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The Midwest is becoming Republican while the South is becoming Democrat
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:25 PM Author: hot prole jewess This is the tipping point. Georgia is next. Whites in southern states will move en masse to other states once they see where their taxes are going. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908726) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:28 PM Author: Big Out-of-control Sweet Tailpipe Office There are a shit ton of northern transplants in the lowcountry of South Carolina - I mean a shit ton, and of all ages. In my law firm, I grew up in CA, my law partner is from NY, my paralegal is from PA, another paralegal is from MI, and one is from SC. Our chief judge is from CA, our chief family court judge is from MA. It's rare that I meet a new client who grew up in SC. It's fucking nuts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908746) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:29 PM Author: Swashbuckling Property Filthpig wtf (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908756) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:40 AM Author: brindle pontificating chapel coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915043) |
Date: December 13th, 2017 12:26 PM Author: mahogany corn cake Lib whites priced out of big northern cities are moving to the South in droves (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908733) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:29 PM Author: lime new version THEY HAVE GOT TO GO BACK (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908761) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:29 PM Author: adulterous mildly autistic indirect expression jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908766) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:39 PM Author: motley juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908856) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 2:36 PM Author: ruby trust fund institution They aren't sending their best. Believe me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34910002) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:32 PM Author: cocky pale parlour lol VA, NC, TN, GA, and FL are full of lib Northern transplants. the Midwest is a wasteland full of opioid addicts, so it's not surprising it's turning red (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908791) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:35 PM Author: mahogany corn cake Why do they move to the South and not the Midwest? Climate? Coast? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908807) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: cocky pale parlour climate, jobs, culture (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908816) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Swashbuckling Property Filthpig diversity (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908823) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:37 PM Author: Big Out-of-control Sweet Tailpipe Office In my experience, there is a ton of opportunity in pockets of the south. The Lowcountry seems to me to be like how my Dad described Los Angeles in the 70's and 80's (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908831) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:27 AM Author: 180 native scourge upon the earth Can you tell me how LA was in the 80s (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915205) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:48 AM Author: fragrant party of the first part depressive climate. libs don't really "do" cold weather unless they're Minnesotans fresh off teh boat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915063) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:37 PM Author: plum university volcanic crater This is dumb. Any other GOP candidate wins by 20%. VA has gotten continually more lib every year last few years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908829) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:38 PM Author: mahogany corn cake In VA? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908839) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:22 AM Author: titillating impressive haunted graveyard I assume his argument is that Alabama would have gone 20% for a generic R if Moore wasn't on the ballot. I disagree with that though. I think it would have gone about 10% for an R. Moore definitely cost them a ton of votes, but it is indisputable that lib and AA turnout was huge. Jones basically got almost as many votes as Hillary Clinton in an off Presidential year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915189) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:31 AM Author: mahogany corn cake Reminder for the South, demographics is destiny. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915010) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:38 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface The rate of minority voters has to outpace the rate of Whites abandoning the dems. Eventually whites will vote like other cohorts, it's just a fine balance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915033) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:06 AM Author: Clear Patrolman Meetinghouse Trump will lose FL, GA, NC, in 2020. College educated suburban whites are abandoning the GOP in droves due to Trump. He is the reverse Reagan. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915114) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:08 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface so dems will somehow magically be a party of enlightened whites with college degrees and lower class minorities making welfare wages? Interesting. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915126) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:10 AM Author: mahogany corn cake (it is the year 1959) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915134) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:12 AM Author: titillating impressive haunted graveyard did you not watch the 2008 election?
or the 2017 Virginia governor's race? |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:12 AM Author: Clear Patrolman Meetinghouse The Dem coalition is college whites+blacks+latinos+asians+young voters. That's enough to win. It helped Trump that he managed to win college whites by 4 points, along with the massive white working class turnout. But in 2020, he will be judged on his record, which won't be pretty, so white working class turnout will be diminished while he will lose college whites. That's the election. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915144) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:16 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface Can you acknowledge the GULF between college whites and the average minority voter (don't count azns, unless you are one an this is moot)?
Will you guys all get together and have a big block party? |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:18 AM Author: mahogany corn cake (Henry M. Jackson) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915175) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:20 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface The senator from Boeing? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915184) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:24 AM Author: mahogany corn cake the political alliance you're describing is basically the McGovern coalition, which has existed in decades, and prob reached its height under Obama (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915198) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:32 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface I always thought of scoop as a proto-neocon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915219) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:33 AM Author: mahogany corn cake the point was that he was the anti-McGovern candidate, and hence, lost out the nomination to the McGovern coalition, which is the exact thing you're describing (college educated whites + minority voters). ever since the decline of unions that has been the face of the Dems. how are you unaware of this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915227) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:40 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface you think this fantasy is a stable alliance? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915256) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:42 AM Author: mahogany corn cake it's existed for decades in ever-increasing size. no alliance is stable forever, but you seem to be ignoring its existence, which is bizarre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915261) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:45 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface the alliance of college educated whites that have never gone for a dem candidate in history plus minorities that subsist on welfare? I was mocking the fantasy of this existing. Did you miss my sarcasm? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915280) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:54 AM Author: mahogany corn cake how are you not describing the modern Democratic Party? surely a majority of college educated whites vote for Dems, that's the whole basis of the "college is liberal indoctrination" meme for decades (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915325) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:59 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface I'm too drunk for flame bs right now. every gop, even trump, has won college educated whites. done with this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915346) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:07 AM Author: mahogany corn cake looked it up, you're right. didn't know that it was the historical trend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915379) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:21 AM Author: titillating impressive haunted graveyard Can you acknowledge the GULF between upper income GOP voters on Long Island and Orange County and most GOP voters in rural America? These two groups wouldn't even let their kids interact. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915186) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:31 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface No, I can't in the slightest. The IQ difference would be less than a standard deviation (if at all) and they'd be more like to share cultural/religious norms and physical traits like blue eyes. Do you think those things don't matter? Whites also all share having a white trash 2nd cousin. For reasons I can only speculate about you won't get this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915217) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:36 AM Author: adulterous mildly autistic indirect expression jap it's jjc ljl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915238) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:54 AM Author: razzle really tough guy LOL at trumpmo cognitive dissonance. Isn’t this why you guys are always shittalking UMC, GC, urbanism, shrews and their careerism/lack of interest in prioritizing motherhood/children, etc.? The Obama Dem party is this exact coalition: UMC/GC-deluded MC whites allied with minorities to support “diversity,” handouts to poor people, housing and economic policy that grows urban economies and shits on non-urban areas and pumping hillbillies full of heroin pills. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915326) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:11 AM Author: titillating impressive haunted graveyard I've been saying this for months now.
Virginia was basically the canary in the coal mine because Northern Virginia's population explosion was easily able to quickly overwhelm the rest of the state, which was relatively small compared to other Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina.
However, the same trend is happening in both those states. Georgia should be very concerning to the GOP, particularly in light of the Alabama results. Georgia is basically 1/3 black and growing, and the hispanic/asian population is creeping up. Mix in Northern professional transplants and you basically have a 50/50 state. But on top of that the rural white population is declining. This is the exact same scenario that happened in Virginia.
North Carolina is similar, though in that case the black population is smaller so it is more reliant on transplants. However, Virginia has the smallest black population of the three (20%) and was still able to make this coalition work.
In the west, same thing happened except replace blacks with hispanics. New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada are now all democratic states.
Arizona and Texas will soon follow. California is so unimaginably blue that the GOP will continue to shed congressional seats there.
Basically the GOP is fucked unless it retains the governors mansions in pretty much the entire midwest so it can gerrymander again. Even a neutral redistricting environment will leave them fucked because they will lose about 20 seats there. |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:15 AM Author: Clear Patrolman Meetinghouse Totally agree. The fact that fucking Hillary won Cobb and Gwinnett counties in Georgia was absolutely stunning and should send chills down the GOP's spine. Trump is anathema with not just minorities but college whites, even in the South. The GOP is fucked in 2018 and 2020. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915162) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:20 AM Author: titillating impressive haunted graveyard they are really fucked after 2020.
redistricting is going to be horrible for them for 2 main reasons:
1) they will lose most of their gerrymanders. they already lost VA, NJ based on the governor's races. they already lost PA because they lost the Supreme Court elections there and the court immediately took up gerrymandering, they will also probably lose a handful of governors races in the next year or two. This will cost them at least 2 dozen seats right there.
2) another huge, but not mentioned factor... rural population decay. right now a significant number of GOP congressional districts have lost population. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of DEM districts have gained significant population. This means that the GOP is currently overrepresented in the house. In 2020, when the census forces a new round of redistricting, DEM districts will have to be cut up, putting more DEMS in more districts. Republican districts will have to take in more people. This means rural portions of a state that once held two districts (notably in North Carolina and Virginia) will only hold one.
LJL |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:26 AM Author: mahogany corn cake yeah, lol @ the idea that it's a blue state vs. red state issue. those "Bush country" maps from 2004 had the right idea, but wrong message. there are tons of counties that vote GOP, because they're rural- but it's the urban areas that vote Dem, and they're the ones that are growing.
it's gonna be country vs. city for the foreseeable future |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:57 AM Author: titillating impressive haunted graveyard yes, basically how close you are to a major metro area is 90% of what determines your vote. If you look at the Virginia results the Democrat margins grow bigger and bigger the closer you get to Washington. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915341) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:43 AM Author: Clear Patrolman Meetinghouse The GOP needs to win back the suburbs. They've always lost the big cities, but since Bill Clinton's re-alignment of white suburban voters, GOP has struggled in POTUS elections. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915266) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:48 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface GOP lost two potus elections in predictable cycles? thats your struggle? lol GW crushed suburban voters? I hate contrarian faggots like you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915297) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:55 AM Author: mahogany corn cake GW narrowly won in 2000 (which was a fairly predictable cycle) and won in '04 because of the war (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915332) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:58 AM Author: razzle really tough guy How are Trump and Bannon doing in the suburbs? Weird that the GC corpcon, chamber of commerce poster boy GOP candidates do better in the suburbs than the guys whose signature policy achievement will be getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915342) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:58 AM Author: electric up-to-no-good tanning salon dopamine Bush barely won in 2000 and 2004; his electoral vote victory was very weak. Before Clinton's 1992 re-alignment, GOP crushed in the suburbs.
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:59 AM Author: titillating impressive haunted graveyard what's your point? GW's last election was 13 years ago.
the GOP is obviously declining fast in suburbs, particularly heavily populated ones. That's why they lost Virginia badly this year despite the state not having a major city in it. |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:01 AM Author: Clear Patrolman Meetinghouse yeah that's my point. GOP is only strong in areas of declining populations. unless it wins back the suburbs, it's fucked. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915355) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:04 AM Author: titillating impressive haunted graveyard yeah I know, I am agreeing with you and disagreeing with the other guy.
also, the term "suburbs" is very broad and encompasses a huge array of population centers.
The GOP's numbers are propped up by "suburbs" which are in a lot of cases exurbs or small townships outside of decaying cities in the midwest. If you look at large suburban areas, particularly growing ones like the outskirts of Washington, DC or the suburbs of Phoenix or Atlanta... the GOP vote share is declining fast. |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:06 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface i love that shitlibs think this way (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915371) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:15 AM Author: Garnet Sinister Persian (coming from a guy who backed religious Tea Party candidates over candidates actually popular with urban/suburban voters like Charlie Crist) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915412) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:02 AM Author: razzle really tough guy Suburbs are also becoming denser and more urbanized. Even in red states desirable suburbs are all doing the “walkable, street level retail” planning concepts. It’s a huge cultural shift driving in a third tier city from the inner ring suburbs to 20 minutes further out of the city. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915358) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:00 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface whoa nite crew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915352) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:03 AM Author: adulterous mildly autistic indirect expression jap JJC is poasting in this thread under 2 accts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915359) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:07 AM Author: Vigorous gas station ratface I'm out of my element (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915374) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:46 PM Author: Clear Patrolman Meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34918604) |