Ran into dude from my high school who "day trades"
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Date: July 20th, 2015 11:17 AM Author: Frozen ceo area
Ok so every quant geek on the street has the same data being fed into machine learning algos yet these persistent patterns exist and nobody knows to trade them but weird dudes on internet forums?
Every good day trader in the late 90s/early 2000s was reading the Level II/tape. I don't know anyone who made money with technicals. Of course now machines are way way better at reading Level II than any human could ever hope to be. Day trading, at least in US stocks, is 100% dead for the small guy.
Prove me wrong. Start posting your entry points in AAPL along with where you'd exit for a winner/loss every time you see a "trend" breaking out and we'll see how good you are.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28371524) |
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Date: July 20th, 2015 11:05 AM Author: Disrespectful Cyan People Who Are Hurt Pit
You don't size up a position in one day
A $5B fund putting on a 10% position is $500M. At 10% of volume (about what my fund does normally) it takes 5 days to finish for something like GE
But your investable universe certainly shrinks as your AUM grows. It's just not efficient for analysts to be looking at $300M market cap companies when that's going to be like .2% of the fund
It is tougher to outperform as you scale. At some point it becomes an AUM gathering game vs an outperformance game. You want to stay close to market performance while gathering a bunch of assets and live off that 2%.
The rationale is during a downturn you should significantly outperform given short exposure.
This is why you always see spin outs in HFs. The PMs/founders just want to aggregate assets while the hungry junior guys without points in the GP want to outperform
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28371448) |
Date: July 19th, 2015 8:42 PM Author: 180 digit ratio volcanic crater
he would be better off going to a poker room and buy in for 300 in a 1-3NL game and just wait for AA/KK/QQ and play super tight
easy 100~150 dollars a day if you are willing to sit for 5-6 hrs
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28368052) |
Date: July 19th, 2015 10:24 PM Author: Lime shaky crackhouse mexican
He could be building his bankroll or just BS'ing
If your working with smaller amounts of money it takes time to build up to the point where you can make solid, decent income off of each idea you have.
If your swing trading or going for a few high conviction names and riding them out for a long time - having 10k~20k per idea that you are comfortable with can really lead to something. Assuming you can make 50% profit over a year or two per name, you can do well for a few years and then reposition yourself when you have a good sized portfolio
It's slow going in the begining but you have to have the discipline and you need that time to get comfortable and learn as you go because you could really fuck around and wipe out your capital just when you need it.
I'd say having around 75K+ can allow you to make some decent sized wagers, but you need another side hustle or a job at least in the begining (preferably the whole time) because the stress of NEEDING a trade is what can get someone broke.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28368864) |
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Date: July 19th, 2015 10:31 PM Author: Lime shaky crackhouse mexican
Just the usual Ben Graham reading, and then move into a few other value guys like Klarman. Another good one is Common Stocks; Uncommon Profits by Phil Fisher.
So much of successful investing is trial and error, observation, practice but those books really help you get to an understanding of what to look for.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28368927)
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Date: July 19th, 2015 10:39 PM Author: Fighting burgundy public bath boiling water
LOL at the day trading flame being perpetrated on this board.
Unless you work for a hedge fund, your money should be in an index fund.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28369007)
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Date: July 19th, 2015 10:45 PM Author: overrated theater
lol no
What you're saying only holds true if one doesn't really know what they're doing. However, I assume that someone doing this full time isn't clueless and is confident they can profit consistently.
You don't need to work at a hedge fund to consistently profit from the stock market. The only reason people work at hedge funds instead of just investing on their own is because they don't risk any of their own capital when they just have a job somewhere.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28369048) |
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Date: July 20th, 2015 10:55 AM Author: Disrespectful Cyan People Who Are Hurt Pit
We have such a gigantic information advantage over your normal day trader that it's like a guy at the blackjack table counting cards/following the hit/stand rules 100% vs a guy generally not following the rules and doing shit like hitting on 17
Sure that guy might make money and might even randomly outperform but it's blind luck
We have access to management teams. We can call customers. We can call suppliers. We can call experts. We can have people sitting in fucking parking lots counting trucks that leave / arrive.
A day trader? Some seeking alpha articles and yahoo finance message boards?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28371386) |
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Date: August 22nd, 2015 12:07 PM Author: Sapphire house french chef
i once downloaded a PDF of some technical analysis aka DAYTRADE book, and it was ASTROLOGY-tier levels of fallacy
OH THIS STOCK IS CRASHING FASTER THAN USUAL, ITS NOT FOLLOWING THE TRIANGLE RULE, BETTER BUY NOW!
*place your money in stock X*
*stock crashes*
*you lose half your money*
*you hold out because the book said 'its just market noise bro'
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28602770) |
Date: July 19th, 2015 10:53 PM Author: cream spectacular cruise ship
if it's $100 net of all expenses and taxes, that's a lot different than "making $100" on a trade, then subtracting out the $14 for the fidelity buy & sell and the short term capital gains tax and state tax, leaving him with like $50
either way, good for this dood if he can actually live that way but odds are way against him over time
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28369142) |
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Date: July 20th, 2015 10:40 AM Author: Frozen ceo area
That's why this flame is tough to believe. Let's say he bets $10k on each trade and pays $28 in fees per buy/sell (0.28%), average stock price is like $50 so he pays 0.01 spread to buy and sell for 200 shares = 50*0.01*200*2 = $4 = 0.04%.
If the market is totally unpredictable, his EV is ~0.9968 * $ bet, meaning he'll slowly lose money to fees and spread over a long enough time scale. To get to break even, he needs an edge of almost 0.5%. Is that impossible to do, no, but on an intra-day timescale you are competing with people who are much faster and smarter who don't start every trade 0.5% in the hole.
Also with so little capital, a run of bad luck can ruin this guy easily even if he has an edge.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28371290) |
Date: August 25th, 2015 3:23 AM Author: Rusted Corn Cake
shit, should prob. make this it's ow subthread.
honestly, i don't see how someone can play the stock market with a small bankroll and "win" consistently enough to live on. (niche) collectibles seem a lot easier, because price discovery is SO much slower with less participants/buyers in the respective markets.
you can be a big fish.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#28620239) |
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Date: November 12th, 2015 11:25 AM Author: Magenta plaza
rate my strategy that I've made about 50% on in the past two weeks:
Watch a list of the top ten gainers for the day. There is always a huge run by at least a few of them for about 8-30% from 9:30-Noon on any given day. When you see one running up, go in, set a stop loss, and make a few percent, then get out. Repeat if you need to, but making 5% a day is good.
I don't even have the correct software yet, but I am buying it and planning to watch buy and sell orders. When sell or buy orders overwhelm the other, that means one is in control of the stock for those few moments, causing stock to dive or spike.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#29166485) |
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Date: November 12th, 2015 11:46 AM Author: self-absorbed marvelous stage main people
i brought up doing something like this a couple months ago, everyone here shit on me:
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2962248&mc=19&forum_id=2
keep us poasted on how it goes. im interested.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#29166627) |
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Date: November 12th, 2015 1:42 PM Author: self-absorbed marvelous stage main people
this website posts tops gainers and losers pretty early in the day with their volume
http://finviz.com/
my idea was logging in right as the market opens, see who's gaining the most, watch for high volume, buy that stock, then sell after a gain in the afternoon, wash rinse repeat with other stocks the next day etc.
after so many days of doing this, you would slowly start to make $$$
xo was saying it was stupid bc trading fees/taxes would eat everything and that i'd have to trade on margin, so i didnt end up doing it
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#29167279) |
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Date: November 12th, 2015 2:30 PM Author: vivacious yellow nursing home gaping
You need to backtest this. Lots of stocks after good after hours news (like earnings) will gap up on open, but then will give up some of those gains as the gap fills. There is a lot that goes into analyzing whether a morning bounce is going to retreat or whether you can momentum trade it.
I've personally been getting into options trading, and more specifically being a net SELLER of options. This is a good way to consistently make money because over time, the deck is stacked in favor of sellers.
About a month in, I'm down moderately. Most of that is due to legit bad luck on two trades . . . I expect trades like that from time to time but getting two with the amount of trading I'm done was statistically unlikely. Even with those two trades, I'd be up slightly had I not mismanaged some other trades, but I've already learned a shitload and won't make those same mistakes again (not hindsight bias mistakes but rather legit fundamental errors).
For example, the one trade where I bought instead of sold options actually went very well because I bought Chevron calls and the stock skyrocketed, leaving me up over 200% in a short time. I knew I needed to lock those gains in because oil has been range bound and the stock was likely to pull back, but I tried to sell the options for the middle of the bid-ask spread, not paying attention to the fact that they had low volume and weren't very liquid anymore due to being so deep in the money. The stock had a huge pullback as predicted, and I lost a 200% gain trying to avoid taking a 5% hit on the spread.
The above was definitely the most speculative trade that I've done, and I did it mainly because I planned to potentially exercise the option to rebalance stock holdings.
My normal trades usually involve selling bull put spreads, selling iron condors, and selling covered calls. The simple covered call is probably the best way to make money but also needs the most capital (another alternative is selling cash secured puts on stock you'd like to buy on a dip, but again that needs a lot of capital).
I think anyone smart can make consistent money trading options as long as they stick to the lower risk plays and act as a net seller of options. There is a large learning curve but options can be analyzed in a legitimate, statistical way, as opposed do day trading where you look at candles and trendlines and go with your gut.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#29167551) |
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Date: November 12th, 2015 3:34 PM Author: Magenta plaza
Do you do this full time?
In my experience the jump shortly after opening is usually pretty substantial, like 15% after already having a huge gain on opening. It's not too hard to spot a stock in this area that has high volume and is making moves, quickly jump in and out and make 3%. I don't even have the software yet to look at candles and buy and sell orders. But when sell or buy orders overwhelm the market, it seems like it would be a good idea to jump in, because sellers or buyers will control that market. When I get that I think I can make even more money.
I also put in a stop-loss so if the trade fucks up I won't lose much at all. This has only happened to me once, and I immediately found another stock and covered for it x5.
Sounds like you know what you're doing with the options trading.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2940220&forum_id=2#29167939) |
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