Pakistan-India flashpoint?

China invades Taiwan?

Saudi-Iran escalation?

USA pwns self invading Fiji?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27347555)

he'd be pulled out of office that day

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27348539)

Only a few scenarios that would be a true "world" war:

North Korea actually attacks someone, you would prolly have some kind of UN-style counter-attack with literally everyone on the globe wiping them out;

China does something in East Asia (disputed islands, Taiwan, etc);

Russia triggers NATO.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27348328)

They are also ready to move in and setup buffer/refugee zones for their own national security because they don't want millions of starving North Koreans streaming across the border, nor do they want American military bases sitting on the Chinese border.

Invading Japan or Taiwan is extremely unlikely. China will have domestic problems if their economic growth slows any more. They can't afford any unnecessary aggression.

I don't see war in East Asia any time soon even when NK collapses. Everyone is already preparing for NK to collapse.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#29278802)

It would take full scale invasion of a NATO member and even then the US isn't obligated to commit fully to the war.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27348743)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiping_Rebellion

The Taiping Rebellion was a massive civil war in southern China from 1850 to 1864, against the ruling Manchu Qing dynasty. It was a millenarian movement led by Hong Xiuquan, who announced that he had received visions, in which he learned that he was the younger brother of Jesus. At least 20 million people died, mainly civilians, in one of the deadliest military conflicts in history.[4]

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27353205)

When did China become a country with one identity?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#29287399)

But most likely use of a nuke is almost certainly some Russian loose nuke going missing and turning up in a World Cup game or something

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27348802)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27349428)

all of this "China and the U.S. could never go to war because they trade with each other!" nonsense has been debunked before

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27369436)

the us starts guessing who done it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27349290)

So any realistic scenario would either be a "world war" where the most populous country with the second largest economy remains neutral, or else a 3 way US/EU/China gangbang on Russia with China making a power play on Siberia.

China will continue to prod at boundaries in the SCS but there's nothing worth going to war for there either.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27349512)

(faggoty Austrian politician circa 1912)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27353229)

both have large ethnic russian populations. and even more russian speakers. it could not be surprising if russia will test the waters with covert supported russian nationalist uprisings.

i have no idea how nato would react to this.... if conflict breaks out it wouldn't be surprising to see china take the opportunity to invade taiwan.

i think that'd qualify as wwiii.

or a loose nuke could go off in a major NATO city. that'd stir up some trouble for sure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27353271)

Even in this nightmare worst-case scenario, I have to imagine that Putin just incinerates the troops marching on Moscow. He has to be smart enough to realize that launching ICBM's against the West would result in nuclear Armageddon and the end of civilization, so I don't think he goes that far. It could still get pretty scary, though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27354215)

I think for a "world war", it's gonna be something involving Russia or Kashmir

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27366517)

i think the opposite is actually more likely. far more interested parties in relation to taiwan than to kashmir.

who gives a fug about kashmir besides shitskins?

taiwan on the other hand is a mid size fully industrialized market and production center in a critical strategic position... japan, australia, korea, would be likely participants.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27366539)

I love Australia, Japan, Korea. They are all good US allies. But they are not Great Powers.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27366546)

I think secondary countries like Russia and Iran would mostly get involved by trying to exploit America's distraction by being more aggressive. Maybe we get an Iran/Saudi war on the side or somesuch.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27368522)

Exactly, everyone in this thread is assigning way too much rationality to global actors, and focusing too much on the handful of highly-discussed potential flashpoints (e.g., Kashmir,Taiwan, etc.).

MAJOR wars have been started over stupid shit. I could see something like the Japanese textbook controversy instigating a war between Japan and China, and thus bringing China and the U.S. into a general war. Alternatively, the Balkans have always been a great source of wars. Maybe another Balkans ethnic genocide issue spins out of control if Russia backs one side and we back another?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27369478)

True, China has been giving money to countries in Latin America (bypassing the World Bank/IMF) to try to build alliances. But this seems to be motivating entirely by the desire to secure access to resources/raw materials (particularly oil) rather than forming military alliances. China thus far has shown zero interest in becoming a global military superpower like the U.S. Their current strategy focuses on becoming a regional power that is strong enough to keep the U.S. from meddling in a conflict over Taiwan or the SCC, but they have no capability (nor any indication of a desire to have the capability) to fight a military conflict outside their home region.

The closest thing you could have to a world war these days would involve Putin causing enough problems in Eastern Europe that NATO decides to go Article 5 on his ass or some conflict involving China and Taiwan or its neighbors in the SCC. But I have a hard time imagining that either Russia or China has many allies fighting on their side.

The only possible way I see this developing into a "World War" under your definition is if China and Russia decided to form some kind of alliance against the U.S. I can't think of any reason they would do that, though, other than a desire to stick it to the Yanks. That seems unlikely, though. Both countries have to realize that even if they form an alliance, they would probably lose a conventional war against the U.S. and its allies. And the costs of losing such a war would greatly outweigh any benefit from an unlikely victory.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27376318)

To fulfill the definition of a WW3, I'd see a conflict across at least two continents.

My guess is a war in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, with the US/UK/Saudi Arabia/Sunni Kingdoms/pro western Eastern Euro nations like Poland one one side, and Russia/Iran/Syria on another. US/Saudi nations will win that war, further plunging Russia into irrelevancy. It will be a limited war as well, with death tolls at most "only" a few 100k

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2812319&forum_id=2#27368568)