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If ur not buying TWX ur insane

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the ...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/15/17
FRIENDLY REMINDER
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/16/17
this is still a good buy?
Hateful Chrome Legend
  11/16/17
Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock po...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/16/17
It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREA...
Haunting Seedy Azn
  11/16/17
do you ENDORSE this buy?
Hateful Chrome Legend
  11/16/17
I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this ...
Haunting Seedy Azn
  11/16/17
Thank
nubile iridescent heaven
  11/16/17
u fuckin fagets are missin out
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/16/17
I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds
Hateful Chrome Legend
  11/16/17
DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down ...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/16/17
Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with t...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/17/17
Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by th...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/21/17
Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/21/17
How can I buy stocks on coinbase
irate razzmatazz selfie
  11/21/17
didn't even go down with yesterday's news
bearded buck-toothed forum
  11/21/17
It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/21/17
is it too late to buy?
bearded buck-toothed forum
  11/21/17
If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/21/17
In for $1000.
Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school
  11/21/17
same
deranged turdskin
  11/24/17
in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignorin...
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  11/21/17
same
bearded buck-toothed forum
  11/21/17
Same reasoning, same amount.
Bateful metal philosopher-king
  11/21/17
Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfold...
Bateful metal philosopher-king
  11/21/17
What does exeunt say
irate razzmatazz selfie
  11/21/17
Buy index funds
puce hospital death wish
  11/24/17
Note there are two risks here: -The main risk is the judg...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/21/17
my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.
doobsian pea-brained ticket booth becky
  11/21/17
btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/21/17
Antitrust is voodoo magic.
Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school
  11/21/17
PREACH XO should be handicapping the odds on this like ma...
Haunting Seedy Azn
  11/21/17
CNBC just said they changed the judge
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  11/21/17
They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself...
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/21/17
oh okay nice
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  11/21/17
copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.
amber weed whacker
  11/21/17
did you sellcuck?
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  11/21/17
no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last...
amber weed whacker
  11/21/17
oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  11/21/17
...
amber weed whacker
  11/24/17
welp
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  11/27/17
What's the problem brother
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/29/17
did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill t...
amber weed whacker
  11/29/17
No it's making new highs!
sable garrison mental disorder
  11/29/17
Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spr...
sable garrison mental disorder
  12/04/17
I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  12/04/17
Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical tr...
sable garrison mental disorder
  12/04/17
If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get hav...
Haunting Seedy Azn
  12/04/17
Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?
sable garrison mental disorder
  02/01/18
thank you for your good service
deranged turdskin
  02/02/18
noTWXers crying, losing hoap
sable garrison mental disorder
  02/02/18
long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely me...
deranged turdskin
  02/02/18
This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll...
sable garrison mental disorder
  02/02/18
dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice: ...
deranged turdskin
  02/20/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  02/20/18
...
deranged turdskin
  02/20/18
Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking ...
magenta gas station stain
  02/20/18
I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - wou...
sable garrison mental disorder
  02/20/18
What happens now
magenta gas station stain
  02/20/18
idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but i...
sable garrison mental disorder
  02/21/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  02/21/18
I HELD I LOVE YOU
magenta gas station stain
  06/12/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  02/20/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  02/21/18
is it up big or down
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  02/21/18
Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.
sable garrison mental disorder
  02/21/18
unnnnghhhhhhhh
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  02/21/18
The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial ...
sable garrison mental disorder
  03/15/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  03/19/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  03/19/18
really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basic...
Rusted motley station
  03/19/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  03/19/18
Arbs like this are market isolated
Haunting Seedy Azn
  03/19/18
lol jfc 10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's sti...
sable garrison mental disorder
  03/19/18
great call actually and it's going to the moon
Frozen Supple Public Bath
  03/19/18
when moon
deranged turdskin
  03/20/18
Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible the...
sable garrison mental disorder
  03/20/18
ty
deranged turdskin
  03/24/18
Civ #? Ty for the info.
concupiscible indian lodge hunting ground
  03/24/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  03/23/18
DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-ti...
sable garrison mental disorder
  03/23/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  03/23/18
The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, ...
sable garrison mental disorder
  04/11/18
Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T stayin...
sable garrison mental disorder
  04/11/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  04/17/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  04/26/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  04/26/18
Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk ou...
sable garrison mental disorder
  04/26/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  04/26/18
Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more thoug...
sable garrison mental disorder
  04/26/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  04/26/18
The trial should be done by early next week, and from there ...
sable garrison mental disorder
  04/26/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  04/26/18
Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal br...
sable garrison mental disorder
  04/26/18
When are you selling your TWX stock bro?
deranged turdskin
  06/13/18
I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if ...
Haunting Seedy Azn
  04/26/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  04/26/18
ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case h...
Haunting Seedy Azn
  04/26/18
Fuck twx is at 91 today
magenta gas station stain
  05/09/18
:(
Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school
  05/09/18
Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?
Comical Bearded Center Party Of The First Part
  05/09/18
Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt. https://www.bizjournals...
Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school
  06/04/18
Ruling this week!
deranged turdskin
  06/11/18
We maed it.
Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school
  06/12/18
YES WE CAN
deranged turdskin
  06/12/18
14% return from time op created this thread based on after h...
thirsty regret stead
  06/12/18
14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dolla...
chocolate razzle abode
  06/12/18
That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest becau...
thriller violent degenerate theater stage
  06/12/18
lmao Makan u faggot
sable garrison mental disorder
  06/12/18
how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next coupl...
magenta gas station stain
  06/12/18
Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidl...
impressive lavender locale organic girlfriend
  06/12/18
http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-s...
thriller violent degenerate theater stage
  06/13/18
when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days
deranged turdskin
  06/13/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  06/13/18
Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling...
sable garrison mental disorder
  06/13/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  06/13/18
I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't kno...
deranged turdskin
  06/13/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  06/13/18
cr. Will sell now
deranged turdskin
  06/13/18
I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal close...
magenta gas station stain
  06/13/18
The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.9...
sable garrison mental disorder
  06/13/18
...
Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface
  06/13/18
T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally un...
sable garrison mental disorder
  06/13/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: November 15th, 2017 3:04 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the tough stance the DOJ is taking right now. $15 upside from here. Will happen within a matter of months. CONVICTION BUY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34693977)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

FRIENDLY REMINDER

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699879)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Hateful Chrome Legend

this is still a good buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699884)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock portion changes depending on where T falls within a certain collar, but given the current price of T it's well outside of that collar and fixed at 1.437). CONVICTION BUY.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699899)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Haunting Seedy Azn

It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREAT price

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699882)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:35 AM
Author: Hateful Chrome Legend

do you ENDORSE this buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: Haunting Seedy Azn

I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this is a good risk. If you want the upside benefit you can buy straight T stock - almost a 6% yield.

I personally think that AT&T is doing the right thing to win in the long term right now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699903)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:38 AM
Author: nubile iridescent heaven

Thank

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699914)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

u fuckin fagets are missin out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700013)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: Hateful Chrome Legend

I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:55 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down on that headline. But the DOJ will almost certainly lose if they make it to court. Most likely scenario is they settle with AT&T prior to the lawsuit ever seeing court.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700043)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 17th, 2017 1:07 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with the DOJ so we can slam this bad boy shut!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34710049)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 10:59 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by the DOJ. Any lawyers poast on this board?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739080)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:01 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739091)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:02 AM
Author: irate razzmatazz selfie

How can I buy stocks on coinbase

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739095)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: bearded buck-toothed forum

didn't even go down with yesterday's news

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739105)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:06 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without seeing the complaint people were afraid they might have a strong case. Complaint looked on the weaker side when it was released. Still a binary event here with some deal risk, but most observers think the DOJ doesn't have much of a case here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739119)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: bearded buck-toothed forum

is it too late to buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739127)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:11 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from here. If the deal get blocked you're likely looking at $8-10 downside. But today's news definitely appears bullish for approval.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739154)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school

In for $1000.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739107)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 6:54 AM
Author: deranged turdskin

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34760892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignoring xo tips

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739126)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:12 AM
Author: bearded buck-toothed forum

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739158)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:22 AM
Author: Bateful metal philosopher-king

Same reasoning, same amount.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739240)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:18 AM
Author: Bateful metal philosopher-king

Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfolds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739206)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:21 AM
Author: irate razzmatazz selfie

What does exeunt say

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739227)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:52 AM
Author: puce hospital death wish

Buy index funds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34761064)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:26 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Note there are two risks here:

-The main risk is the judge sides with the DOJ and the merger gets blocked. This seems unlikely based on precedent, the strength of the complaint, and the assigned judge, but it could happen. The DOJ could produce smoking gun internal docs showing AT&T is looking to reduce competition with this merger or some such thing, and we could go back to pre-Bork antitrust precedent. If the deal breaks TWX probably trades in the low $80s.

-This is a cash-and-stock merger, so if AT&T goes down, the stock portion of the consideration will also go down. Right now the deal terms are 1.437 shares of T plus $53.75 cash, but the stock ratio will change if AT&T rallies significantly. If you want to hedge out the T risk, you could short T shares against the TWX buy. But T has gotten pummeled lately, so it's hard to see it getting smoked much more from here.

Bottom line, if you think this merger is going through, this spread is extremely juicy. But like anything else, it's not risk-free.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739265)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:27 AM
Author: doobsian pea-brained ticket booth becky

my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739276)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:56 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law dorks who care to take a look at this should be able to gain some insight here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739521)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 12:00 PM
Author: Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school

Antitrust is voodoo magic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739539)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: Haunting Seedy Azn

PREACH

XO should be handicapping the odds on this like masterd00ds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34744304)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:05 PM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

CNBC just said they changed the judge

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739990)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:20 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself because his wife works for a law firm who represented T) to a GWB appointee. We were on top of this at the time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740122)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

oh okay nice

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740131)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:09 PM
Author: amber weed whacker

copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:10 PM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

did you sellcuck?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740028)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: amber weed whacker

no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last xo pick I ran with was Intrepid Potash.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740137)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:22 PM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740146)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: amber weed whacker



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34764731)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 27th, 2017 1:37 PM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

welp

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34781898)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

What's the problem brother

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799548)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: amber weed whacker

did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill the entire market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799553)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:56 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

No it's making new highs!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799627)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:00 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spread is still super wide because T has been ripping. Will probably pull back a little bit from here (but lots of potential upside left if T wins/settles the lawsuit).



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835068)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:02 AM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835076)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:03 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical trading call."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835094)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:06 AM
Author: Haunting Seedy Azn

If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get have a very very solid yield

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835110)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2018 9:31 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35294682)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: deranged turdskin

thank you for your good service

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304774)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 11:40 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

noTWXers crying, losing hoap

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304591)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: deranged turdskin

long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely merger approval?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304769)



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Date: February 2nd, 2018 3:35 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll get cash and T shares. I have no real opinion on T shares, so I'll be out upon deal closure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35307111)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 5:47 AM
Author: deranged turdskin

dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/hedge-funds-pile-into-time-warner-in-bet-on-merger-prevailing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443345)



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Date: February 20th, 2018 6:09 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443387)



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Date: February 20th, 2018 10:48 AM
Author: deranged turdskin



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444218)



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Date: February 20th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: magenta gas station stain

Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking with me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443651)



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Date: February 20th, 2018 9:02 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - would be very hard to justify blocking the deal given the strength in streaming services.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443663)



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Date: February 20th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: magenta gas station stain

What happens now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35446560)



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Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but it's hard to see his path to success - AT&T just needs to pull up a chart of NFLX as their defense.

Some sell-side shops are saying TWX would trade above deal price if the deal broke (I don't agree), but improving fundamentals for the space can't hurt. Most likely outcome is still judge rules in favor of AT&T and the deal goes through.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453348)



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Date: February 21st, 2018 2:24 PM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453361)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: magenta gas station stain

I HELD I LOVE YOU

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234482)



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Date: February 20th, 2018 10:58 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444299)



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Date: February 21st, 2018 2:06 PM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453210)



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Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

is it up big or down

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453351)



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Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453353)



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Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

unnnnghhhhhhhh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453357)



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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:05 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial is getting delayed two days because people think a settlement is coming. It probably won't happen immediately but that doesn't change the fact that the DOJ has a pure and utter shit-tier case.

LJL at not owning this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35611951)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 9:49 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35636677)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637104)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: Rusted motley station

really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basically no alpha.

My longs are up 20-40% since then, mostly industrial names.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637110)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 11:03 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637119)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 11:04 AM
Author: Haunting Seedy Azn

Arbs like this are market isolated

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637123)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 11:05 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

lol jfc

10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's still significant upside from here. You're also not wearing the downside risk of buying industrial or tech names or whatever the hell you have in your portfolio.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637129)



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Date: March 19th, 2018 11:07 AM
Author: Frozen Supple Public Bath

great call actually and it's going to the moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637134)



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Date: March 20th, 2018 11:35 AM
Author: deranged turdskin

when moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644755)



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Date: March 20th, 2018 11:52 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible they settle before then (good) or they win at trial (good) or they lose at trial (bad). First two outcomes are far more likely though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644859)



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Date: March 24th, 2018 12:31 PM
Author: deranged turdskin

ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677308)



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Date: March 24th, 2018 12:35 PM
Author: concupiscible indian lodge hunting ground

Civ #?

Ty for the info.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677331)



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Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:23 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668718)



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Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:33 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-tier gaped. Thesis is looking better than ever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668762)



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Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:35 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668770)



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Date: April 11th, 2018 10:22 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, is set to take the stand today. The thrust of his argument is based on the Nash equilibrium model, which is more theoretical than practical and can be easily tweaked depending on the real world assumptions one uses. Most market participants feel the DOJ has done a poor job convincing Judge Leon this merger will substantially reduce competition thus far.

We will see what unfolds!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815077)



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Date: April 11th, 2018 10:30 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T staying in the gutter (which was a risk outlined in the OP). The theoretical deal spread is now tighter than it's been in months.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815142)



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Date: April 17th, 2018 5:38 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35857361)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 7:33 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923066)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 8:46 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923224)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 8:48 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk outlined upthread - if you are short T you can hedge against this)

On the flip side:

“AT&T IS KILLING THEM”: THE D.O.J. SPURNED A POSSIBLE PEACE OFFERING OVER THE $86 BILLION AT&T-TIME WARNER MERGER—AND NOW THE TRIAL IS ENTERING THE ENDGAME

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/att-time-warner-merger-doj-case



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923235)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:50 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923241)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 8:52 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923255)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923277)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 9:12 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

The trial should be done by early next week, and from there the judge may take 4-6 weeks to write his opinion based on his previous comments. I expect we'll have a pretty good sense of how he'll rule before the opinion is published, but you're looking at like a June 1st-15th ruling.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923339)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923349)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 9:42 AM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal broke, TWX probably settles higher than the deal price, but it will take time and you'd have arb selling pressure in the short term. If you're looking for a quick profit, you just want the judge to rule in AT&T's favor and the deal to get done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923499)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 1:46 PM
Author: deranged turdskin

When are you selling your TWX stock bro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238426)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:29 AM
Author: Haunting Seedy Azn

I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if theyre gonna win this case to buy TWX?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924107)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924117)



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Date: April 26th, 2018 11:34 AM
Author: Haunting Seedy Azn

ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case here.

If you buy the AT&T stock right and TWX cashflow helps the company like the CEO of AT&T says it will - I think AT&T is an extremely solid long term hold for many years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924134)



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Date: May 9th, 2018 11:58 AM
Author: magenta gas station stain

Fuck twx is at 91 today

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014864)



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Date: May 9th, 2018 12:16 PM
Author: Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school

:(

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014997)



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Date: May 9th, 2018 12:02 PM
Author: Comical Bearded Center Party Of The First Part

Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014897)



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Date: June 4th, 2018 3:30 PM
Author: Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school

Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2018/05/29/u-s-government-more-likely-to-win-at-t-time-warner.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36182275)



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Date: June 11th, 2018 2:57 AM
Author: deranged turdskin

Ruling this week!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36221862)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 4:51 PM
Author: Low-t arrogant fortuitous meteor school

We maed it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232560)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 4:52 PM
Author: deranged turdskin

YES WE CAN

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232566)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: thirsty regret stead

14% return from time op created this thread based on after hours price of $101.50

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232578)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 9:48 PM
Author: chocolate razzle abode

14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dollars for paltry sum

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234550)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: thriller violent degenerate theater stage

That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest because they're risk adverse lawcucks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232584)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 4:56 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

lmao Makan u faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232600)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 9:45 PM
Author: magenta gas station stain

how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next couple days? i will probably sell then.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234518)



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Date: June 12th, 2018 10:38 PM
Author: impressive lavender locale organic girlfriend

Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidly below 1yr and 5yr highs, and that dividend is juicy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234906)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: thriller violent degenerate theater stage

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-services-domestic/t-atandt/

the dividend is the only reason to own T. Just park your money there and cop dat der dividend.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36236573)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 1:44 PM
Author: deranged turdskin

when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238410)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:47 PM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238434)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 1:48 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling pressure from arbs until 6/20, after which it will probably rally.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238439)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:49 PM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238453)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 4:12 PM
Author: deranged turdskin

I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't know if I should expect another 5 to 10% bump or not within the next week or so

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239495)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:17 PM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239545)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: deranged turdskin

cr. Will sell now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239556)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: magenta gas station stain

I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal closes below 100, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239519)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.90. really depends where T goes from here. Arbs were clearly underhedged going into this, but T should bounce hard either soon before the deal closes or right after.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239561)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:21 PM
Author: Judgmental Charismatic Pervert Ratface



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239578)



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Date: June 13th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: sable garrison mental disorder

T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally unforeseen given arb flows.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239601)