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If ur not buying TWX ur insane

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the ...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/15/17
FRIENDLY REMINDER
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/16/17
this is still a good buy?
bright contagious clown
  11/16/17
Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock po...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/16/17
It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREA...
Awkward weed whacker nursing home
  11/16/17
do you ENDORSE this buy?
bright contagious clown
  11/16/17
I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this ...
Awkward weed whacker nursing home
  11/16/17
Thank
Razzle-dazzle well-lubricated box office halford
  11/16/17
u fuckin fagets are missin out
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/16/17
I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds
bright contagious clown
  11/16/17
DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down ...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/16/17
Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with t...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/17/17
Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by th...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/21/17
Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/21/17
How can I buy stocks on coinbase
bonkers salmon potus
  11/21/17
didn't even go down with yesterday's news
lake arrogant sound barrier
  11/21/17
It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/21/17
is it too late to buy?
lake arrogant sound barrier
  11/21/17
If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/21/17
In for $1000.
Aphrodisiac address
  11/21/17
same
Sapphire thriller point
  11/24/17
in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignorin...
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  11/21/17
same
lake arrogant sound barrier
  11/21/17
Same reasoning, same amount.
copper bateful shitlib indirect expression
  11/21/17
Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfold...
copper bateful shitlib indirect expression
  11/21/17
What does exeunt say
bonkers salmon potus
  11/21/17
Buy index funds
khaki dashing principal's office famous landscape painting
  11/24/17
Note there are two risks here: -The main risk is the judg...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/21/17
my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.
laughsome orchid cruise ship dysfunction
  11/21/17
btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/21/17
Antitrust is voodoo magic.
Aphrodisiac address
  11/21/17
PREACH XO should be handicapping the odds on this like ma...
Awkward weed whacker nursing home
  11/21/17
CNBC just said they changed the judge
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  11/21/17
They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/21/17
oh okay nice
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  11/21/17
copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.
abusive stage mood
  11/21/17
did you sellcuck?
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  11/21/17
no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last...
abusive stage mood
  11/21/17
oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  11/21/17
...
abusive stage mood
  11/24/17
welp
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  11/27/17
What's the problem brother
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/29/17
did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill t...
abusive stage mood
  11/29/17
No it's making new highs!
floppy chapel pocket flask
  11/29/17
Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spr...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  12/04/17
I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  12/04/17
Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical tr...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  12/04/17
If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get hav...
Awkward weed whacker nursing home
  12/04/17
Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?
floppy chapel pocket flask
  02/01/18
thank you for your good service
Sapphire thriller point
  02/02/18
noTWXers crying, losing hoap
floppy chapel pocket flask
  02/02/18
long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely me...
Sapphire thriller point
  02/02/18
This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  02/02/18
dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice: ...
Sapphire thriller point
  02/20/18
...
Sooty karate
  02/20/18
...
Sapphire thriller point
  02/20/18
Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking ...
Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse
  02/20/18
I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - wou...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  02/20/18
What happens now
Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse
  02/20/18
idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but i...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  02/21/18
...
Sooty karate
  02/21/18
I HELD I LOVE YOU
Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse
  06/12/18
...
Sooty karate
  02/20/18
...
Sooty karate
  02/21/18
is it up big or down
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  02/21/18
Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.
floppy chapel pocket flask
  02/21/18
unnnnghhhhhhhh
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  02/21/18
The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial ...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  03/15/18
...
Sooty karate
  03/19/18
...
Sooty karate
  03/19/18
really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basic...
marvelous theatre lettuce
  03/19/18
...
Sooty karate
  03/19/18
Arbs like this are market isolated
Awkward weed whacker nursing home
  03/19/18
lol jfc 10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's sti...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  03/19/18
great call actually and it's going to the moon
Citrine Multi-colored Casino
  03/19/18
when moon
Sapphire thriller point
  03/20/18
Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible the...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  03/20/18
ty
Sapphire thriller point
  03/24/18
Civ #? Ty for the info.
diverse crystalline resort background story
  03/24/18
...
Sooty karate
  03/23/18
DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-ti...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  03/23/18
...
Sooty karate
  03/23/18
The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, ...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  04/11/18
Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T stayin...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  04/11/18
...
Sooty karate
  04/17/18
...
Sooty karate
  04/26/18
...
Sooty karate
  04/26/18
Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk ou...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  04/26/18
...
Sooty karate
  04/26/18
Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more thoug...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  04/26/18
...
Sooty karate
  04/26/18
The trial should be done by early next week, and from there ...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  04/26/18
...
Sooty karate
  04/26/18
Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal br...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  04/26/18
When are you selling your TWX stock bro?
Sapphire thriller point
  06/13/18
I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if ...
Awkward weed whacker nursing home
  04/26/18
...
Sooty karate
  04/26/18
ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case h...
Awkward weed whacker nursing home
  04/26/18
Fuck twx is at 91 today
Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse
  05/09/18
:(
Aphrodisiac address
  05/09/18
Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?
milky water buffalo new version
  05/09/18
Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt. https://www.bizjournals...
Aphrodisiac address
  06/04/18
Ruling this week!
Sapphire thriller point
  06/11/18
We maed it.
Aphrodisiac address
  06/12/18
YES WE CAN
Sapphire thriller point
  06/12/18
14% return from time op created this thread based on after h...
garnet soggy crackhouse
  06/12/18
14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dolla...
sable nibblets yarmulke
  06/12/18
That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest becau...
self-centered erotic old irish cottage sanctuary
  06/12/18
lmao Makan u faggot
floppy chapel pocket flask
  06/12/18
how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next coupl...
Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse
  06/12/18
Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidl...
Low-t parlor newt
  06/12/18
http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-s...
self-centered erotic old irish cottage sanctuary
  06/13/18
when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days
Sapphire thriller point
  06/13/18
...
Sooty karate
  06/13/18
Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  06/13/18
...
Sooty karate
  06/13/18
I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't kno...
Sapphire thriller point
  06/13/18
...
Sooty karate
  06/13/18
cr. Will sell now
Sapphire thriller point
  06/13/18
I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal close...
Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse
  06/13/18
The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.9...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  06/13/18
...
Sooty karate
  06/13/18
T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally un...
floppy chapel pocket flask
  06/13/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: November 15th, 2017 3:04 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the tough stance the DOJ is taking right now. $15 upside from here. Will happen within a matter of months. CONVICTION BUY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34693977)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

FRIENDLY REMINDER

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699879)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: bright contagious clown

this is still a good buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699884)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock portion changes depending on where T falls within a certain collar, but given the current price of T it's well outside of that collar and fixed at 1.437). CONVICTION BUY.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699899)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Awkward weed whacker nursing home

It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREAT price

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699882)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:35 AM
Author: bright contagious clown

do you ENDORSE this buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: Awkward weed whacker nursing home

I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this is a good risk. If you want the upside benefit you can buy straight T stock - almost a 6% yield.

I personally think that AT&T is doing the right thing to win in the long term right now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699903)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:38 AM
Author: Razzle-dazzle well-lubricated box office halford

Thank

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699914)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

u fuckin fagets are missin out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700013)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: bright contagious clown

I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:55 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down on that headline. But the DOJ will almost certainly lose if they make it to court. Most likely scenario is they settle with AT&T prior to the lawsuit ever seeing court.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700043)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 17th, 2017 1:07 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with the DOJ so we can slam this bad boy shut!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34710049)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 10:59 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by the DOJ. Any lawyers poast on this board?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739080)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:01 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739091)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:02 AM
Author: bonkers salmon potus

How can I buy stocks on coinbase

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739095)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: lake arrogant sound barrier

didn't even go down with yesterday's news

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739105)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:06 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without seeing the complaint people were afraid they might have a strong case. Complaint looked on the weaker side when it was released. Still a binary event here with some deal risk, but most observers think the DOJ doesn't have much of a case here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739119)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: lake arrogant sound barrier

is it too late to buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739127)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:11 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from here. If the deal get blocked you're likely looking at $8-10 downside. But today's news definitely appears bullish for approval.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739154)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: Aphrodisiac address

In for $1000.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739107)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 6:54 AM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34760892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignoring xo tips

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739126)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:12 AM
Author: lake arrogant sound barrier

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739158)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:22 AM
Author: copper bateful shitlib indirect expression

Same reasoning, same amount.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739240)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:18 AM
Author: copper bateful shitlib indirect expression

Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfolds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739206)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:21 AM
Author: bonkers salmon potus

What does exeunt say

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739227)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:52 AM
Author: khaki dashing principal's office famous landscape painting

Buy index funds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34761064)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:26 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Note there are two risks here:

-The main risk is the judge sides with the DOJ and the merger gets blocked. This seems unlikely based on precedent, the strength of the complaint, and the assigned judge, but it could happen. The DOJ could produce smoking gun internal docs showing AT&T is looking to reduce competition with this merger or some such thing, and we could go back to pre-Bork antitrust precedent. If the deal breaks TWX probably trades in the low $80s.

-This is a cash-and-stock merger, so if AT&T goes down, the stock portion of the consideration will also go down. Right now the deal terms are 1.437 shares of T plus $53.75 cash, but the stock ratio will change if AT&T rallies significantly. If you want to hedge out the T risk, you could short T shares against the TWX buy. But T has gotten pummeled lately, so it's hard to see it getting smoked much more from here.

Bottom line, if you think this merger is going through, this spread is extremely juicy. But like anything else, it's not risk-free.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739265)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:27 AM
Author: laughsome orchid cruise ship dysfunction

my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739276)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:56 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law dorks who care to take a look at this should be able to gain some insight here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739521)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 12:00 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac address

Antitrust is voodoo magic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739539)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: Awkward weed whacker nursing home

PREACH

XO should be handicapping the odds on this like masterd00ds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34744304)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:05 PM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

CNBC just said they changed the judge

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739990)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:20 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself because his wife works for a law firm who represented T) to a GWB appointee. We were on top of this at the time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740122)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

oh okay nice

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740131)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:09 PM
Author: abusive stage mood

copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:10 PM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

did you sellcuck?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740028)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: abusive stage mood

no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last xo pick I ran with was Intrepid Potash.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740137)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:22 PM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740146)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: abusive stage mood



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34764731)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 27th, 2017 1:37 PM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

welp

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34781898)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

What's the problem brother

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799548)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: abusive stage mood

did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill the entire market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799553)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:56 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

No it's making new highs!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799627)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:00 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spread is still super wide because T has been ripping. Will probably pull back a little bit from here (but lots of potential upside left if T wins/settles the lawsuit).



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835068)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:02 AM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835076)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:03 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical trading call."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835094)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:06 AM
Author: Awkward weed whacker nursing home

If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get have a very very solid yield

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835110)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2018 9:31 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35294682)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

thank you for your good service

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304774)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 11:40 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

noTWXers crying, losing hoap

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304591)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely merger approval?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304769)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 3:35 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll get cash and T shares. I have no real opinion on T shares, so I'll be out upon deal closure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35307111)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 5:47 AM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/hedge-funds-pile-into-time-warner-in-bet-on-merger-prevailing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443345)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 6:09 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443387)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:48 AM
Author: Sapphire thriller point



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444218)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse

Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking with me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443651)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 9:02 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - would be very hard to justify blocking the deal given the strength in streaming services.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443663)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse

What happens now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35446560)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but it's hard to see his path to success - AT&T just needs to pull up a chart of NFLX as their defense.

Some sell-side shops are saying TWX would trade above deal price if the deal broke (I don't agree), but improving fundamentals for the space can't hurt. Most likely outcome is still judge rules in favor of AT&T and the deal goes through.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453348)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:24 PM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453361)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse

I HELD I LOVE YOU

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234482)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:58 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444299)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:06 PM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453210)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

is it up big or down

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453351)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453353)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

unnnnghhhhhhhh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453357)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:05 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial is getting delayed two days because people think a settlement is coming. It probably won't happen immediately but that doesn't change the fact that the DOJ has a pure and utter shit-tier case.

LJL at not owning this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35611951)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 9:49 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35636677)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637104)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: marvelous theatre lettuce

really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basically no alpha.

My longs are up 20-40% since then, mostly industrial names.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637110)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:03 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637119)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:04 AM
Author: Awkward weed whacker nursing home

Arbs like this are market isolated

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637123)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:05 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

lol jfc

10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's still significant upside from here. You're also not wearing the downside risk of buying industrial or tech names or whatever the hell you have in your portfolio.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637129)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:07 AM
Author: Citrine Multi-colored Casino

great call actually and it's going to the moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637134)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:35 AM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

when moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644755)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:52 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible they settle before then (good) or they win at trial (good) or they lose at trial (bad). First two outcomes are far more likely though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644859)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:31 PM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677308)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:35 PM
Author: diverse crystalline resort background story

Civ #?

Ty for the info.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677331)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:23 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668718)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:33 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-tier gaped. Thesis is looking better than ever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668762)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:35 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668770)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:22 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, is set to take the stand today. The thrust of his argument is based on the Nash equilibrium model, which is more theoretical than practical and can be easily tweaked depending on the real world assumptions one uses. Most market participants feel the DOJ has done a poor job convincing Judge Leon this merger will substantially reduce competition thus far.

We will see what unfolds!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815077)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:30 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T staying in the gutter (which was a risk outlined in the OP). The theoretical deal spread is now tighter than it's been in months.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815142)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 5:38 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35857361)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 7:33 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923066)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:46 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923224)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:48 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk outlined upthread - if you are short T you can hedge against this)

On the flip side:

“AT&T IS KILLING THEM”: THE D.O.J. SPURNED A POSSIBLE PEACE OFFERING OVER THE $86 BILLION AT&T-TIME WARNER MERGER—AND NOW THE TRIAL IS ENTERING THE ENDGAME

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/att-time-warner-merger-doj-case



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923235)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:50 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923241)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:52 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923255)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923277)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:12 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

The trial should be done by early next week, and from there the judge may take 4-6 weeks to write his opinion based on his previous comments. I expect we'll have a pretty good sense of how he'll rule before the opinion is published, but you're looking at like a June 1st-15th ruling.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923339)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923349)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:42 AM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal broke, TWX probably settles higher than the deal price, but it will take time and you'd have arb selling pressure in the short term. If you're looking for a quick profit, you just want the judge to rule in AT&T's favor and the deal to get done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923499)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:46 PM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

When are you selling your TWX stock bro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238426)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:29 AM
Author: Awkward weed whacker nursing home

I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if theyre gonna win this case to buy TWX?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924107)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924117)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:34 AM
Author: Awkward weed whacker nursing home

ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case here.

If you buy the AT&T stock right and TWX cashflow helps the company like the CEO of AT&T says it will - I think AT&T is an extremely solid long term hold for many years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924134)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 11:58 AM
Author: Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse

Fuck twx is at 91 today

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014864)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:16 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac address

:(

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014997)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:02 PM
Author: milky water buffalo new version

Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014897)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 4th, 2018 3:30 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac address

Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2018/05/29/u-s-government-more-likely-to-win-at-t-time-warner.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36182275)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 11th, 2018 2:57 AM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

Ruling this week!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36221862)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:51 PM
Author: Aphrodisiac address

We maed it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232560)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:52 PM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

YES WE CAN

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232566)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: garnet soggy crackhouse

14% return from time op created this thread based on after hours price of $101.50

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:48 PM
Author: sable nibblets yarmulke

14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dollars for paltry sum

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234550)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: self-centered erotic old irish cottage sanctuary

That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest because they're risk adverse lawcucks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232584)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:56 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

lmao Makan u faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232600)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:45 PM
Author: Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse

how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next couple days? i will probably sell then.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234518)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 10:38 PM
Author: Low-t parlor newt

Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidly below 1yr and 5yr highs, and that dividend is juicy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234906)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: self-centered erotic old irish cottage sanctuary

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-services-domestic/t-atandt/

the dividend is the only reason to own T. Just park your money there and cop dat der dividend.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36236573)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:44 PM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238410)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:47 PM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238434)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:48 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling pressure from arbs until 6/20, after which it will probably rally.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238439)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:49 PM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238453)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:12 PM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't know if I should expect another 5 to 10% bump or not within the next week or so

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239495)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:17 PM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239545)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: Sapphire thriller point

cr. Will sell now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239556)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: Charcoal Kitty Whorehouse

I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal closes below 100, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239519)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.90. really depends where T goes from here. Arbs were clearly underhedged going into this, but T should bounce hard either soon before the deal closes or right after.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239561)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:21 PM
Author: Sooty karate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: floppy chapel pocket flask

T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally unforeseen given arb flows.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239601)