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The Midwest is becoming Republican while the South is becoming Democrat
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:25 PM Author: spruce vibrant shrine This is the tipping point. Georgia is next. Whites in southern states will move en masse to other states once they see where their taxes are going. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908726) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:28 PM Author: 180 step-uncle's house cuckold There are a shit ton of northern transplants in the lowcountry of South Carolina - I mean a shit ton, and of all ages. In my law firm, I grew up in CA, my law partner is from NY, my paralegal is from PA, another paralegal is from MI, and one is from SC. Our chief judge is from CA, our chief family court judge is from MA. It's rare that I meet a new client who grew up in SC. It's fucking nuts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908746) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:29 PM Author: glassy costumed main people wtf (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908756) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:40 AM Author: slimy mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915043) |
Date: December 13th, 2017 12:26 PM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping Lib whites priced out of big northern cities are moving to the South in droves (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908733) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:29 PM Author: Light gaped center THEY HAVE GOT TO GO BACK (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908761) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:29 PM Author: Learning disabled garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908766) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:39 PM Author: anal razzle temple mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908856) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 2:36 PM Author: milky aggressive bawdyhouse They aren't sending their best. Believe me. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34910002) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:32 PM Author: Maize Mind-boggling Degenerate lol VA, NC, TN, GA, and FL are full of lib Northern transplants. the Midwest is a wasteland full of opioid addicts, so it's not surprising it's turning red (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908791) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:35 PM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping Why do they move to the South and not the Midwest? Climate? Coast? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908807) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Maize Mind-boggling Degenerate climate, jobs, culture (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908816) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: glassy costumed main people diversity (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908823) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:37 PM Author: 180 step-uncle's house cuckold In my experience, there is a ton of opportunity in pockets of the south. The Lowcountry seems to me to be like how my Dad described Los Angeles in the 70's and 80's (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908831) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:27 AM Author: haunting fuchsia theatre water buffalo Can you tell me how LA was in the 80s (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915205) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:48 AM Author: ultramarine stead organic girlfriend climate. libs don't really "do" cold weather unless they're Minnesotans fresh off teh boat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915063) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:37 PM Author: Snowy comical dingle berry This is dumb. Any other GOP candidate wins by 20%. VA has gotten continually more lib every year last few years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908829) |
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Date: December 13th, 2017 12:38 PM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping In VA? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34908839) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:22 AM Author: lake cheese-eating theater stage I assume his argument is that Alabama would have gone 20% for a generic R if Moore wasn't on the ballot. I disagree with that though. I think it would have gone about 10% for an R. Moore definitely cost them a ton of votes, but it is indisputable that lib and AA turnout was huge. Jones basically got almost as many votes as Hillary Clinton in an off Presidential year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915189) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:31 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping Reminder for the South, demographics is destiny. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915010) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:38 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business The rate of minority voters has to outpace the rate of Whites abandoning the dems. Eventually whites will vote like other cohorts, it's just a fine balance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915033) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:06 AM Author: garnet diverse skinny woman Trump will lose FL, GA, NC, in 2020. College educated suburban whites are abandoning the GOP in droves due to Trump. He is the reverse Reagan. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915114) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:08 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business so dems will somehow magically be a party of enlightened whites with college degrees and lower class minorities making welfare wages? Interesting. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915126) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:10 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping (it is the year 1959) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915134) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:12 AM Author: lake cheese-eating theater stage did you not watch the 2008 election?
or the 2017 Virginia governor's race? |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:12 AM Author: garnet diverse skinny woman The Dem coalition is college whites+blacks+latinos+asians+young voters. That's enough to win. It helped Trump that he managed to win college whites by 4 points, along with the massive white working class turnout. But in 2020, he will be judged on his record, which won't be pretty, so white working class turnout will be diminished while he will lose college whites. That's the election. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915144) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:16 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business Can you acknowledge the GULF between college whites and the average minority voter (don't count azns, unless you are one an this is moot)?
Will you guys all get together and have a big block party? |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:18 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping (Henry M. Jackson) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915175) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:20 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business The senator from Boeing? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915184) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:24 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping the political alliance you're describing is basically the McGovern coalition, which has existed in decades, and prob reached its height under Obama (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915198) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:32 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business I always thought of scoop as a proto-neocon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915219) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:33 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping the point was that he was the anti-McGovern candidate, and hence, lost out the nomination to the McGovern coalition, which is the exact thing you're describing (college educated whites + minority voters). ever since the decline of unions that has been the face of the Dems. how are you unaware of this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915227) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:40 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business you think this fantasy is a stable alliance? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915256) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:42 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping it's existed for decades in ever-increasing size. no alliance is stable forever, but you seem to be ignoring its existence, which is bizarre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915261) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:45 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business the alliance of college educated whites that have never gone for a dem candidate in history plus minorities that subsist on welfare? I was mocking the fantasy of this existing. Did you miss my sarcasm? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915280) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:54 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping how are you not describing the modern Democratic Party? surely a majority of college educated whites vote for Dems, that's the whole basis of the "college is liberal indoctrination" meme for decades (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915325) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:59 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business I'm too drunk for flame bs right now. every gop, even trump, has won college educated whites. done with this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915346) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:07 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping looked it up, you're right. didn't know that it was the historical trend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915379) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:21 AM Author: lake cheese-eating theater stage Can you acknowledge the GULF between upper income GOP voters on Long Island and Orange County and most GOP voters in rural America? These two groups wouldn't even let their kids interact. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915186) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:31 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business No, I can't in the slightest. The IQ difference would be less than a standard deviation (if at all) and they'd be more like to share cultural/religious norms and physical traits like blue eyes. Do you think those things don't matter? Whites also all share having a white trash 2nd cousin. For reasons I can only speculate about you won't get this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915217) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:36 AM Author: Learning disabled garrison it's jjc ljl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915238) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:54 AM Author: Tan lodge sweet tailpipe LOL at trumpmo cognitive dissonance. Isn’t this why you guys are always shittalking UMC, GC, urbanism, shrews and their careerism/lack of interest in prioritizing motherhood/children, etc.? The Obama Dem party is this exact coalition: UMC/GC-deluded MC whites allied with minorities to support “diversity,” handouts to poor people, housing and economic policy that grows urban economies and shits on non-urban areas and pumping hillbillies full of heroin pills. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915326) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:11 AM Author: lake cheese-eating theater stage I've been saying this for months now.
Virginia was basically the canary in the coal mine because Northern Virginia's population explosion was easily able to quickly overwhelm the rest of the state, which was relatively small compared to other Southern states like Georgia and North Carolina.
However, the same trend is happening in both those states. Georgia should be very concerning to the GOP, particularly in light of the Alabama results. Georgia is basically 1/3 black and growing, and the hispanic/asian population is creeping up. Mix in Northern professional transplants and you basically have a 50/50 state. But on top of that the rural white population is declining. This is the exact same scenario that happened in Virginia.
North Carolina is similar, though in that case the black population is smaller so it is more reliant on transplants. However, Virginia has the smallest black population of the three (20%) and was still able to make this coalition work.
In the west, same thing happened except replace blacks with hispanics. New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada are now all democratic states.
Arizona and Texas will soon follow. California is so unimaginably blue that the GOP will continue to shed congressional seats there.
Basically the GOP is fucked unless it retains the governors mansions in pretty much the entire midwest so it can gerrymander again. Even a neutral redistricting environment will leave them fucked because they will lose about 20 seats there. |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:15 AM Author: garnet diverse skinny woman Totally agree. The fact that fucking Hillary won Cobb and Gwinnett counties in Georgia was absolutely stunning and should send chills down the GOP's spine. Trump is anathema with not just minorities but college whites, even in the South. The GOP is fucked in 2018 and 2020. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915162) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:20 AM Author: lake cheese-eating theater stage they are really fucked after 2020.
redistricting is going to be horrible for them for 2 main reasons:
1) they will lose most of their gerrymanders. they already lost VA, NJ based on the governor's races. they already lost PA because they lost the Supreme Court elections there and the court immediately took up gerrymandering, they will also probably lose a handful of governors races in the next year or two. This will cost them at least 2 dozen seats right there.
2) another huge, but not mentioned factor... rural population decay. right now a significant number of GOP congressional districts have lost population. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of DEM districts have gained significant population. This means that the GOP is currently overrepresented in the house. In 2020, when the census forces a new round of redistricting, DEM districts will have to be cut up, putting more DEMS in more districts. Republican districts will have to take in more people. This means rural portions of a state that once held two districts (notably in North Carolina and Virginia) will only hold one.
LJL |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:26 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping yeah, lol @ the idea that it's a blue state vs. red state issue. those "Bush country" maps from 2004 had the right idea, but wrong message. there are tons of counties that vote GOP, because they're rural- but it's the urban areas that vote Dem, and they're the ones that are growing.
it's gonna be country vs. city for the foreseeable future |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:57 AM Author: lake cheese-eating theater stage yes, basically how close you are to a major metro area is 90% of what determines your vote. If you look at the Virginia results the Democrat margins grow bigger and bigger the closer you get to Washington. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915341) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:43 AM Author: garnet diverse skinny woman The GOP needs to win back the suburbs. They've always lost the big cities, but since Bill Clinton's re-alignment of white suburban voters, GOP has struggled in POTUS elections. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915266) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:48 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business GOP lost two potus elections in predictable cycles? thats your struggle? lol GW crushed suburban voters? I hate contrarian faggots like you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915297) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:55 AM Author: insanely creepy odious affirmative action gaping GW narrowly won in 2000 (which was a fairly predictable cycle) and won in '04 because of the war (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915332) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:58 AM Author: Tan lodge sweet tailpipe How are Trump and Bannon doing in the suburbs? Weird that the GC corpcon, chamber of commerce poster boy GOP candidates do better in the suburbs than the guys whose signature policy achievement will be getting rid of the mortgage interest deduction. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915342) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:58 AM Author: flirting coldplay fan site Bush barely won in 2000 and 2004; his electoral vote victory was very weak. Before Clinton's 1992 re-alignment, GOP crushed in the suburbs.
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Date: December 14th, 2017 2:59 AM Author: lake cheese-eating theater stage what's your point? GW's last election was 13 years ago.
the GOP is obviously declining fast in suburbs, particularly heavily populated ones. That's why they lost Virginia badly this year despite the state not having a major city in it. |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:01 AM Author: garnet diverse skinny woman yeah that's my point. GOP is only strong in areas of declining populations. unless it wins back the suburbs, it's fucked. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915355) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:04 AM Author: lake cheese-eating theater stage yeah I know, I am agreeing with you and disagreeing with the other guy.
also, the term "suburbs" is very broad and encompasses a huge array of population centers.
The GOP's numbers are propped up by "suburbs" which are in a lot of cases exurbs or small townships outside of decaying cities in the midwest. If you look at large suburban areas, particularly growing ones like the outskirts of Washington, DC or the suburbs of Phoenix or Atlanta... the GOP vote share is declining fast. |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:06 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business i love that shitlibs think this way (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915371) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:15 AM Author: Beta Stock Car Pit (coming from a guy who backed religious Tea Party candidates over candidates actually popular with urban/suburban voters like Charlie Crist) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915412) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:02 AM Author: Tan lodge sweet tailpipe Suburbs are also becoming denser and more urbanized. Even in red states desirable suburbs are all doing the “walkable, street level retail” planning concepts. It’s a huge cultural shift driving in a third tier city from the inner ring suburbs to 20 minutes further out of the city. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915358) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:00 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business whoa nite crew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915352) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:03 AM Author: Learning disabled garrison JJC is poasting in this thread under 2 accts (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915359) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 3:07 AM Author: geriatric fantasy-prone place of business I'm out of my element (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34915374) |
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Date: December 14th, 2017 1:46 PM Author: garnet diverse skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3827522&forum_id=2#34918604) |