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Self-driving cars will NEVER share the roads with regular cars
Poast new message in this thread
Date: February 27th, 2017 3:11 PM Author: canary bateful famous landscape painting Ljl at utopian tech fags (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32712983) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:13 PM Author: Bearded gas station alpha Phones will NEVER fit in your pocket and have more processing power than all the computers on earth in 1975. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32712992) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:14 PM Author: canary bateful famous landscape painting Is this the kind of verbal reasoning that got you into Tulane (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713003) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:16 PM Author: Provocative base really tough guy Killshot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713014) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:17 PM Author: lemon ticket booth fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713022) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:17 PM Author: Bearded gas station alpha I went to Cornell, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713026) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:19 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle sable cruise ship the tulane of the north (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713038) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:23 PM Author: confused charcoal station genital piercing That's Penn. It's at best the Tulane of Ithaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713067) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 7:25 AM Author: Coiffed pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717399) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:23 PM Author: Bearded gas station alpha Good enough for government work. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713071) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 8:59 AM Author: fragrant locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717727) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:28 PM Author: Histrionic Round Eye Senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713100) |
Date: February 27th, 2017 3:13 PM Author: Alcoholic adulterous site mad-dog skullcap wrong (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32712996) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:17 PM Author: lemon ticket booth fat ankles "3d printers will NEVER share the home/office/school with 2d printers" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713025) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:20 PM Author: floppy public bath no one will ever need a computer in their house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713046) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:22 PM Author: confused charcoal station genital piercing Not to go full aspie but Technically this is already untrue (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713059) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:24 PM Author: Maniacal translucent national goyim tend to agree with OP, but with reservations. I'm sure, over time, people will see every piece of data indicating that they are safer, more efficient, etc. than driving yourself but they will face tremendous headwinds including unions/lobbying/TLCs/price points without EVEN touching american emotional attachments to cars/driving that data driven analysis will do nothing to allay.
maybe not "never", but WAAAAAAAAAAAY longer than nerds think. |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:27 PM Author: canary bateful famous landscape painting It will never be safe enough to account for human error/weather etc. I can see separate roads or lanes for automated shipping but people who act like semi trucks will be autonomously driving around on freeways in a few years are insane (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713097) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:30 PM Author: Alcoholic adulterous site mad-dog skullcap You are objectively wrong. Google is already down to one potential contact every 5,000 miles, and in reality a potential contacts is not even a likely accident. Their drivers go for weeks without doing anything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713114) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:31 PM Author: canary bateful famous landscape painting Flame (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713120) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:35 PM Author: Alcoholic adulterous site mad-dog skullcap https://www.wired.com/2017/02/california-dmv-autonomous-car-disengagement/
Waymo Miles per disengagement: 5128
I don't think snow and rain will be nearly as hard to solve as people think it will be, but they'll probably start as a georestricted taxi service where it isn't a problem. |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:31 PM Author: Maniacal translucent national goyim this is one of the stronger arguments imho on this idea of short term adoption rates. we ain't seeing large scale adoption of 18 wheelers carrying around 75k lbs fully loaded trailers on I-95 any time soon. even if, in theory, they were "safer". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713128) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 6:16 AM Author: beady-eyed rigpig In theory? I think the technology today is prob safer than the meth addled minds of most truck drivers. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717288) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:32 PM Author: floppy public bath not gonna happen in a few years, but in 5 years it will probably be ready and 10 years it'll be accepted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713130) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:34 PM Author: twinkling overrated friendly grandma area And in 30 years it will be mandatory. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713145) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:37 PM Author: Maniacal translucent national goyim wasn't there a poast recently that said "why do gen xers always tell you to listen to Rush?"---this is why, right here. also, cf, "red barchetta". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713159) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:32 PM Author: Bearded gas station alpha *Dude who has never been in a car with a female Asian driver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713131) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:39 PM Author: wonderful rose orchestra pit sweet tailpipe This is dumb. Even if you assume this is an AI-hard problem because of low probability edge cases, there will come a point where AGIs could be deployed in self-driving cars. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713175) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:26 PM Author: sapphire boyish meetinghouse It is a super hard AI problem. John Leonard from MIT agrees: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5CZmlaMNCs (long but seriously worth watching if this topic interests you). Watch around 22:00 to see some tough shit these algos will have to handle.
Until I have a robot that I can send down to the store to buy me things while dealing with any random human cashier, we'll never have a fully autonomous self-driving car that handles every situation safely, let alone optimally. Right now AI/ML is only good at very specific tasks, in every other way it's literally dumber than a 5-year-old poor kid buying mom a pack of smokes at the corner store. |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:32 PM Author: sapphire boyish meetinghouse Exactly. The big money is in eliminating long-haul truck driving.
Have special lanes split off every major highway for autonomous drivers and hire drivers to do the "last mile" bringing the truck from the highway exit to shipping depot/store/warehouse.
There is NFW people are going to have a computer-controlled 75000lb truck driving on the highway with them. Any politician who allows this will have his opponent running page after page of grisly accident photos after the inevitable crash. |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 10:39 AM Author: duck-like abode bbw separate roads/lanes for automated is where it'll start. the human-operated lanes will fall into disrepair (because infrastructure investment = COMMUNISM). 50 years later: no one knows how to drive themselves any more (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32718361) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:25 PM Author: lemon ticket booth fat ankles "Segway scooters will NEVER share the sidewalks with striders" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713081) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:29 PM Author: twinkling overrated friendly grandma area They already do. Jfc trumpmos are a dumb group of people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713108) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:32 PM Author: Up-to-no-good haunting organic girlfriend let me just say that i would rather die in a fiery carcrash caused by my own incompetence than die in a fiery carcrash caused by my statistically safer selfdriving car. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713136) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:35 PM Author: canary bateful famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713148) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:40 PM Author: pungent ladyboy center Make it happen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713185) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:40 PM Author: floppy public bath twist: you are FAR more likely to die in a fiery car crahsed caused by ANOTHER person's incompetence. so the self driving car is actually much safer (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713186) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Up-to-no-good haunting organic girlfriend what i'm saying is that the real psychological obstacle to getting average people on board with self driving cars is that people really love the illusion of control. statistics just don't tug at the gut the same way (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713225) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: floppy public bath i am far more afraid of other drivers than i am of computer error (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713229) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:52 PM Author: Up-to-no-good haunting organic girlfriend you probably have an IQ above 115. most people don't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713283) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:29 PM Author: Vivacious sticky crackhouse corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716361) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:51 PM Author: canary bateful famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713271) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:40 PM Author: lilac lodge place of business Future wives will never be able to take'em THAT big. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713188) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 3:51 PM Author: Dun Appetizing Locale Incel They will and you'll like it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32713278) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:08 PM Author: Misunderstood Bistre Partner Marketing Idea the fuck? I can buy a Tesla tomorrow that will do this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716189) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:17 PM Author: canary bateful famous landscape painting (Dumb) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716249) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:17 PM Author: sapphire boyish meetinghouse false. Tesla hyped up technology that every Benz and BMW has had for years. it's just a more advanced cruise control and lane keeping system.
Tesla will never drive on unmarked roads or in city traffic with pedestrians.
being able to handle all the edge cases requires a generalized human-like intelligence that is a long way away. the car would need to understand police gestures and facial expressions from other drivers, read and interpret signs, etc. etc. they'll always need a human operator to handle those cases. even planes/trains need that, and air/rail traffic is much more regulated and controlled.
in your lifetime you won't be able to get drunk and hop into a fully autonomous self-driving car that drives you around NYC streets shared with non-self-driving cars and pedestrians. I'd bet you a serious amount of money. |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 11:18 PM Author: canary bateful famous landscape painting Exactly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716263) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 12:58 AM Author: Ivory nubile home trust fund Retard schtick? This is 5 years away at most. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716800) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 9:24 AM Author: sapphire boyish meetinghouse Perfecting the last 1% is 99.9999% of the work.
How much would you bet? |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 12:45 AM Author: razzmatazz dilemma Yes, in that eventually the "regular cars" won't be allowed on the main lanes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716748) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 1:01 AM Author: charismatic bat shit crazy giraffe boistinker Self driving cars have to communicate with each other so the biggest problem is going to be hacking. Imagine the prize if terrorists could get 20 million cars to crash into each other. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32716808) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 9:02 AM Author: Chartreuse Arousing Factory Reset Button Gunner SUNDAY! SUNDAY! SUNDAY! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717744) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 1:21 AM Author: Insanely creepy geriatric set ratface Planes can take off and fly and land with zero human input.
Trains should be able to do that but LOL at anything in rail in the Us being advanced. |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 6:16 AM Author: beady-eyed rigpig I thought rail does do this basically now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717289) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 6:40 AM Author: Ruddy Parlor Regret i think it's far more likely that things will start off with only the highways being the place where the self-driving cars operate, and then it switches back to a regular car in more dense areas where people live (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717301) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 9:33 AM Author: black hissy fit have they ever said if you're going to allowed to drive a self driving car while drunk? if you can't then it's just a way for GC to make you do work during your commute and eliminate even more jobs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32717904) |
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Date: February 28th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Iridescent deranged mexican Can you imagine the sort of low T "man" who pines after a self driving car? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3538114&forum_id=2#32718139) |