What is the most plausible WWIII scenario today?
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Date: February 19th, 2015 1:48 AM Author: stimulating milky stead
Ukraine escalation?
Pakistan-India flashpoint?
China invades Taiwan?
Saudi-Iran escalation?
USA pwns self invading Fiji?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27347555) |
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Date: February 22nd, 2015 2:29 PM Author: lavender circlehead den
the OPEC - American shale price war continues to bankrupt Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, etc. Out of money and desperate for legitimacy, Putin, selling his sheeple on the story that US / Saudis have conspired to wage de facto economic war against the Russians and Iranians - preemptively launches attacks against the US, Europe, and the middle east, relying heavily upon his voluminous stores of tactical nuclear weapons.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27369580) |
Date: February 19th, 2015 9:37 AM Author: razzle burgundy pit jew
Many of those would be disastrous, but not all-enveloping the way WW2 was. For example, a Saudi-Iran war would likely not feature many players outside of NATO (I don't see anyone except terrorist groups joining Iran). Same thing with Pakistan-India...they have done that twice now and the world has managed to stay out of it. I don't see the U.S. or anyone else getting involved now that nukes are on the table.
Only a few scenarios that would be a true "world" war:
North Korea actually attacks someone, you would prolly have some kind of UN-style counter-attack with literally everyone on the globe wiping them out;
China does something in East Asia (disputed islands, Taiwan, etc);
Russia triggers NATO.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27348328)
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Date: November 30th, 2015 5:10 PM Author: Filthy bawdyhouse
China will probably prevent a humanitarian crisis in North Korea and not precipitate it. China has intel in NK and would act to prevent anything ridiculous from NK.
They are also ready to move in and setup buffer/refugee zones for their own national security because they don't want millions of starving North Koreans streaming across the border, nor do they want American military bases sitting on the Chinese border.
Invading Japan or Taiwan is extremely unlikely. China will have domestic problems if their economic growth slows any more. They can't afford any unnecessary aggression.
I don't see war in East Asia any time soon even when NK collapses. Everyone is already preparing for NK to collapse.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#29278802) |
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Date: February 19th, 2015 11:05 PM Author: stimulating milky stead
Jeb Bush assembles Coalition of the Willing (Australia, Nauru, Palau, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Botswana, St. Kitts and Nevis) to restore democracy and secure vital Fiji water supplies. After an impressive military victory, the United States installs a Coalition Provisional Government. After purging the old regime officers, the CPG calls for elections. Indigenous suicide bomber attacks polling station with sewer skunk white woman farts. Coalition troops attempt to provide security, but Tuvalu tragically outsources to crazed Taiwanese NOWAGS. Protracted insurgency begins. Oil prices rise as U.S. despairs of a military solution. Jewish speculation on Wall Street leads to global financial meltodwn. Nigger riots break out. Dollar collapses as a reserve currency. Hyperinflation, breadlines, endless millennial blog updates. Two fratty military bros have horny consensual drunk sex with the barracks slut. "Was I raped?" she asks Twitter. Xoxo has plenty of lulz and starts a megathread impersonating the rape bros. A megapoaster goes too far, hacks into NORAD and changes the callsign to NOWAG. China goes nuts, fires nukes precisely targeted at dem white women. U.S. fires back, misses and hits Russia.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27353298) |
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Date: February 19th, 2015 10:55 PM Author: Puce free-loading school water buffalo
never heard about this little thing?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Rebellion
The Taiping Rebellion was a massive civil war in southern China from 1850 to 1864, against the ruling Manchu Qing dynasty. It was a millenarian movement led by Hong Xiuquan, who announced that he had received visions, in which he learned that he was the younger brother of Jesus. At least 20 million people died, mainly civilians, in one of the deadliest military conflicts in history.[4]
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27353205) |
Date: February 19th, 2015 11:36 AM Author: Electric fuchsia antidepressant drug
China making a power play on the South China Seas and sparking an Asian explosion that drags in US v Russia etc.
But most likely use of a nuke is almost certainly some Russian loose nuke going missing and turning up in a World Cup game or something
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27348802) |
Date: February 19th, 2015 1:43 PM Author: Vigorous gaped native
Russia is the odd man out. The US, EU, and China are all rational actors and too economically intertwined for war to make sense. Russia has the military power but no economic clout. It's hard to see what Russia has to offer China to draw them into war with their biggest economic partners.
So any realistic scenario would either be a "world war" where the most populous country with the second largest economy remains neutral, or else a 3 way US/EU/China gangbang on Russia with China making a power play on Siberia.
China will continue to prod at boundaries in the SCS but there's nothing worth going to war for there either.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27349512) |
Date: February 19th, 2015 11:02 PM Author: Puce free-loading school water buffalo
at this moment the most likely scenario is russian powerplay in estonia or latvia. they're next on the chopping block, but problematically they're in NATO.
both have large ethnic russian populations. and even more russian speakers. it could not be surprising if russia will test the waters with covert supported russian nationalist uprisings.
i have no idea how nato would react to this.... if conflict breaks out it wouldn't be surprising to see china take the opportunity to invade taiwan.
i think that'd qualify as wwiii.
or a loose nuke could go off in a major NATO city. that'd stir up some trouble for sure.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27353271)
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Date: February 21st, 2015 10:51 PM Author: exhilarant indecent mediation messiness
OK bros I think we need to define our terms here. To me, to be a "World War", you gotta have more than two major participants. This excludes China-USA fighting over the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, because while that would be a major great power war, it would not be a world war with big groups of allies going at each other.
I think for a "world war", it's gonna be something involving Russia or Kashmir
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27366517) |
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Date: February 21st, 2015 10:55 PM Author: Puce free-loading school water buffalo
why would Kashmir necessarily involve more participants than taiwan?
i think the opposite is actually more likely. far more interested parties in relation to taiwan than to kashmir.
who gives a fug about kashmir besides shitskins?
taiwan on the other hand is a mid size fully industrialized market and production center in a critical strategic position... japan, australia, korea, would be likely participants.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27366539) |
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Date: February 22nd, 2015 2:11 PM Author: Shivering Swollen University
"WW1 started over stupid bullshit in Bosnia"
Exactly, everyone in this thread is assigning way too much rationality to global actors, and focusing too much on the handful of highly-discussed potential flashpoints (e.g., Kashmir,Taiwan, etc.).
MAJOR wars have been started over stupid shit. I could see something like the Japanese textbook controversy instigating a war between Japan and China, and thus bringing China and the U.S. into a general war. Alternatively, the Balkans have always been a great source of wars. Maybe another Balkans ethnic genocide issue spins out of control if Russia backs one side and we back another?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27369478) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2015 1:01 PM Author: henna alcoholic people who are hurt
"Big groups of allies going at each other"? Sorry, bro, but I just don't see that happening any time soon. To have "big groups of allies going at each other," that presupposes that both sides have allies. The only two countries in the world that could realistically pose any kind of challenge to the U.S. are Russia and China. But what allies do either of these countries have? North Korea? A Syria regime that is on the brink of collapse?
True, China has been giving money to countries in Latin America (bypassing the World Bank/IMF) to try to build alliances. But this seems to be motivating entirely by the desire to secure access to resources/raw materials (particularly oil) rather than forming military alliances. China thus far has shown zero interest in becoming a global military superpower like the U.S. Their current strategy focuses on becoming a regional power that is strong enough to keep the U.S. from meddling in a conflict over Taiwan or the SCC, but they have no capability (nor any indication of a desire to have the capability) to fight a military conflict outside their home region.
The closest thing you could have to a world war these days would involve Putin causing enough problems in Eastern Europe that NATO decides to go Article 5 on his ass or some conflict involving China and Taiwan or its neighbors in the SCC. But I have a hard time imagining that either Russia or China has many allies fighting on their side.
The only possible way I see this developing into a "World War" under your definition is if China and Russia decided to form some kind of alliance against the U.S. I can't think of any reason they would do that, though, other than a desire to stick it to the Yanks. That seems unlikely, though. Both countries have to realize that even if they form an alliance, they would probably lose a conventional war against the U.S. and its allies. And the costs of losing such a war would greatly outweigh any benefit from an unlikely victory.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27376318) |
Date: February 22nd, 2015 10:41 AM Author: peach resort
There's plenty of grudges and disputes among powers, but neither party is willing to go balls deep into war because it isn't worth the costs
To fulfill the definition of a WW3, I'd see a conflict across at least two continents.
My guess is a war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, with the US/UK/Saudi Arabia/Sunni Kingdoms/pro western Eastern Euro nations like Poland one one side, and Russia/Iran/Syria on another. US/Saudi nations will win that war, further plunging Russia into irrelevancy. It will be a limited war as well, with death tolls at most "only" a few 100k
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27368568)
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