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How should someone pick their first mutual fund or ETF to invest in?
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Date: December 17th, 2017 6:47 PM Author: wonderful nursing home potus It's basically an ocean of information. Outside of expenses and historical returns, how the fuck should this be evaluated? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34943961) |
Date: December 17th, 2017 6:49 PM Author: Milky gunner your strong default should be a boring well diversified index fund portfolio. the vanguard target retirement series of funds are a good start. if you have a large amount of money to invest, you can approximate the target allocations of the retirement funds with either etfs or mutual funds.
in general, if you're young, a reasonable starting portfolio would be 65% total us stock market, 35% total international stock market (eg vti and veu). |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 6:50 PM Author: Maize adventurous crackhouse Is now even a good time to be buying (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34943991) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 6:54 PM Author: Milky gunner valuations are high relative to historical standards, but timing the market is hard. a huge mistake is sitting in cash waiting for a dip. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944015) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 6:56 PM Author: charcoal multi-billionaire Why shouldn’t I buy fit on margin ?assume I will monitor it like a hawk and a.m. end am an experienced trader (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944030) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:06 PM Author: overrated galvanic theater legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944092) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:09 PM Author: wonderful nursing home potus ty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944103) |
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Date: September 17th, 2018 12:51 AM Author: Insecure trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#36823358) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 6:52 PM Author: bateful know-it-all parlour prole You pretend that you are buying the entire business. For example, would you be willing to pay $22.6 trillion to buy all S&P 500 firms in their entirety?
E.g. if you are buying a home as a rental property, the main things to consider are 1) price, 2) how much cash does it throw off, 3) how long will it generate those cash flows, and can they grow. You just think about a stock the same way.
IMO you should buy VBR, VFH
For individual stocks: BOFI, INBK, AER, ALLY |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 6:58 PM Author: Swollen up-to-no-good stead Why are you forcememing these dumbass stock pics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944045) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:00 PM Author: bateful know-it-all parlour prole What is dumb about these picks?
He is about to buy an index fund at the top (25 P/E) and get stomped. |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:01 PM Author: stimulating menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944068) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:03 PM Author: bateful know-it-all parlour prole Yo, the earnings yield of the market is 4%. The earnings growth rate is 7-8%.
Most optimistic case, long term, is that the P/E stays constant. Then potentially you could make 7-8 percent a year. If the multiple goes down (as it should in a higher rate environment) you can get clobbered buying something like VTI or VOO.
I'll bump this thread in a year or two |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:05 PM Author: Swollen up-to-no-good stead Please explain to me why your genius analysis is not already priced in. Thanks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944090) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:07 PM Author: bateful know-it-all parlour prole Because there is a TON of passive money that buys the market portfolio, regardless of price. Most of the investor money out there doesn't price anything in at all.
You have to find the best opportunities and buy a concentrated portfolio. |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:08 PM Author: Swollen up-to-no-good stead So the logical conclusion of your argument is buy any stock which has a projected growth rate greater than the average. Is this correct? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944100) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:10 PM Author: bateful know-it-all parlour prole No, you compare the growth rate with the price you pay. You also consider how long that growth can sustain itself for. You try to put a lower bound on the present value of the cash the firm throws off.
However, if you are just buying a huge blob like the S&P 500, the nitty gritty doesn't matter so much. The aggregate growth rate is fairly stable. It's almost obvious that an index fund investor is overpaying for that shitty 8% growth rate.
That's why economists are projecting millenials will earn 3-4% annual returns on their retirement portfolios. |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:16 PM Author: Milky gunner earnings growth for the aggregate S&P 500 is unlikely to be 7%-8% over a full market cycle. that would be insane. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944147) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 7:21 PM Author: bateful know-it-all parlour prole Historical growth rates. According to economist Robert Shiller, earnings per share on the S&P 500 grew at a 3.8% annualized rate between 1874 and 2004 (inflation-adjusted growth rate was 1.7%). Since 1980, the most bullish period in U.S. stock market history, real earnings growth according to Shiller, has been 2.6%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944175) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 8:03 PM Author: coiffed windowlicker You really can't argue with an XO investing masterman; they have this shit all figured out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944425) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 8:04 PM Author: Vibrant boiling water Index funds are flame. Do your own research and buy individual stocks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944431) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 8:13 PM Author: Maize adventurous crackhouse I’m fucking stupid, though. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944502) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 9:14 PM Author: insane headpube Incredibly dumb. 5% of stocks make 90% of gains long term. If you miss those 5% ur fucked (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944909) |
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Date: December 17th, 2017 9:16 PM Author: Milky gunner most people are too dumb to pick stocks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3832360&forum_id=2#34944920) |