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ATTENTION LIBS: HILLARY WILL LOSE PENNSYLVANIA
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| Irradiated Potus Church | 11/11/16 |
| hateful plaza haunted graveyard | 05/20/17 |
| aqua tanning salon | 07/29/16 |
| Nubile disrespectful library | 07/29/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| Nubile disrespectful library | 07/29/16 |
| narrow-minded cocky weed whacker location | 07/29/16 |
| aqua tanning salon | 07/29/16 |
| narrow-minded cocky weed whacker location | 07/29/16 |
| aqua tanning salon | 07/29/16 |
| narrow-minded cocky weed whacker location | 07/29/16 |
| Wild big native | 04/17/19 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| opaque market | 07/29/16 |
| Peach Property | 07/29/16 |
| narrow-minded cocky weed whacker location | 07/29/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| Haunting Orange Mediation Indirect Expression | 07/29/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| Haunting Orange Mediation Indirect Expression | 07/29/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| Haunting Orange Mediation Indirect Expression | 07/29/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| Zippy floppy brunch | 07/29/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 07/29/16 |
| Zippy floppy brunch | 07/29/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 11/09/16 |
| fragrant well-lubricated orchestra pit legend | 11/09/16 |
| Awkward whorehouse selfie | 11/09/16 |
| Passionate state | 11/11/16 |
| Multi-colored Purple National Hissy Fit | 11/09/16 |
| amber stimulating pit faggot firefighter | 11/09/16 |
| Mind-boggling Deer Antler | 11/09/16 |
| lavender effete voyeur degenerate | 11/09/16 |
| Unhinged Wonderful Boltzmann | 11/09/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 11/09/16 |
| learning disabled crusty senate | 11/09/16 |
| Alcoholic Locus Personal Credit Line | 11/09/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 11/11/16 |
| coiffed idiot police squad | 11/11/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 11/11/16 |
| blathering principal's office | 11/11/16 |
| tripping liquid oxygen cumskin | 11/11/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 11/11/16 |
| Scarlet Exhilarant Field Keepsake Machete | 11/11/16 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 04/17/19 |
| Olive low-t sneaky criminal | 04/17/19 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 04/17/19 |
| soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake | 04/17/19 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: July 29th, 2016 9:12 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake Voter registration is down heavily. It's down to about 8,330,595 (2004 was 8.366, 2008 was 8.755 and 2012 was back down to 8.508). Dems are switching voter registration and if the turnout trend holds it will be Hillary's people that don't vote.
In between 2008 and 2012 the 125,215 Dems switched to GOP, and 78,224 GOP switched to Dems.
The voter turnout in 2008 was 6,015,477 with the Obama getting 3,276,363 votes and McCain getting 2,655,885. In 2012, the voter turnout was 5,753,546, which means 261,931 fewer people voted. Interestingly enough Romney won 2,680,434 votes, 24,549 more than McCain did while Obama won 2,990,274 votes, 286,089 votes fewer than he did in 2008. To break that down, the actual voting age population increased 223,949 people, yet voter registration dropped 247,573 people and the actual voter turnout decreased 4.35 percent to less than 2004 voter turn out and Romney increased McCain's votes by .92 percent and Obama received 8.73 percent fewer votes from 2008.
Now for my favorite statistic. In between 2008 and 2015 192,521 democrats changed parties to GOP and 124,626 changed from GOP to Dem.
In 2015, 30,482 democrats switched to GOP and 17,289 republican switched to the Dems. Not a crazy number, right?
Are you ready for the fun part?!?!
As of July 25, 2016, 80,674 democrats and 40,537 others changed their party registration to GOP. IN THE WEEK OF 7/18/16 to 7/25/16 ALONE 1,041 DEMS AND 456 OTHERS CHANGED TO GOP. During the same time periods 28,522 Republicans and 54,587 others changed to Dems (2016 YTD) and 603 GOP and 692 others switched to Dem (week of 7/18).
It doesn't look so good for Hill Dawg. |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Irradiated Potus Church prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31885753) |
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Date: May 20th, 2017 8:32 PM Author: hateful plaza haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#33354415) |
Date: July 29th, 2016 9:27 PM Author: aqua tanning salon http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=3305449&mc=6&forum_id=2
she will run up female turnout in the suburbs |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 9:30 PM Author: Nubile disrespectful library was in western PA a few weeks ago. non stop ads of Trump making fun of the disabled reporter. banking on suburban women hating him, I think (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31064920) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake Women are cruel and vile creatures. Of all the stupid shit he has said about women, why would making fun of a retarded effete lib reporter Draw the ire of republican UMC women? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31064998) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Nubile disrespectful library no fuckin clue but i'm guessing their focus groups zeroed in on that, because they were going hard on that theme (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065115) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 9:49 PM Author: narrow-minded cocky weed whacker location dems win it every election and they had better primary turnout there again this year (which wasnt the case in other blue states):
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/pennsylvania
sorry reptile. theres just no reason to expect PA to vote differently than it has every election since 1988 |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:01 PM Author: aqua tanning salon they had worse primary turnout than in 2008. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065105) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: narrow-minded cocky weed whacker location no shit? wow never would have guessed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065114) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: aqua tanning salon enthusiasm isn't there for hillary. that's a fact. whoever wins PA will win it as narrowly as Kerry did in 2004, 50-49 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065144) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: narrow-minded cocky weed whacker location or gore in 2000. or clinton in 92 and 96. or obama in 08 and 12 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065153) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 9:40 PM Author: Wild big native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#38103863) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake Yeah except for the numbers I have provided show that the state's numbers are shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065243) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 9:59 PM Author: opaque market lol no she'll win it handily (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065092) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Peach Property she is up 9 in the latest poll.
CRACK XO ANALYSIS |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:06 PM Author: narrow-minded cocky weed whacker location you will be put on the train for citing unfavorable math (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065163) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:15 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake That's a stupid poll and we all know that they are both outliers.
Even if she wins it will not be an Obama esque victory. It is going to be fucking tight. The available voter pool is up significantly and voter registration is below 2004 levels 2 months before the cutoff date.
I have worked campaigns before and two months isn't no time but to registers couple hundred thousand voters in two months is tough.
In 2012 the voting pool increased but registrations fell and turnout plummeted. The turnout that plummeted only harmed Obama. Turnout dropped 4.35 percent and Obama lost twice that. Romney gained. There is excitement in that state for Trump. Much more than there was for Romney.
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:18 PM Author: Haunting Orange Mediation Indirect Expression Philadelphia is a bit of a problem, for obvious reasons. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065261) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:21 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake It is. I wish some pollster would have the balls to come out give black turnout a thorough analysis.
What was black turnout in PA in 2004? I can't seem to find the number. |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:36 PM Author: Haunting Orange Mediation Indirect Expression Looking, but can't find. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065351) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:43 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake Looks like about 55 percent compared to low 60s in 08 and low mid in 2012 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065414) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:47 PM Author: Haunting Orange Mediation Indirect Expression I bet the minority pop in Philly has grown since '04, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065447) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake Actually my numbers are wrong.
Voter registrations in Philly are down a little but not much. |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:26 PM Author: Zippy floppy brunch It doesn't really mean much. People just wanted to vote for Trump/Cruz in the primary.
Dems outnumber Republicans by over a million in PA. Obviously some of those vote Republican but never switched because their primaries don't matter much.
By comparison, CO, a purple state, has about 50K more registered Republicans than Dems. |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:35 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake As of July 25 the Dems outnumber GOP by 900,000, and just under 1.1m are independent or third party. And the democrats are going to have a turnout problem. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065341) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:36 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake And my point isn't so much the switching but the terrible registration numbers. This is going to be very very fucking close. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065352) |
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Date: July 29th, 2016 10:47 PM Author: Zippy floppy brunch It's possible but Obama was very hated in those rural areas of PA in 2012. It's hard to imagine Hillary doing worse. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31065445) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:23 AM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake fuck you libs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31849916) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:23 AM Author: fragrant well-lubricated orchestra pit legend well done bro! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31849924) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:23 AM Author: Awkward whorehouse selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31849930) |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 9:45 PM Author: Passionate state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31885766) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:23 AM Author: Multi-colored Purple National Hissy Fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31849919) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:24 AM Author: amber stimulating pit faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31849951) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:25 AM Author: Mind-boggling Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31849968) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:26 AM Author: lavender effete voyeur degenerate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31850008) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:27 AM Author: Unhinged Wonderful Boltzmann 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31850011) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:29 AM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake ty all (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31850055) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:29 AM Author: learning disabled crusty senate this board continues to surprise and astound me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31850078) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:30 AM Author: Alcoholic Locus Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31850090) |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31885580) |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 9:21 PM Author: coiffed idiot police squad Threads like this prove that a high IQ bro with a penchant for detail and without an agenda is smarter than so-called media experts 99% of the time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31885630) |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake Thanks brotha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31886263) |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 9:38 PM Author: blathering principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31885722) |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: tripping liquid oxygen cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31885757) |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 9:58 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake Nate Silver literally sucking my cock in a Port Authority bathroom stall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31885857) |
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Date: November 11th, 2016 11:04 PM Author: Scarlet Exhilarant Field Keepsake Machete fuck libs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#31886236) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 9:22 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#38103766) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 9:42 PM Author: Olive low-t sneaky criminal to the extent voter registration numbers are predictive that spells bad news for Trump because it's been the exact opposite the last 2 years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#38103871) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 9:53 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake Have you been following voter reg numbers? Please post figures. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3306450&forum_id=2#38103917) |
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Date: April 17th, 2019 10:07 PM Author: soul-stirring pontificating fanboi corn cake I can’t find the previous 2 years voter regs and swap data for PA. Where did you find yours? |