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If ur not buying TWX ur insane

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the ...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/15/17
FRIENDLY REMINDER
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/16/17
this is still a good buy?
Carmine Duck-like Dog Poop
  11/16/17
Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock po...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/16/17
It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREA...
Mustard vigorous casino
  11/16/17
do you ENDORSE this buy?
Carmine Duck-like Dog Poop
  11/16/17
I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this ...
Mustard vigorous casino
  11/16/17
Thank
Unhinged well-lubricated theater scourge upon the earth
  11/16/17
u fuckin fagets are missin out
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/16/17
I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds
Carmine Duck-like Dog Poop
  11/16/17
DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down ...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/16/17
Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with t...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/17/17
Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by th...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/21/17
Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/21/17
How can I buy stocks on coinbase
Blue mediation set
  11/21/17
didn't even go down with yesterday's news
navy tantric telephone plaza
  11/21/17
It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/21/17
is it too late to buy?
navy tantric telephone plaza
  11/21/17
If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/21/17
In for $1000.
cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop
  11/21/17
same
Hairraiser indian lodge
  11/24/17
in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignorin...
jade base windowlicker
  11/21/17
same
navy tantric telephone plaza
  11/21/17
Same reasoning, same amount.
sable temple elastic band
  11/21/17
Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfold...
sable temple elastic band
  11/21/17
What does exeunt say
Blue mediation set
  11/21/17
Buy index funds
drab hospital
  11/24/17
Note there are two risks here: -The main risk is the judg...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/21/17
my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.
Ungodly appetizing parlour
  11/21/17
btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/21/17
Antitrust is voodoo magic.
cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop
  11/21/17
PREACH XO should be handicapping the odds on this like ma...
Mustard vigorous casino
  11/21/17
CNBC just said they changed the judge
jade base windowlicker
  11/21/17
They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/21/17
oh okay nice
jade base windowlicker
  11/21/17
copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.
Passionate step-uncle's house party of the first part
  11/21/17
did you sellcuck?
jade base windowlicker
  11/21/17
no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last...
Passionate step-uncle's house party of the first part
  11/21/17
oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse
jade base windowlicker
  11/21/17
...
Passionate step-uncle's house party of the first part
  11/24/17
welp
jade base windowlicker
  11/27/17
What's the problem brother
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/29/17
did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill t...
Passionate step-uncle's house party of the first part
  11/29/17
No it's making new highs!
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  11/29/17
Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spr...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  12/04/17
I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!
jade base windowlicker
  12/04/17
Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical tr...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  12/04/17
If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get hav...
Mustard vigorous casino
  12/04/17
Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  02/01/18
thank you for your good service
Hairraiser indian lodge
  02/02/18
noTWXers crying, losing hoap
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  02/02/18
long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely me...
Hairraiser indian lodge
  02/02/18
This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  02/02/18
dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice: ...
Hairraiser indian lodge
  02/20/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  02/20/18
...
Hairraiser indian lodge
  02/20/18
Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking ...
soul-stirring hissy fit
  02/20/18
I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - wou...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  02/20/18
What happens now
soul-stirring hissy fit
  02/20/18
idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but i...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  02/21/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  02/21/18
I HELD I LOVE YOU
soul-stirring hissy fit
  06/12/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  02/20/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  02/21/18
is it up big or down
jade base windowlicker
  02/21/18
Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  02/21/18
unnnnghhhhhhhh
jade base windowlicker
  02/21/18
The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial ...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  03/15/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  03/19/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  03/19/18
really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basic...
mind-boggling flesh church wagecucks
  03/19/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  03/19/18
Arbs like this are market isolated
Mustard vigorous casino
  03/19/18
lol jfc 10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's sti...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  03/19/18
great call actually and it's going to the moon
jade base windowlicker
  03/19/18
when moon
Hairraiser indian lodge
  03/20/18
Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible the...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  03/20/18
ty
Hairraiser indian lodge
  03/24/18
Civ #? Ty for the info.
crimson university
  03/24/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  03/23/18
DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-ti...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  03/23/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  03/23/18
The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, ...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  04/11/18
Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T stayin...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  04/11/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  04/17/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  04/26/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  04/26/18
Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk ou...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  04/26/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  04/26/18
Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more thoug...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  04/26/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  04/26/18
The trial should be done by early next week, and from there ...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  04/26/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  04/26/18
Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal br...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  04/26/18
When are you selling your TWX stock bro?
Hairraiser indian lodge
  06/13/18
I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if ...
Mustard vigorous casino
  04/26/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  04/26/18
ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case h...
Mustard vigorous casino
  04/26/18
Fuck twx is at 91 today
soul-stirring hissy fit
  05/09/18
:(
cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop
  05/09/18
Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?
clear mentally impaired chapel
  05/09/18
Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt. https://www.bizjournals...
cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop
  06/04/18
Ruling this week!
Hairraiser indian lodge
  06/11/18
We maed it.
cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop
  06/12/18
YES WE CAN
Hairraiser indian lodge
  06/12/18
14% return from time op created this thread based on after h...
Mewling address
  06/12/18
14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dolla...
Indigo twisted wrinkle
  06/12/18
That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest becau...
provocative sandwich hall
  06/12/18
lmao Makan u faggot
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  06/12/18
how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next coupl...
soul-stirring hissy fit
  06/12/18
Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidl...
odious spot
  06/12/18
http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-s...
provocative sandwich hall
  06/13/18
when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days
Hairraiser indian lodge
  06/13/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  06/13/18
Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  06/13/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  06/13/18
I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't kno...
Hairraiser indian lodge
  06/13/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  06/13/18
cr. Will sell now
Hairraiser indian lodge
  06/13/18
I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal close...
soul-stirring hissy fit
  06/13/18
The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.9...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  06/13/18
...
godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs
  06/13/18
T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally un...
Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant
  06/13/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: November 15th, 2017 3:04 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the tough stance the DOJ is taking right now. $15 upside from here. Will happen within a matter of months. CONVICTION BUY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34693977)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

FRIENDLY REMINDER

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699879)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Carmine Duck-like Dog Poop

this is still a good buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699884)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock portion changes depending on where T falls within a certain collar, but given the current price of T it's well outside of that collar and fixed at 1.437). CONVICTION BUY.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699899)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Mustard vigorous casino

It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREAT price

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699882)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:35 AM
Author: Carmine Duck-like Dog Poop

do you ENDORSE this buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: Mustard vigorous casino

I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this is a good risk. If you want the upside benefit you can buy straight T stock - almost a 6% yield.

I personally think that AT&T is doing the right thing to win in the long term right now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699903)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:38 AM
Author: Unhinged well-lubricated theater scourge upon the earth

Thank

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699914)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

u fuckin fagets are missin out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700013)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: Carmine Duck-like Dog Poop

I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:55 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down on that headline. But the DOJ will almost certainly lose if they make it to court. Most likely scenario is they settle with AT&T prior to the lawsuit ever seeing court.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700043)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 17th, 2017 1:07 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with the DOJ so we can slam this bad boy shut!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34710049)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 10:59 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by the DOJ. Any lawyers poast on this board?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739080)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:01 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739091)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:02 AM
Author: Blue mediation set

How can I buy stocks on coinbase

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739095)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: navy tantric telephone plaza

didn't even go down with yesterday's news

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739105)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:06 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without seeing the complaint people were afraid they might have a strong case. Complaint looked on the weaker side when it was released. Still a binary event here with some deal risk, but most observers think the DOJ doesn't have much of a case here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739119)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: navy tantric telephone plaza

is it too late to buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739127)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:11 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from here. If the deal get blocked you're likely looking at $8-10 downside. But today's news definitely appears bullish for approval.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739154)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop

In for $1000.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739107)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 6:54 AM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34760892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: jade base windowlicker

in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignoring xo tips

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739126)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:12 AM
Author: navy tantric telephone plaza

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739158)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:22 AM
Author: sable temple elastic band

Same reasoning, same amount.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739240)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:18 AM
Author: sable temple elastic band

Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfolds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739206)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:21 AM
Author: Blue mediation set

What does exeunt say

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739227)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:52 AM
Author: drab hospital

Buy index funds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34761064)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:26 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Note there are two risks here:

-The main risk is the judge sides with the DOJ and the merger gets blocked. This seems unlikely based on precedent, the strength of the complaint, and the assigned judge, but it could happen. The DOJ could produce smoking gun internal docs showing AT&T is looking to reduce competition with this merger or some such thing, and we could go back to pre-Bork antitrust precedent. If the deal breaks TWX probably trades in the low $80s.

-This is a cash-and-stock merger, so if AT&T goes down, the stock portion of the consideration will also go down. Right now the deal terms are 1.437 shares of T plus $53.75 cash, but the stock ratio will change if AT&T rallies significantly. If you want to hedge out the T risk, you could short T shares against the TWX buy. But T has gotten pummeled lately, so it's hard to see it getting smoked much more from here.

Bottom line, if you think this merger is going through, this spread is extremely juicy. But like anything else, it's not risk-free.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739265)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:27 AM
Author: Ungodly appetizing parlour

my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739276)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:56 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law dorks who care to take a look at this should be able to gain some insight here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739521)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 12:00 PM
Author: cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop

Antitrust is voodoo magic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739539)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: Mustard vigorous casino

PREACH

XO should be handicapping the odds on this like masterd00ds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34744304)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:05 PM
Author: jade base windowlicker

CNBC just said they changed the judge

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739990)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:20 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself because his wife works for a law firm who represented T) to a GWB appointee. We were on top of this at the time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740122)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: jade base windowlicker

oh okay nice

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740131)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:09 PM
Author: Passionate step-uncle's house party of the first part

copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:10 PM
Author: jade base windowlicker

did you sellcuck?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740028)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: Passionate step-uncle's house party of the first part

no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last xo pick I ran with was Intrepid Potash.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740137)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:22 PM
Author: jade base windowlicker

oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740146)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: Passionate step-uncle's house party of the first part



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34764731)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 27th, 2017 1:37 PM
Author: jade base windowlicker

welp

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34781898)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

What's the problem brother

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799548)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: Passionate step-uncle's house party of the first part

did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill the entire market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799553)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:56 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

No it's making new highs!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799627)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:00 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spread is still super wide because T has been ripping. Will probably pull back a little bit from here (but lots of potential upside left if T wins/settles the lawsuit).



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835068)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:02 AM
Author: jade base windowlicker

I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835076)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:03 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical trading call."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835094)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:06 AM
Author: Mustard vigorous casino

If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get have a very very solid yield

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835110)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2018 9:31 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35294682)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

thank you for your good service

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304774)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 11:40 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

noTWXers crying, losing hoap

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304591)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely merger approval?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304769)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 3:35 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll get cash and T shares. I have no real opinion on T shares, so I'll be out upon deal closure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35307111)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 5:47 AM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/hedge-funds-pile-into-time-warner-in-bet-on-merger-prevailing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443345)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 6:09 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443387)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:48 AM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444218)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: soul-stirring hissy fit

Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking with me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443651)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 9:02 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - would be very hard to justify blocking the deal given the strength in streaming services.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443663)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: soul-stirring hissy fit

What happens now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35446560)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but it's hard to see his path to success - AT&T just needs to pull up a chart of NFLX as their defense.

Some sell-side shops are saying TWX would trade above deal price if the deal broke (I don't agree), but improving fundamentals for the space can't hurt. Most likely outcome is still judge rules in favor of AT&T and the deal goes through.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453348)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:24 PM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453361)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: soul-stirring hissy fit

I HELD I LOVE YOU

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234482)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:58 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444299)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:06 PM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453210)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: jade base windowlicker

is it up big or down

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453351)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453353)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: jade base windowlicker

unnnnghhhhhhhh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453357)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:05 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial is getting delayed two days because people think a settlement is coming. It probably won't happen immediately but that doesn't change the fact that the DOJ has a pure and utter shit-tier case.

LJL at not owning this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35611951)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 9:49 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35636677)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637104)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: mind-boggling flesh church wagecucks

really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basically no alpha.

My longs are up 20-40% since then, mostly industrial names.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637110)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:03 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637119)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:04 AM
Author: Mustard vigorous casino

Arbs like this are market isolated

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637123)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:05 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

lol jfc

10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's still significant upside from here. You're also not wearing the downside risk of buying industrial or tech names or whatever the hell you have in your portfolio.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637129)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:07 AM
Author: jade base windowlicker

great call actually and it's going to the moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637134)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:35 AM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

when moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644755)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:52 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible they settle before then (good) or they win at trial (good) or they lose at trial (bad). First two outcomes are far more likely though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644859)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:31 PM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677308)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:35 PM
Author: crimson university

Civ #?

Ty for the info.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677331)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:23 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668718)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:33 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-tier gaped. Thesis is looking better than ever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668762)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:35 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668770)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:22 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, is set to take the stand today. The thrust of his argument is based on the Nash equilibrium model, which is more theoretical than practical and can be easily tweaked depending on the real world assumptions one uses. Most market participants feel the DOJ has done a poor job convincing Judge Leon this merger will substantially reduce competition thus far.

We will see what unfolds!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815077)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:30 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T staying in the gutter (which was a risk outlined in the OP). The theoretical deal spread is now tighter than it's been in months.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815142)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 5:38 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35857361)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 7:33 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923066)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:46 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923224)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:48 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk outlined upthread - if you are short T you can hedge against this)

On the flip side:

“AT&T IS KILLING THEM”: THE D.O.J. SPURNED A POSSIBLE PEACE OFFERING OVER THE $86 BILLION AT&T-TIME WARNER MERGER—AND NOW THE TRIAL IS ENTERING THE ENDGAME

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/att-time-warner-merger-doj-case



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923235)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:50 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923241)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:52 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923255)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923277)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:12 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

The trial should be done by early next week, and from there the judge may take 4-6 weeks to write his opinion based on his previous comments. I expect we'll have a pretty good sense of how he'll rule before the opinion is published, but you're looking at like a June 1st-15th ruling.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923339)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923349)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:42 AM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal broke, TWX probably settles higher than the deal price, but it will take time and you'd have arb selling pressure in the short term. If you're looking for a quick profit, you just want the judge to rule in AT&T's favor and the deal to get done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923499)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:46 PM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

When are you selling your TWX stock bro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238426)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:29 AM
Author: Mustard vigorous casino

I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if theyre gonna win this case to buy TWX?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924107)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924117)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:34 AM
Author: Mustard vigorous casino

ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case here.

If you buy the AT&T stock right and TWX cashflow helps the company like the CEO of AT&T says it will - I think AT&T is an extremely solid long term hold for many years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924134)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 11:58 AM
Author: soul-stirring hissy fit

Fuck twx is at 91 today

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014864)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:16 PM
Author: cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop

:(

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014997)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:02 PM
Author: clear mentally impaired chapel

Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014897)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 4th, 2018 3:30 PM
Author: cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop

Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2018/05/29/u-s-government-more-likely-to-win-at-t-time-warner.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36182275)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 11th, 2018 2:57 AM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

Ruling this week!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36221862)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:51 PM
Author: cyan fear-inspiring gaming laptop

We maed it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232560)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:52 PM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

YES WE CAN

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232566)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: Mewling address

14% return from time op created this thread based on after hours price of $101.50

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:48 PM
Author: Indigo twisted wrinkle

14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dollars for paltry sum

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234550)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: provocative sandwich hall

That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest because they're risk adverse lawcucks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232584)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:56 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

lmao Makan u faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232600)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:45 PM
Author: soul-stirring hissy fit

how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next couple days? i will probably sell then.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234518)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 10:38 PM
Author: odious spot

Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidly below 1yr and 5yr highs, and that dividend is juicy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234906)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: provocative sandwich hall

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-services-domestic/t-atandt/

the dividend is the only reason to own T. Just park your money there and cop dat der dividend.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36236573)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:44 PM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238410)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:47 PM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238434)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:48 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling pressure from arbs until 6/20, after which it will probably rally.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238439)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:49 PM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238453)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:12 PM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't know if I should expect another 5 to 10% bump or not within the next week or so

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239495)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:17 PM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239545)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: Hairraiser indian lodge

cr. Will sell now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239556)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: soul-stirring hissy fit

I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal closes below 100, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239519)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.90. really depends where T goes from here. Arbs were clearly underhedged going into this, but T should bounce hard either soon before the deal closes or right after.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239561)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:21 PM
Author: godawful dull sneaky criminal hairy legs



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: Insecure Vermilion Legal Warrant

T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally unforeseen given arb flows.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239601)