Hypo: Anti US Saudi Prince launches Coup
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Date: January 27th, 2015 11:02 PM Author: Magical puppy stage
its hard to say this would be our response, since its pretty close to a necessary but unstated precondition, but the US and Iran dramatically thaw relations.
a russia/saudi tie up (even if its a coup) requires either a russia/iranian split OR some sort of bizarre iranian/saudi rapprochement. both of these are pretty unlikely, but the rapprochement sounds almost impossible.
so if there is/was a split, the immediate opportunity is for us to improve iranian ties --iranian moderate politicians can use the russia/saudi tie up as evidence that their hand is forced and they need to butter up to the west again, and I suspect over the longer term (20 yr) tiemframe its ultimately a better fit, since the average resident of tehran is far more western in their tastes/politics than the average resident of riyadh.
but israel is M A F
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2793626&forum_id=2#27200918)
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Date: January 27th, 2015 11:18 PM Author: ruby rehab
10 years ago this would have meant WWIII. Israel would attack Saudis with a US approval, Muslims would attack Israel in response, US and Russia would have a proxy war in the Middle East.
Now oil would spike but the US would just frack our way out of it.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2793626&forum_id=2#27201012) |
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Date: January 27th, 2015 11:45 PM Author: Magical puppy stage
30 years is plenty of time bro. some crazy oil shock that gets us to 2 or 3 hundred a barrel would
A. be speculatively constrained by the existence of fracking but
B. just result in the right accepting aggressively pursuing alt fuels as Correct.
solar projects are already very compelling on a $/kwh basis. solar production is maybe 2 or 3x conventional fuel sources right now, and the price can only go down, so there's never going to be an oil shock to the extent there was in the 70s (where it was like a 10x price change AND everybody thought it might go on forever)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2793626&forum_id=2#27201174) |
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