https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-republican-rally-1516399468

By James Freeman

Jan. 19, 2018 5:04 p.m. ET

820 COMMENTS

The Republican tax cut is resulting in tangible benefits for workers more quickly than even many of its supporters expected. Bolstering an already-improving U.S. economy, it is starting to exert an equally powerful influence on U.S. politics.

To be sure, President Donald Trump still suffers from low approval ratings. “Based on approval ratings one year into a first term, Trump is the most unpopular president since at least Harry Truman, ” notes Harry Enten of the website FiveThirtyEight today. But there are interesting trends in political polling data. Mr. Enten explains:

The anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration is Saturday, and he is ending his first year on an upswing. The FiveThirtyEight Trump job approval tracker puts his approval rating at about 40 percent — matching its high-water mark since his first few months in office. His disapproval rating is 55 percent. That’s not good, but it has markedly improved over the past few weeks.

Trump’s rise mirrors GOP fortunes on the generic congressional ballot, which now has the Democrats’ lead down to 8 percentage points. Again, that’s not a good number for Republicans, but it is greatly improved.

And the improvement has been rapid. RealClearPolitics pegs the current Democratic advantage at 8.5 points, but that’s down from a 13-point edge as recently as late December.

A New York Times report this week suggests more room for GOP improvement in public opinion surveys:

The tax overhaul that Mr. Trump signed into law just before Christmas remains relatively unpopular and highly polarizing, according to a new poll conducted for The New York Times by SurveyMonkey. But support for the law has grown significantly over the past month, and more Americans believe that they will receive a tax cut. Forty-six percent of Americans strongly or somewhat approved of the law in early January, up from 37 percent when the bill was nearing passage in December.

The reason there is more room for improvement in Republican political fortunes is that according to the Times, most survey respondents still don’t believe they’re getting a tax cut. In fact, almost all of them are. As this reality becomes manifest in paychecks this winter, there’s no reason to think the signature Republican legislative achievement of the 115th Congress won’t become even more popular.

As for the President who signed that legislation into law, ratings on a critical question are already on the rise. Mr. Trump remains underwater on the general question of his handling of the presidency, with a majority in virtually every poll expressing disapproval. But he is showing increasing strength on the issue of the economy, which just happens to be the issue that frequently decides elections.

This week, the Economist/YouGov survey shows him ten points above water, with 49% approving of his handling of the economy compared to only 39% who disapprove. Meanwhile the latest Harvard/Harris poll, released today, also shows a Trump bump on this issue despite general voter disapproval of his job performance:

Despite an uptick in optimism over the economy, the President’s approval has only marginally improved, continuing to hover on the lower end of the range at 42% job approval and 58% disapproval. However, in January the President received his highest rating for stimulating jobs and handling the economy, both at 54% approval.

By passing pro-growth tax reform, Republicans have given themselves more than a puncher’s chance of holding their congressional majorities. This will require bucking history, which usually shows a rough year for the President’s party in the first mid-term of his presidency. For example, in 1982, during President Ronald Reagan’s second year in office, Republicans lost 26 seats in the House. In 1994, Bill Clinton watched his Democratic colleagues lose 52 House seats. In 2010, during year two of Barack Obama’s tenure, the Democrats lost 63 seats.

Why should 2018 be any different? When lawmakers enacted the Reagan tax cuts in 1981, Republicans blundered by agreeing to delay the implementation of many provisions. Without the immediate pro-growth boost, the U.S. economy shrank by nearly 2% in 1982 and voters registered their displeasure. In 1994 and 2010, voters were angry over government attempts (successful in 2010) to exert greater control over their health care. The current GOP majority hasn’t made such mistakes. Pro-growth policy, taking immediate effect, is becoming more popular.

Today the Federal Reserve Bank of New York affirmed its estimate of 3.9% economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, and is now forecasting another quarter above 3% in the first three months of 2018. That’s a good economic environment in any era, and a stark contrast to the slow growth of the Obama years. Game on.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3867152&forum_id=2#35208415)