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Know a guy who makes $40k month as a day/swing trader.

Not flame. He's from the Phoenix, AZ area.
Aromatic keepsake machete
  11/23/17
(it is 1999)
free-loading becky karate
  11/23/17
how much capital does he have to work with
Metal smoky stage fanboi
  11/23/17
$200k in trading capital.
Aromatic keepsake machete
  11/23/17
he's full of shit 40k was probably a good month for him. ...
Honey-headed stimulating address psychic
  11/23/17
No. He's not trading large cap stocks. Pretty much all of hi...
Aromatic keepsake machete
  11/23/17
just think about this carefully. how likely is it that a guy...
Honey-headed stimulating address psychic
  11/23/17
What? You assume he's been trading for years and should have...
Aromatic keepsake machete
  11/23/17
ok, so he's been doing this for a short while. doesn't say m...
Honey-headed stimulating address psychic
  11/23/17
I'm a prop trader (ie I do this for a living at a firm) and ...
Harsh Sweet Tailpipe
  11/23/17
your LL and TNDM picks were 180 what should we buy now?
stirring indian lodge
  11/23/17
Tndm didn't really pop like I wanted. I still check the stoc...
Harsh Sweet Tailpipe
  11/23/17
15% for a 2 week trade was still great. i got out when it hi...
stirring indian lodge
  11/23/17
how did your LL position work out? i know it popped after yo...
Honey-headed stimulating address psychic
  11/23/17
Eh it worked decently. Would have hoped it to continue so I ...
Harsh Sweet Tailpipe
  11/23/17
Also sold $5k of BTC at $2k a few months ago despite telling...
Harsh Sweet Tailpipe
  11/23/17
I don't want to miss your recs in the future, any cr way to ...
azure self-absorbed hell generalized bond
  11/23/17
I'll put it on blast. Or maybe I'll just make one thread I k...
Harsh Sweet Tailpipe
  11/23/17
crypto is insanely inefficient. have you thought about apply...
Honey-headed stimulating address psychic
  11/23/17
OFS. Only problem is the technology and I wouldn't be patien...
Harsh Sweet Tailpipe
  11/23/17
Isn’t it highly variable?
Awkward Medicated Area International Law Enforcement Agency
  11/23/17
no, this guy has just decided he'll make 40k a month every m...
Crimson Excitant Famous Landscape Painting Trump Supporter
  11/23/17
Oh, wow. Smart.
Awkward Medicated Area International Law Enforcement Agency
  11/23/17
unless you are market making its impossible to consistently ...
stirring indian lodge
  11/23/17
i'd say top .5%
Honey-headed stimulating address psychic
  11/23/17
i wanted to be safe. the answer is probably in between our e...
stirring indian lodge
  11/23/17
This
Awkward Medicated Area International Law Enforcement Agency
  11/23/17
Institutions don't trade these stocks, that's why there's st...
Harsh Sweet Tailpipe
  11/23/17
medallion has averaged closer to 40%. 80% gross of fees.
Honey-headed stimulating address psychic
  11/23/17
medallion is pretty much HFT/market making right?
stirring indian lodge
  11/23/17
not necessarily market making. it's a statistical arb firm, ...
Honey-headed stimulating address psychic
  11/23/17
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/renaissan...
stirring indian lodge
  11/23/17
I'm inclined to agree with Munger's opinion about Medallion ...
translucent swashbuckling parlour
  11/23/17
Let’s do this but for crypto
garnet idiot
  11/23/17
20 percent a year is less than 2 percent a month.
Awkward Medicated Area International Law Enforcement Agency
  11/23/17
20% a yr as an independent trader is not good (it's less tha...
Aromatic keepsake machete
  11/23/17
i know this. but even with 200K a guy consistently making 20...
stirring indian lodge
  11/23/17
IIRC the top dudes who are day trading and end up flat at th...
translucent swashbuckling parlour
  11/23/17
100% cr lol @ people saying its only 2% a month as if mak...
stirring indian lodge
  11/23/17
Ya. That's why I quit trading early in my career - once I...
translucent swashbuckling parlour
  11/23/17
I loaded up on nktr sq and ostk recently. My trading acct at...
garnet idiot
  11/23/17
NKTR is a great Trump play. That's one of my convinction lon...
Harsh Sweet Tailpipe
  11/23/17
180
garnet idiot
  11/23/17
Acct up to 313k!!! Started reluctantly taking some profits t...
garnet idiot
  11/24/17


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:29 PM
Author: Aromatic keepsake machete

Not flame. He's from the Phoenix, AZ area.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758048)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:30 PM
Author: free-loading becky karate

(it is 1999)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758051)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:30 PM
Author: Metal smoky stage fanboi

how much capital does he have to work with

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758054)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:31 PM
Author: Aromatic keepsake machete

$200k in trading capital.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758057)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:41 PM
Author: Honey-headed stimulating address psychic

he's full of shit

40k was probably a good month for him. if he could average 20% on his capital monthly, he's god.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758098)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:41 PM
Author: Aromatic keepsake machete

No. He's not trading large cap stocks. Pretty much all of his trades involve stocks under $15.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758103)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:42 PM
Author: Honey-headed stimulating address psychic

just think about this carefully. how likely is it that a guy who can generate $40k a month would have a grand total of $200K in capital?

also the whole trading stocks only under $15 suggests he's a retard.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758109)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:43 PM
Author: Aromatic keepsake machete

What? You assume he's been trading for years and should have a $2mm trading account.

Not ALL of his trades involve stocks under $15, just the majority. If there's a great play involving a $150 stock, he'll play it, but it's not his bread and butter.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758115)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:51 PM
Author: Honey-headed stimulating address psychic

ok, so he's been doing this for a short while. doesn't say much about his abilities. the past year and a half has been remarkably benign.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758140)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:49 PM
Author: Harsh Sweet Tailpipe

I'm a prop trader (ie I do this for a living at a firm) and I find this hard to believe. That's probably a good month or couple of months. It's definitely possible - guys like Tim Sykes have turned 20k into 1mm day trading - but no way he pulled 20% returns month over month for an extended period.

Sept - now has been great for low floats and biotechs so I don't doubt he's been killing it recently

I'd be curious to know what his strategy is. If he sticks to technicals, news events, after hours, etc.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758131)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:50 PM
Author: stirring indian lodge

your LL and TNDM picks were 180

what should we buy now?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758134)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:52 PM
Author: Harsh Sweet Tailpipe

Tndm didn't really pop like I wanted. I still check the stock everyday because it has the #'s to supernova after the last reverse split and warrant deal

Edit: I'll post some more picks when I get back in the office Monday. I've been pretty focused in my algos recently

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758141)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:55 PM
Author: stirring indian lodge

15% for a 2 week trade was still great. i got out when it hit 2.9

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758152)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:50 PM
Author: Honey-headed stimulating address psychic

how did your LL position work out? i know it popped after you loaded up on it, but did you get out ahead?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758136)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:53 PM
Author: Harsh Sweet Tailpipe

Eh it worked decently. Would have hoped it to continue so I could have held a legit swing position. And yeah, I was out of most of it within a matter of days

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758143)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:55 PM
Author: Harsh Sweet Tailpipe

Also sold $5k of BTC at $2k a few months ago despite telling myself everyday it was a long, long-term hold. I am human and did have bills to pay

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758150)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:59 PM
Author: azure self-absorbed hell generalized bond

I don't want to miss your recs in the future, any cr way to keep up with your posts?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758167)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:51 PM
Author: Harsh Sweet Tailpipe

I'll put it on blast. Or maybe I'll just make one thread I keep bumping. Lot of stock wisdom on this boart

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758409)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:11 PM
Author: Honey-headed stimulating address psychic

crypto is insanely inefficient. have you thought about applying your trading skillz to crypto more fully?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758230)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:49 PM
Author: Harsh Sweet Tailpipe

OFS. Only problem is the technology and I wouldn't be patient enough to wait for good setups. I trade about 50 different stocks a week and would feel tied down trading just one crypto.

I also don't know how shorts work in crypto and the commissions are pretty high iirc

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758404)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:52 PM
Author: Awkward Medicated Area International Law Enforcement Agency

Isn’t it highly variable?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758142)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:54 PM
Author: Crimson Excitant Famous Landscape Painting Trump Supporter

no, this guy has just decided he'll make 40k a month every month

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758148)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:02 PM
Author: Awkward Medicated Area International Law Enforcement Agency

Oh, wow. Smart.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758172)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:54 PM
Author: stirring indian lodge

unless you are market making its impossible to consistently make 20% month after month especially as a day trader. and even those guys (rentech, GS etc) dont make anything close to 20% a month

if you make > 20% every calendar year day trading then you are probably in the top 5% of all day traders. and this guy is making 20% a month? give me a break

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758146)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:56 PM
Author: Honey-headed stimulating address psychic

i'd say top .5%

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758154)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:00 PM
Author: stirring indian lodge

i wanted to be safe. the answer is probably in between our estimates. probably 1~2% i would guess if we surveyed all day traders and we got a 100% truthful response rate

i think a large majority of day traders dont even make any money and eventually get out of day trading or go bankrupt

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758168)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:03 PM
Author: Awkward Medicated Area International Law Enforcement Agency

This

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758179)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:58 PM
Author: Harsh Sweet Tailpipe

Institutions don't trade these stocks, that's why there's still a lot of egde. There's no reason for Drys to go $3>$100 in 72 hours, or HMNY tongo from 1.30 > $33 in a week last month. At a certain point this shit just becomes a video game.

Ren's medallion fund has AVERAGED 20% y/r for the last decade. They've had a 6 Sharpe and has pretty much been the best fund in modern history. They have pushed their capital limits and really can't get bigger.

The hft and maket making shit is also just designed to get commission from the exchanges and have great returns, but those margins have been eroding over the past few years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758164)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 6:59 PM
Author: Honey-headed stimulating address psychic

medallion has averaged closer to 40%. 80% gross of fees.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758165)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:02 PM
Author: stirring indian lodge

medallion is pretty much HFT/market making right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758174)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:06 PM
Author: Honey-headed stimulating address psychic

not necessarily market making. it's a statistical arb firm, so it will trade any signal it can that it thinks is predictive.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758199)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:10 PM
Author: stirring indian lodge

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/renaissance-s-medallion-made-stunning-shift-after-trump-election

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758223)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:13 PM
Author: translucent swashbuckling parlour

I'm inclined to agree with Munger's opinion about Medallion and Renaissance in general: it's legalized front running

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758236)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:03 PM
Author: garnet idiot

Let’s do this but for crypto

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758178)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:04 PM
Author: Awkward Medicated Area International Law Enforcement Agency

20 percent a year is less than 2 percent a month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758182)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:06 PM
Author: Aromatic keepsake machete

20% a yr as an independent trader is not good (it's less than 2% a month). Stop comparing what's considered good for a billion dollar hedge fund to what's good for an independent trader with a $200k account. An independent trader is much more nimble.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758197)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:09 PM
Author: stirring indian lodge

i know this. but even with 200K a guy consistently making 20% YoY for a good stretch of time (say 10 years) is easily going to be in the top 5% of day traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758214)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:09 PM
Author: translucent swashbuckling parlour

IIRC the top dudes who are day trading and end up flat at the end of each day (chopping quarters and dimes and what not) and not investing their capital averaged about 80% annual returns pre-tax from some random paper I read a few years back, and this is after factoring the enormous washout rate.

From an investor's perspective: They deserve it IMO - the stress is just too much.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758215)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:13 PM
Author: stirring indian lodge

100% cr

lol @ people saying its only 2% a month as if making 2% a month is straightforward. maybe 1% of traders can make 2% a month for couple of years straight. 99% of us would have losing months in there actively day trading

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758237)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:21 PM
Author: translucent swashbuckling parlour

Ya.

That's why I quit trading early in my career - once I had my bank roll up to a decent enough size to take the slow lane I did.

I'm the kind of guy who has no problem spending 20-50+ hours analyzing a companies financials or a situation that makes sense to me and laying out money to make 10-40% depending on the situation and time frame (in a few months or a year or so)

But give me a 20-50 minute time frame or even intraday? Outside of some extremely limited situations no way could I make any money consistently.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758275)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:05 PM
Author: garnet idiot

I loaded up on nktr sq and ostk recently. My trading acct at IB started the week at 250k but is now at 305k. Also holding MOMO, ttd, anet. Recently bought splk and skx. I recognize that this is insanely retarded luck but feels 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758192)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 7:50 PM
Author: Harsh Sweet Tailpipe

NKTR is a great Trump play. That's one of my convinction longs just because I think their shit is a game changer. No other fundamental reason

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758407)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 23rd, 2017 8:04 PM
Author: garnet idiot

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34758474)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 10:43 PM
Author: garnet idiot

Acct up to 313k!!! Started reluctantly taking some profits today. I think we’re gonna majorly moon in December but see a sharp pullback before we do

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3807136&forum_id=2#34765473)