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Are Trump's h2h polls a result of a SJW backlash or do ppl just not like hill?
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Date: May 31st, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Vermilion ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30594814) |
Date: May 31st, 2016 4:10 PM Author: hyperventilating very tactful indirect expression water buffalo Only 1-2% of the voting block are know what SJW means. And I doubt anyone outside of XOXO/Stormfront actually think that's what Trump represents. Most Trump supporters legit think we need a wall or to renegotiate trade deals. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30594990) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:12 PM Author: charismatic glassy senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595006) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:14 PM Author: trip hospital antidepressant drug 100% of them know about SJW's transgender bathroom laws though, so there's that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595452) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:11 PM Author: Underhanded scarlet police squad useless brakes They might not use or know the term "SJW" but there's a definite backlash against libs/political correctness underfoot that is fueling his rise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30594999) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:15 PM Author: hyperventilating very tactful indirect expression water buffalo I don't think there is any such backlash. These are base voters who railed against homo marriage in the 2000s who've just moved into anti-tranny and anti-blm as their new rallying cry. These are just simpletons who need a cultural rallying cry to drown out their bleak existence. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595027) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:20 PM Author: effete supple casino fortuitous meteor no; these are generally non-voters who are being motivated to vote by what is seen as a nationalist candidate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595078) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:21 PM Author: Underhanded scarlet police squad useless brakes Oh you mean the social conservative cruzmos? Yeah they love trump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595082) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Big meetinghouse skinny woman more like they're tired of being shut out of political discourse and voting for a party that doesn't stand up for them on the cultural stage. they wouldn't be so mad if the mandarins threw them a bone and treated them like members of society. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30597184) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:13 PM Author: Heady Burgundy Step-uncle's House from him getting his party's nomination like 2 weeks before her (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595012) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:26 PM Author: purple passionate kitchen cumskin Hillary still doesn't have hers and is limping across the finish line.
Trump's rivals dropped out 5 weeks ago.
And plenty of people predicted, wrongly, that Trump would have a tough time consolidating the party, but he did it pretty much immediately per polls just after. Clinton's consolidation is still an open question and looking less likely every day.
Her scandals keep growing worse. She's lied about every aspect of the email problem, her foundation is increasingly under fire, and Bernie people ever more bitter. Not to mention a large portion of her base is young and flaky, uninspired by her, and see the Democratic Party as establishment jackals who killed their candidate. |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Heady Burgundy Step-uncle's House On NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday, the always-prescient moderator Chuck Todd said much the same thing but approached it in another way. First Todd pointed to the May 15-19 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, noting that Sanders bested Trump in the survey by 15 points, 54 to 39 percent, while Clinton had a scant 3-point edge over Trump, 46 to 43 percent. Todd then calculated that if 70 percent of the voters who supported Sanders against Trump subsequently moved into Clinton’s corner, she would then have an 8-point lead, 51 to 43 percent.
Shifting 70 percent of Sanders’s supporters into the Clinton column in the May 13-17 CBS News/New York Times poll would enlarge her lead over Trump from 6 points, 47 to 41 percent, to 9 points, 50 to 41 percent. Doing the same thing using the May 14-17 Fox News survey, which showed Trump ahead by 3 points, 45 to 42 percent, would produce a tie, 45 to 45 percent. Todd pointed out that in the first 2008 NBC/WSJ poll after Clinton dropped out against Barack Obama, Obama moved up 3 points, a sign that Clinton supporters were getting in line. This is a natural development after contested nominations are settled. |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:02 PM Author: copper idiot partner Oh what analysis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595391) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:03 PM Author: Heady Burgundy Step-uncle's House yeah, it's pretty ridiculous to expect 30% of sanders voters to move to the trump column (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595397) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:14 PM Author: copper idiot partner (faggot who megapoasted for months about how Trump was a Clinton plant who would run 3d party) Just do assume 100% of Sanders voters will participate in the election
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Heady Burgundy Step-uncle's House (low reading comp) it didn't say 100% of them would participate. it said the polls would look different if 70 and 30 percent of them would express support for clinton and trump respectively if sanders wasn't an option. LJL AT YOUR LOW READING COMP ROFL. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595459) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:17 PM Author: copper idiot partner Are you dumb? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595463) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:22 PM Author: purple passionate kitchen cumskin It's the biggest open question, besides whether Hillary will be indicted or otherwise tank due to the scandal.
We'll have to see how polls shape up re Berniemos (the ones not currently polling for Clinton). What we do know is that they're far less enthusiastic about Clinton, at best.
This will effect turnout since these contain a lot of activists, now deflated by their shitty nominee. They won't be leading get out the vote drives or making calls.
It won't be 70/30. A substantial amount will stay home, perhaps most.
And really, we just don't know how enthusiasm and turnout will play out. We do know that Republican primary voting is up bigly while Democrats are down.
Also, Hillary still has growing scandals to deal with, and they're bigger than Trump's. |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Heady Burgundy Step-uncle's House turnout can be low among sanders supporters in a way that helps clinton if their support still goes 70/30 in clinton's favor. she's still winning even while he's still a factor. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595493) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:56 PM Author: purple passionate kitchen cumskin She's barely winning, in national polls which may not reflect electoral votes, and is only getting weaker.
She may cop enough sandersmos to win, I grant you that. But I have every reason to believe Democrat turnout will be dogshit compared to the last two cycles, and possibly by a huge margin.
We have five full months of Trump smearing her left to go. |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 6:02 PM Author: Heady Burgundy Step-uncle's House turnout will be driven by unfavorables, ie people turning out to vote against rather than for a candidate. every reliable dem. demographic viscerally hates trump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595683) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 6:15 PM Author: purple passionate kitchen cumskin Historically it doesn't work that way, and Hillary is equally hated by the right, and Democrats have a harder time coalescing than Republicans.
Also, haters aside, Trump has a solid base who would die for him. |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 9:45 PM Author: Violent Set Mother If you believe democratic turnout will be low this election you are a true dumb. There will probably be record all time high black and Hispanic turnout. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30597461) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 5:11 PM Author: effete supple casino fortuitous meteor "he always-prescient moderator Chuck Todd"
lol, wtf? was this written by chuck todd's publicist? |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 6:19 PM Author: mustard arousing sweet tailpipe den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595744) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:20 PM Author: effete supple casino fortuitous meteor trump is pulling in an incredible amount of MALE support. even among youngs. that alone accounts for a big advantage relative to mittens. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595068) |
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Date: May 31st, 2016 4:21 PM Author: Beady-eyed Bawdyhouse Trump Supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3239097&forum_id=2#30595089) |