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Is San Francisco real estate in a bubble??
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:05 PM Author: Garnet gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126343) |
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Date: August 27th, 2016 9:54 PM Author: pearly filthpig doctorate SFbro
Not if you're a long term buyer. The crazy zoning laws in the City make building new units here impossible. Areas in yellow are under a strict height limit.
This city sucks. I wish I never moved here. |
Date: August 7th, 2016 12:05 PM Author: Gold skinny woman definitely not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126345) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:06 PM Author: Yellow Nursing Home Clown See Vancouver following foreign all-cash chinese buyer tax.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-03/deals-are-collapsing-vancouvers-housing-bubble-has-just-burst |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:21 PM Author: Vermilion place of business Canada is 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126398) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:21 PM Author: Charismatic lettuce pervert how so? is pot legal there? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128853) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:23 PM Author: Charismatic lettuce pervert just learned that there is also a Vancouver in Oregon
humorous antics at the airport |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:07 PM Author: mind-boggling pozpig kitchen Not if the homes and offices are actually improving in quality (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126351) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:07 PM Author: balding preventive strike Of course not! You should buy now! Also check out our deals on new cars! (glob cap) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126352) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:10 PM Author: lake whorehouse stock car No, they have strict laws on the height of buildings so supply is kept very low. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126362) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: diverse wine feces native Criminally underrated (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129049) |
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Date: August 27th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: pearly filthpig doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31281392) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:12 PM Author: Shaky soul-stirring patrolman No, it's totally normal to pay $1.2 million for a 1700 square foot, 3 bedroom ranch home built in 1963 originally designed as working class housing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126372) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:16 PM Author: Titillating Saffron Space Nibblets mfcr
it is in a huuuuuuuuge bubble tied to the greater silicon valley bubble. if the SV bubble pops, so does housing. But its very possible for the SV bubble to live on but for, in the mediumish term, more tech entrepreneurs and moneymen to realize "fuck this, I'm not paying a million plus for a shit ranch with basically no yard that needs to be completely reno'd when I can go buy myself a fucking mansion on land somewhere in the sunbelt or even just a traditionally 180 house in a variety of other nice cities |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:58 PM Author: Cracking brass rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126568) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: dashing round eye messiness lol u cant get a 3bd 1700 sq ft house in the BAY AREA for 1.2 million, are u smoking. that gets u like a 1bd 650 sq ft apt in the mission (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126697) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:00 PM Author: primrose theater stage community account Pacifica, Half Moon Bay, hth. Copped a 2500 sq ft house for under $1 mil. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128759) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:32 PM Author: Claret home Big fan of HMB. Can get a big house on a 1/2 acre with ocean views for 1.1-1.3. Only 30 min from the city for commuting.
Meanwhile a townhouse in Foster City is 1.5 with a 700/mo hoa. |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:34 PM Author: pearl corn cake foster city is a weird fucking place. planned suburban community which is going to be 80% azn in 10-15 years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128946) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:38 PM Author: Claret home Yeah, when I was buying a couple of years ago, I was amazed at how different all of the peninsula cities were.
I opted for something off the beat path where I could get a big chunk of land and not have to deal with the people in the valley all day. They stress me out enough in the day-to-day of startups. |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:44 PM Author: chestnut dog poop abode 1.6, actually (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129045) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:20 PM Author: Vermilion place of business Prob yes due to global warming (SF will be under water ) LJL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31126396) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 12:55 PM Author: beta obsidian step-uncle's house giraffe I'm in one of the "good school districts" (non-asian as well) on the peninsula; at any given time there are maybe 5 homes for sale around here, 10 MAX in the entire city. Could sell my home in less than a week @ above asking price and have no concern that will change.
What people don't get is that a.) there is no inventory and b.) many people don't sell their home when they move because they may have a very advantageous tax position (e.g. bought it at a much lower price than it's current market/rental value, so tax basis is essentially the lower price). Both wife and I rented out the homes we had purchased prior to marriage.
The biggest threat to SF real estate is millenials getting older, married, and moving out of the city. It relies on a steady stream of youth willing to pay $1500-$2000/mo. for a bedroom in a shared apartment. If that softens, the market will as well. |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 1:01 PM Author: Greedy stage Check out the case shiller over a 20 year period, SF prices peaked last summer before the China stock market crash and now it's been a slow decline. Mortgage defaults are climbing, new development is hitting the pipeline and the prices are starting to cool down. The limited supply of SF is going to be diluted with a lot of new building that is coming on line soon in addition to the slowdown in tech (a lot of tech companies help out with down payments or techies use their shares to pledge as collateral when they get a loan from a bank for a house in SF).
Will SF real estate always be expensive? Yes - but as capital flows slow down in Silicon Valley and the Chinese get clamped down by their own people and regulations on US/Canada I think we will see prices continue to fall |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 1:17 PM Author: beta obsidian step-uncle's house giraffe New supply, agreed. There are a lot of buildings coming online, though a lot of that inventory is pre-sold and the buyers are waiting to move in.
LJL at what was said about tech companies? I work for one of the very successful "unicorns". No fucking way are we doing people's down-payments. Also, using equity as collateral? So many reasons why that being possible is an edge case, not the least of which is that if the equity is options that you'll get AMT fucked if they're collateral for anything. |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Greedy stage I'm sorry man but securities based lending is not an edge case, that shit is going on without a doubt in addition to people with stock based comp selling shares to make payments.
Most of the mortgages in SF/Peninsula are Jumbo's so the banks can play looser as well. You also have some lending institutions doing 0% down and startup's with crazy benefit packages (down payment assistance) to lure people. It may not be your company doing it, but there are many that are and it all contributes to further insanity and unrealistic expectations.
Next time you get the chance to walk around SF or the Peninsula and you are near any newbuilds, tell me if you see any of the commercial real estate leased up.
I've noticed that a lot of the commercial RE in new developments has been vacant for a very long time, in addition to newbuilds themselves lagging behind schedule (i.e it says it says "Spring 2016" but it's summer almost fall and the building hasn't been finished up or occupied yet).
It makes sense as well, because if you are a large property developer in the Bay Area like Avalon Bay, Kilroy or Essex and you are using your stock as currency it is better to leave commercial units vacant and book the accounting loss than to lease them out at below what you think you could have gotten for them because of the way properties (and by extension REIT equity shares) are valued (i.e the income based model).
In SF there is significant vacancy and a huge amount of sublet office space on the market from startups that expanded way too fast and they are now cutting back or realizing they wont grow into any space. Plus another - how much - 8M squarefeet of office space coming online soon?
Did you see that Equity Residential - Sam Zell's REIT, has been selling property in NYC/SF lately and warning that the SF market is cooling off? The sweetner packages that these companies are offering to renters (one month free rent, etc) are also increasing significantly from a year ago.
The cracks are already showing with interest rates at .25% - how is this math going to look when fed funds is at 1.25%? |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: topaz sickened house I don't follow your argument. If you're purchasing things with stock, higher stock values let you buy more. Increased rental income (indirectly) raises the stock price. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128742) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Judgmental stimulating dilemma immigrant He's saying a lot of people use shares in private companies as collateral and if those private companies have made up valuations, like most of the unicorns, it's another house of cards. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128752) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:03 PM Author: Floppy insane market The developer raises its share price by saying a building could be rented out for x, but that it just hasn't quite gotten around to doing it yet, rather than renting it out for 70% of x and telling the truth. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128774) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Judgmental stimulating dilemma immigrant Seems right. Only question is hard or soft landing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128746) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:01 PM Author: Floppy insane market All this is interesting, but keep in mind that prices in SF are driven not just by the tech bubble but by the same sort of property owner-favoring restrictive zoning that is found in a variety of seaport cities around the country. Even if the tech industry is only big instead of gargantuan, this reality will continue to inflate prices above what would be found in a normal city, even if some new inventory comes online.
It would be cool to see a regression analysis that quantified how much of the excess property value is due to the tech bubble, the zoning, etc. Not sure if anyone has done that. |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:02 PM Author: Cracking brass rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128769) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:06 PM Author: Floppy insane market Boston is obviously another example of a coastal city with property values inflated by overly restrictive zoning. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128783) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:09 PM Author: Judgmental stimulating dilemma immigrant Only as long as the population keeps increasing. The dotcom bust destroyed SF real estate prices. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128791) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:12 PM Author: Floppy insane market By how much? Did the dot com bust takes prices to a level comparable to some place like Omaha, or were they still relatively high? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128806) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:17 PM Author: pearl corn cake cr
each time a bubble bursts prices get set back for a few years but never to where they were previously |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:37 PM Author: Judgmental stimulating dilemma immigrant Of course not its a coastal city. Seriously though go look at some graphs. Before the 2008 crash the volatility in SF housing prices looked unprecedented. I think it was like a 20-30% swing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128969) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:41 PM Author: Floppy insane market Uh, I think you just made my point for me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129014) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 6:11 PM Author: Judgmental stimulating dilemma immigrant I'm not arguing with you. Prices go up and down and desirable places are always going to be more expensive. I'm not sure what your point is. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129223) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:52 PM Author: beta obsidian step-uncle's house giraffe My unicorn is one of the FEW that is probably under valued and thus one of the few that has private equity funds willing to offer interesting financing options for. This past week I read a proposal for one willing to give me a "loan" to exercise my options + cover the associated tax. In the agreement, the equity is SPECIFICALLY NOT COLLATERAL, as it not only would fail to trigger the clock for LT Cap gains benefits, but in our case, and I suspect most similar co.'s would trigger restrictions in the shareholders agreement.
Yes, B of A and a few others ADVERTISE aggressive jumbos, but reality is a lot different. For one thing, few sellers will pick a 0 down B of A buyer vs. even a 20%'r. Lending standards are far harder than what is advertised; I had 2 years of canceled checks and bank statements rejected as proof of rental income; an issue since we only had it declared on our most recent return and needed 2yrs for it to count. Ended up buying down the interest rate on an ARM and putting about a million down to get the monthly within lending standards. And we're a 500-600k annual household with access to private banking.
I do agree on the commercial space; we're expanding much cheaper than what was budgeted. |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 6:13 PM Author: Judgmental stimulating dilemma immigrant My unicorn is one of the FEW that is probably under valued
Lol mine too |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:20 PM Author: Charismatic lettuce pervert San Francisco is trapped in a taut gay bubble BUTT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31128851) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: chestnut dog poop abode i rike a rear estay imbesmen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129035) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 5:53 PM Author: diverse wine feces native Imbesmen took me a bit. ha! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129093) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 6:37 PM Author: electric bistre menage You have to read it in one go. Cannot dissect. If you dissect or read carefully, you will miss it. Just read it all in one go and it will make sense. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31129357) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 6:07 PM Author: Medicated Candlestick Maker DANCE INTO THE FIRE THAT FATAL KISS IS ALL WE NEED DANCE INTO THE FIRE TO FATAL SOUNDS OF BROKEN DREAMS |
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Date: August 27th, 2016 9:59 PM Author: canary buck-toothed plaza kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31281431) |
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Date: August 7th, 2016 6:30 PM Author: Drunken half-breed yes its in a bubble due to tech and asian money
will it collapse like vegas or phoenix in 2009? NO. the correction would be mild (10~15%) and mainly on the condo/rental market |
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Date: August 27th, 2016 9:56 PM Author: Vermilion place of business isn't there going to be a tsunami or some shit and SF is going to be flooded?
LJL |
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Date: August 27th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: orange stead SF is a mountainous peninsula dumbass, it's not flood-prone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31281485) |
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Date: August 27th, 2016 10:29 PM Author: Flirting big-titted travel guidebook You all say lack of construction due to zoning is raising prices, but do you have any example where increased supply caused prices to drop? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3314451&forum_id=2#31281659) |