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Self-driving cars will NEVER share the roads with regular cars
Poast new message in this thread
Date: February 27th, 2017 3:11 PM Author: Trip Frum Electric Furnace Ljl at utopian tech fags (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32712983) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:13 PM Author: drab cumskin temple Phones will NEVER fit in your pocket and have more processing power than all the computers on earth in 1975. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32712992) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:14 PM Author: Trip Frum Electric Furnace Is this the kind of verbal reasoning that got you into Tulane (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713003) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:16 PM Author: cowardly twinkling chapel Killshot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713014) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:17 PM Author: saffron box office background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713022) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:17 PM Author: drab cumskin temple I went to Cornell, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713026) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:19 PM Author: umber bat-shit-crazy national the tulane of the north (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713038) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:23 PM Author: Charcoal stead reading party That's Penn. It's at best the Tulane of Ithaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713067) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 7:25 AM Author: Talented mahogany incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717399) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:23 PM Author: drab cumskin temple Good enough for government work. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713071) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 8:59 AM Author: Beady-eyed White Mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717727) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:28 PM Author: crawly crackhouse fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713100) |
Date: February 27th, 2017 3:13 PM Author: Aqua bearded den wrong (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32712996) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:17 PM Author: saffron box office background story "3d printers will NEVER share the home/office/school with 2d printers" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713025) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:20 PM Author: erotic stimulating toilet seat no one will ever need a computer in their house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713046) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:22 PM Author: Charcoal stead reading party Not to go full aspie but Technically this is already untrue (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713059) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:24 PM Author: Dead Hot Whorehouse Faggot Firefighter tend to agree with OP, but with reservations. I'm sure, over time, people will see every piece of data indicating that they are safer, more efficient, etc. than driving yourself but they will face tremendous headwinds including unions/lobbying/TLCs/price points without EVEN touching american emotional attachments to cars/driving that data driven analysis will do nothing to allay.
maybe not "never", but WAAAAAAAAAAAY longer than nerds think. |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:27 PM Author: Trip Frum Electric Furnace It will never be safe enough to account for human error/weather etc. I can see separate roads or lanes for automated shipping but people who act like semi trucks will be autonomously driving around on freeways in a few years are insane (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713097) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:30 PM Author: Aqua bearded den You are objectively wrong. Google is already down to one potential contact every 5,000 miles, and in reality a potential contacts is not even a likely accident. Their drivers go for weeks without doing anything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713114) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:31 PM Author: Trip Frum Electric Furnace Flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713120) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:35 PM Author: Aqua bearded den https://www.wired.com/2017/02/california-dmv-autonomous-car-disengagement/
Waymo Miles per disengagement: 5128
I don't think snow and rain will be nearly as hard to solve as people think it will be, but they'll probably start as a georestricted taxi service where it isn't a problem. |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:31 PM Author: Dead Hot Whorehouse Faggot Firefighter this is one of the stronger arguments imho on this idea of short term adoption rates. we ain't seeing large scale adoption of 18 wheelers carrying around 75k lbs fully loaded trailers on I-95 any time soon. even if, in theory, they were "safer". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713128) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 6:16 AM Author: Anal racy step-uncle's house In theory? I think the technology today is prob safer than the meth addled minds of most truck drivers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717288) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:32 PM Author: erotic stimulating toilet seat not gonna happen in a few years, but in 5 years it will probably be ready and 10 years it'll be accepted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713130) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:34 PM Author: dull idea he suggested And in 30 years it will be mandatory. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713145) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:37 PM Author: Dead Hot Whorehouse Faggot Firefighter wasn't there a poast recently that said "why do gen xers always tell you to listen to Rush?"---this is why, right here. also, cf, "red barchetta". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713159) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:32 PM Author: drab cumskin temple *Dude who has never been in a car with a female Asian driver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713131) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:39 PM Author: black cracking center goal in life This is dumb. Even if you assume this is an AI-hard problem because of low probability edge cases, there will come a point where AGIs could be deployed in self-driving cars. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713175) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:26 PM Author: Red menage It is a super hard AI problem. John Leonard from MIT agrees: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5CZmlaMNCs (long but seriously worth watching if this topic interests you). Watch around 22:00 to see some tough shit these algos will have to handle.
Until I have a robot that I can send down to the store to buy me things while dealing with any random human cashier, we'll never have a fully autonomous self-driving car that handles every situation safely, let alone optimally. Right now AI/ML is only good at very specific tasks, in every other way it's literally dumber than a 5-year-old poor kid buying mom a pack of smokes at the corner store. |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:32 PM Author: Red menage Exactly. The big money is in eliminating long-haul truck driving.
Have special lanes split off every major highway for autonomous drivers and hire drivers to do the "last mile" bringing the truck from the highway exit to shipping depot/store/warehouse.
There is NFW people are going to have a computer-controlled 75000lb truck driving on the highway with them. Any politician who allows this will have his opponent running page after page of grisly accident photos after the inevitable crash. |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 10:39 AM Author: Supple lodge giraffe separate roads/lanes for automated is where it'll start. the human-operated lanes will fall into disrepair (because infrastructure investment = COMMUNISM). 50 years later: no one knows how to drive themselves any more (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32718361) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:25 PM Author: saffron box office background story "Segway scooters will NEVER share the sidewalks with striders" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713081) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:29 PM Author: dull idea he suggested They already do. Jfc trumpmos are a dumb group of people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713108) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:32 PM Author: Fuchsia shrine let me just say that i would rather die in a fiery carcrash caused by my own incompetence than die in a fiery carcrash caused by my statistically safer selfdriving car. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713136) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:35 PM Author: Trip Frum Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713148) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:40 PM Author: galvanic overrated skinny woman dysfunction Make it happen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713185) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:40 PM Author: erotic stimulating toilet seat twist: you are FAR more likely to die in a fiery car crahsed caused by ANOTHER person's incompetence. so the self driving car is actually much safer (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713186) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Fuchsia shrine what i'm saying is that the real psychological obstacle to getting average people on board with self driving cars is that people really love the illusion of control. statistics just don't tug at the gut the same way (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713225) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: erotic stimulating toilet seat i am far more afraid of other drivers than i am of computer error (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713229) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:52 PM Author: Fuchsia shrine you probably have an IQ above 115. most people don't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713283) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:29 PM Author: Provocative Bipolar Area Pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716361) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:51 PM Author: Trip Frum Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713271) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:40 PM Author: Crimson vibrant boistinker garrison Future wives will never be able to take'em THAT big. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713188) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:51 PM Author: Narrow-minded lake sanctuary They will and you'll like it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713278) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:08 PM Author: hideous fat ankles elastic band the fuck? I can buy a Tesla tomorrow that will do this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716189) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:17 PM Author: Trip Frum Electric Furnace (Dumb) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716249) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:17 PM Author: Red menage false. Tesla hyped up technology that every Benz and BMW has had for years. it's just a more advanced cruise control and lane keeping system.
Tesla will never drive on unmarked roads or in city traffic with pedestrians.
being able to handle all the edge cases requires a generalized human-like intelligence that is a long way away. the car would need to understand police gestures and facial expressions from other drivers, read and interpret signs, etc. etc. they'll always need a human operator to handle those cases. even planes/trains need that, and air/rail traffic is much more regulated and controlled.
in your lifetime you won't be able to get drunk and hop into a fully autonomous self-driving car that drives you around NYC streets shared with non-self-driving cars and pedestrians. I'd bet you a serious amount of money. |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:18 PM Author: Trip Frum Electric Furnace Exactly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716263) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 12:58 AM Author: clear razzle-dazzle parlour Retard schtick? This is 5 years away at most. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716800) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 9:24 AM Author: Red menage Perfecting the last 1% is 99.9999% of the work.
How much would you bet? |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 12:45 AM Author: Zippy black woman multi-billionaire Yes, in that eventually the "regular cars" won't be allowed on the main lanes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716748) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 1:01 AM Author: Curious house double fault Self driving cars have to communicate with each other so the biggest problem is going to be hacking. Imagine the prize if terrorists could get 20 million cars to crash into each other. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716808) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 9:02 AM Author: flesh floppy theater masturbator SUNDAY! SUNDAY! SUNDAY! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717744) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 1:21 AM Author: Concupiscible Church Private Investor Planes can take off and fly and land with zero human input.
Trains should be able to do that but LOL at anything in rail in the Us being advanced. |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 6:16 AM Author: Anal racy step-uncle's house I thought rail does do this basically now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717289) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 6:40 AM Author: 180 stage i think it's far more likely that things will start off with only the highways being the place where the self-driving cars operate, and then it switches back to a regular car in more dense areas where people live (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717301) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 9:33 AM Author: bateful submissive marketing idea school have they ever said if you're going to allowed to drive a self driving car while drunk? if you can't then it's just a way for GC to make you do work during your commute and eliminate even more jobs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717904) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Cyan tank Can you imagine the sort of low T "man" who pines after a self driving car? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32718139) |