Is San Francisco real estate in a bubble??
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:23 PM Author: Charismatic lettuce pervert
just learned that there is also a Vancouver in Oregon
humorous antics at the airport
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128867) |
Date: August 7th, 2016 12:55 PM Author: beta obsidian step-uncle's house giraffe
I'm in one of the "good school districts" (non-asian as well) on the peninsula; at any given time there are maybe 5 homes for sale around here, 10 MAX in the entire city. Could sell my home in less than a week @ above asking price and have no concern that will change.
What people don't get is that a.) there is no inventory and b.) many people don't sell their home when they move because they may have a very advantageous tax position (e.g. bought it at a much lower price than it's current market/rental value, so tax basis is essentially the lower price). Both wife and I rented out the homes we had purchased prior to marriage.
The biggest threat to SF real estate is millenials getting older, married, and moving out of the city. It relies on a steady stream of youth willing to pay $1500-$2000/mo. for a bedroom in a shared apartment. If that softens, the market will as well.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126551) |
Date: August 7th, 2016 1:01 PM Author: Greedy stage
Check out the case shiller over a 20 year period, SF prices peaked last summer before the China stock market crash and now it's been a slow decline. Mortgage defaults are climbing, new development is hitting the pipeline and the prices are starting to cool down. The limited supply of SF is going to be diluted with a lot of new building that is coming on line soon in addition to the slowdown in tech (a lot of tech companies help out with down payments or techies use their shares to pledge as collateral when they get a loan from a bank for a house in SF).
Will SF real estate always be expensive? Yes - but as capital flows slow down in Silicon Valley and the Chinese get clamped down by their own people and regulations on US/Canada I think we will see prices continue to fall
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126590) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Greedy stage
I'm sorry man but securities based lending is not an edge case, that shit is going on without a doubt in addition to people with stock based comp selling shares to make payments.
Most of the mortgages in SF/Peninsula are Jumbo's so the banks can play looser as well. You also have some lending institutions doing 0% down and startup's with crazy benefit packages (down payment assistance) to lure people. It may not be your company doing it, but there are many that are and it all contributes to further insanity and unrealistic expectations.
Next time you get the chance to walk around SF or the Peninsula and you are near any newbuilds, tell me if you see any of the commercial real estate leased up.
I've noticed that a lot of the commercial RE in new developments has been vacant for a very long time, in addition to newbuilds themselves lagging behind schedule (i.e it says it says "Spring 2016" but it's summer almost fall and the building hasn't been finished up or occupied yet).
It makes sense as well, because if you are a large property developer in the Bay Area like Avalon Bay, Kilroy or Essex and you are using your stock as currency it is better to leave commercial units vacant and book the accounting loss than to lease them out at below what you think you could have gotten for them because of the way properties (and by extension REIT equity shares) are valued (i.e the income based model).
In SF there is significant vacancy and a huge amount of sublet office space on the market from startups that expanded way too fast and they are now cutting back or realizing they wont grow into any space. Plus another - how much - 8M squarefeet of office space coming online soon?
Did you see that Equity Residential - Sam Zell's REIT, has been selling property in NYC/SF lately and warning that the SF market is cooling off? The sweetner packages that these companies are offering to renters (one month free rent, etc) are also increasing significantly from a year ago.
The cracks are already showing with interest rates at .25% - how is this math going to look when fed funds is at 1.25%?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128582) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:52 PM Author: beta obsidian step-uncle's house giraffe
My unicorn is one of the FEW that is probably under valued and thus one of the few that has private equity funds willing to offer interesting financing options for. This past week I read a proposal for one willing to give me a "loan" to exercise my options + cover the associated tax. In the agreement, the equity is SPECIFICALLY NOT COLLATERAL, as it not only would fail to trigger the clock for LT Cap gains benefits, but in our case, and I suspect most similar co.'s would trigger restrictions in the shareholders agreement.
Yes, B of A and a few others ADVERTISE aggressive jumbos, but reality is a lot different. For one thing, few sellers will pick a 0 down B of A buyer vs. even a 20%'r. Lending standards are far harder than what is advertised; I had 2 years of canceled checks and bank statements rejected as proof of rental income; an issue since we only had it declared on our most recent return and needed 2yrs for it to count. Ended up buying down the interest rate on an ARM and putting about a million down to get the monthly within lending standards. And we're a 500-600k annual household with access to private banking.
I do agree on the commercial space; we're expanding much cheaper than what was budgeted.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129082) |
Date: August 7th, 2016 6:07 PM Author: Medicated Candlestick Maker
DANCE INTO THE FIRE
THAT FATAL KISS IS ALL WE NEED
DANCE INTO THE FIRE
TO FATAL SOUNDS OF BROKEN DREAMS
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129203) |
Date: August 7th, 2016 6:30 PM Author: Drunken half-breed
yes its in a bubble due to tech and asian money
will it collapse like vegas or phoenix in 2009? NO. the correction would be mild (10~15%) and mainly on the condo/rental market
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129322) |
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