NXPI: risk-free oafish 3% spread
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Poast new message in this thread
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Date: March 7th, 2018 5:00 PM Author: diverse bawdyhouse roast beef
2014
Blocked Seagate/Samsung in 2011
Western Digital / Hitachi in 2012
Blocked a shipping co merger in 2014
You could make the same argument for CFIUS - its doing unprecedented shit with Broadcom / Qualcomm
The other reason there is a spread is if Broadcom wins the proxy fight for QCOM then steps away from NXPI bid
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35555776) |
Date: March 22nd, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Opaque Cumskin
Approaching 6% now lmao
Even if China plays hardball I don't see them fighting a trade war via mofcom. Arbs are literal faggots always and forever.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35660984) |
Date: April 4th, 2018 11:02 AM Author: Opaque Cumskin
This is probably the best stock you could possibly buy right now
If deal goes through (it almost certainly will): you make 10% in <1 month
If deal gets blocked by China (it almost certainly won't): stock trades down initially and then rips higher when the big boys snap it up from the faggot arbs
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35760885) |
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Date: April 11th, 2018 10:59 AM Author: Opaque Cumskin
That Qualcomm will ultimately accede to Mofcom's ask (whatever it ends up being) because
1) Qualcomm does so much business in China and has to remain in their good graces
2) Qualcomm is a dead dog without NXPI and they know it (despite being dumb stupid stubborn faggots)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815422) |
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Date: April 11th, 2018 11:36 AM Author: Opaque Cumskin
That was a hypothetical example. IDK what the exact %s are but it's actually not too much different from what I stated.
But you can look at history, other worldwide approvals, and just plain logic to see that there is an overwhelming probability China approves this. Not only that, even if the deal did break, it's very likely the stock would trade higher from here after an initial shakeout. The only reason it's as low as it is is that arbs took way too much risk in this name and are feeling the pain. It's a market structure issue.
Another way of putting this is the efficient market theory is horseshit.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35815694) |
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Date: April 16th, 2018 11:56 AM Author: diverse bawdyhouse roast beef
I don't want to be an asshole but on March 7 when you initially wrote your OP, the stock was trading at $124, for a risk free oafish spread of 3%
It is now sub 113, for an 11% spread. You've lost 8% in a risk free trade that would have gotten you 3% in gains
Now obviously the calculus for new money is different at $113. You're looking at a risk free oafish spread of 11%. That seems interesting as the downside from here seems limited for NXPI on a standalone basis as at $113 it trades at sub 14x P/E
I'm not a merger arb guy but my friends in the space tell me it is all about entry combined with risk/reward. A 3% reward wasn't sufficient, even with signficant leverage boosting returns
Imagine being 10:1 levered trying to squeeze out a 30% return on that 3% spread. The move down would have blown you up. At 10:1 leverage on that 11% spread would get you a 110% return - that sounds a lot sexier
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35851000) |
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Date: April 20th, 2018 11:01 AM Author: Saffron pit patrolman
Bought a position just now around 105.70.
If buyout goes through looks like it will be about 20% gain by July.
If not, I like th stock anyways. And they will be owed 2b I believe.
Seems like a calculated, sensible risk here.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881173)
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Date: April 20th, 2018 11:30 AM Author: Scarlet infuriating foreskin
When your doing arbs - the liquidations and the take privates are the lowest risk - reg agency stuff like MOFCOM or local Utility Comissions or Antitrust can get crazy -
UNLESS OF COURSE the company as a stand alone is a high quality asset worth owning
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35881378) |
Date: April 26th, 2018 10:38 AM Author: Opaque Cumskin
Finally going up today jfc
There is still a fucking absurd spread in this that is totally unjustified by the fundamentals
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#35923849) |
Date: May 17th, 2018 9:02 AM Author: Opaque Cumskin
ATTN: FAGGOTS
Mofcom just approved their second deal this week. They're speeding things along again. There's still a lot of money left in this oafish spread!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36067746) |
Date: July 25th, 2018 4:15 PM Author: heady lodge national security agency
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/qualcomm-is-preparing-to-give-up-on-nxp.html
Qualcomm will terminate deal to buy NXP at end of day
Qualcomm is planning to move forward with share buybacks instead of buying NXP.
Qualcomm isn't counting on Chinese regulators to rule in favor of its NXP deal.
Qualcomm CEO Steve Mollenkopf will address his company's share buyback plans during today's conference call.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495185) |
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Date: July 25th, 2018 4:17 PM Author: diverse bawdyhouse roast beef
Date: March 7th, 2018 4:26 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Daring Duck of Mystery, Champion of Right)
Wait until Mofcom blocks the deal
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36495200)
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Date: July 26th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: diverse bawdyhouse roast beef
March 7 stock was at $124. Closed today at $92.81
That's a 25% loss in 4.5 months. Friends don't let friends do merger arbitrage
For what it's worth, I just nibbled on it at $92.50
I think they do $8 of EPS in 2019. 15x that is a $120 stock.
Downside they'll do $7 and get 12x so $84
30% upside / 10% downside for a 3:1 risk/reward
Clear catalysts upcoming: $5B in buybacks funded in part by the QCOM breakup fee + an analyst day. Activist investors could also come in given management has been on the beach for the past 2 years
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3912314&forum_id=2#36502603) |
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