level isn't applicable in O&G...there are many, many full retards making NYC-level paychecks and beyond in flyover country
you just have to have friends in the right places |