Date: March 17th, 2018 11:52 AM
Author: Domesticated Idea He Suggested Spot
This is a guy I know from UG:
Friend: "I need someone to explain something to me about basketball brackets: We objectively know which team is most likely to win each game. So why are everyone's brackets different?"
Guy: "Yeah, but it's nights like today (the first time EVER that a #16 has beaten a #1) that explains why people pick worse teams to win."
Friend: "I get why people root for underdogs and why it's fun to watch them win, but the purpose of brackets as I understand it seems to be to get as many of the games right as you can. So why would any of them differ?"
Guy: " If you look at individual games and matchups, you can see that even if a team is ranked higher, they may be at a disadvantage to the less-ranked team. The ranking system isn't always correct, and just using my knowledge of basketball as well as having watched a lot of teams play, I correctly predicted some upsets and underdog wins."
Friend: "Are you saying that the better team does not win more often?"
Guy: "All else being equal, the better team does win more often. For any given game, not everyone agrees on when all else is equal or who the better team is. Also, some people fill out their brackets based on criteria other than who they think is most likely to win."
Friend: "Thanks. That's what I was missing. I thought it was like placing a bet, and the point was to win. But you're saying it's more like an expression of hope and preference?"
Guy2: "it is the same is as picking countries that will win what ever challenge in the current space race"
Friend: "But as far as I'm aware, there is no objective numerical way to assign a probability to any country winning a space race. There is an agreed way to assign win probabilities in basketball."
Friend wants to be an astronaut btw.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3921293&forum_id=2#35625615)