Donald Trump campaigning in Appleton, Wis., March 30. PHOTO: SCOTT OLSON/GETTY IMAGES

By KIMBERLEY A. STRASSEL

Updated March 31, 2016 7:21 p.m. ET

619 COMMENTS

Wisconsin (Ripon, to be exact) is the birthplace of the Republican Party. So perhaps it’s fitting that Wisconsin may be the state that takes back the Republican Party from Donald Trump.

The Badger State is gearing up to hand the real-estate mogul a defeat, and in the process potentially reroute, yet again, the GOP primary. Polls show Ted Cruz beating Mr. Trump, and some prognosticators have gone so far as to suggest the billionaire could place third—behind even John Kasich. The opposition to Mr. Trump is deep and wide enough that he could lose most districts.

This rebuke has taken a lot of the media and political class by surprise. They figured Mr. Trump would do in this upper Midwestern state what he’d done in other states with a moderate or purplish tint: win. What they missed is Wisconsin’s recent political history and changed Republican culture—which have combined to make the state fertile ground for a Trump takedown.

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Ethics and Public Policy Center Senior Fellow Mona Charen on the political consequences of Donald Trump’s gaffe. Photo credit: Zuma Press.

Part of Mr. Trump’s problem is simple logistics. Wisconsin was put on the calendar as a stand-alone primary, with two clear weeks before and after it. The field is now down to three candidates. All of this has allowed for far greater scrutiny of Mr. Trump, in the form of heavy in-state advertising and earned media.

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But it’s the in-state dynamics that are hurting him most. Wisconsin has been in continuous political warfare for six years. Over that time, Republicans lived through Gov. Scott Walker’s epic battle for his Act 10 public-sector bargaining reform; judicial races; a Senate recall effort; a gubernatorial recall effort; a political assault in a vicious John Doe probe; another election cycle; campaign-finance reform; an overhaul of the state’s ethics body; a right-to-work law; and prevailing-wage reform. To name a few.

The state is also proudly home to the speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, and a governor (Scott Walker) who ran for his party's presidential nomination. The result is a conservative electorate that is highly informed, highly energized and highly involved. The fights so far have given voters an acute appreciation of the conservative principles at stake, and a pride in defeating union and liberal priorities. They have radar sensitive to “fake” Republicans, and many aren’t keen on what they are hearing from Mr. Trump.

Wisconsin’s recent political battles also resulted in a dramatic shift in the state’s communications culture. Conservative wariness of liberal, in-state newspapers turned to outright loathing as the print media exhibited a continual bias against Mr. Walker and Republicans. Conservatives as a result made talk radio their news hub, and learned to communicate through online and social media.

Four “talkers” in particular— Charlie Sykes, Vicki McKenna, Jerry Bader and Mark Belling—exercise enormous influence, and cover nearly every inch of the state media market. These days, politicians routinely break their news on radio. Gov. Walker announced his recent endorsement of Ted Cruz on the Sykes show. The new chief justice of the state Supreme Court, Patience Roggensack, granted her first interview to Mr. Sykes rather than to a newspaper.

Mr. Trump stumbled onto three of the four biggest shows on Monday, seemingly unaware that all the hosts are part of the “Never Trump” movement. Mr. Sykes likened Mr. Trump to a “12-year-old bully” and insisted he was no conservative. Ms. McKenna was similarly rough, though Mr. Trump did himself no favors by hanging up on her.

He’s also won no votes by lambasting both Mr. Walker and Paul Ryan. Mr. Trump might have been looking at Mr. Walker’s statewide approval numbers (in the 40s) and figured that hitting Mr. Walker’s tax cuts was smart politics. But the governor’s approval with Republicans is significantly higher—likely in the 70% to 80% range.

Mr. Ryan also is widely liked and admired among Republicans in the state, in particular because he still actively engages in state battles. He regularly goes on talk radio; he has openly supported Walker reforms; he helps out state legislative candidates. Mr. Cruz, by contrast to Mr. Trump, clearly was well briefed on the broader environment. His praise of Messrs. Walker and Ryan earns him strong applause at events, and he’s grasped the power of the state radio.

Wisconsin meanwhile could be huge. Mr. Trump—if he loses badly enough—could come out of this primary with only a half-dozen delegates out of 42. That would all but tank his ability to reach the 1,237 mark for the nomination. Wisconsin could tip this into a contested convention. A bad enough Trump loss might also reset the views of voters in the Northeast primaries coming next.

But perhaps the bigger potential for Wisconsin is to reinforce a growing view among organized Republicans that Mr. Trump is indeed a party usurper, and that they have a duty to use an open convention to stop him. The birthplace of the GOP—and the home of one of the nation’s most war-bloodied and conservative crowds—looks ready to tank Mr. Trump.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3183116&forum_id=2#30184648)

Heck, they might as well be CANADIANS

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3183116&forum_id=2#30184861)