\
  The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
BackRefresh Options Favorite

Should i hold ~10% bonds in my long term portfolio? or fuck bonds

...
sickened meetinghouse
  04/19/18
Obvious answer is depends on your goals / situation 10% s...
bateful fat ankles masturbator
  04/19/18
JFC, you only live once. Reach for the stars, man. Bonds, l...
Spruce Lay Persian
  04/19/18
...
Electric church
  04/19/18
...
Judgmental parlour jew
  04/19/18
I know plenty of serious-minded investors in their 20s, 30s,...
avocado cracking stage
  04/19/18
Cr. Plus if you have access to the TSP the g fund is money
multi-colored magical pervert factory reset button
  04/19/18
i was waiting for this to turn into a sci fi epic, but yeah ...
sickened meetinghouse
  04/19/18
i'll call bullshit for a more important reason the one year...
thirsty irate karate
  04/19/18
Psychological boost? Fuck are you talking about?
razzmatazz stead kitty cat
  04/19/18
you don't think there is a psychological component to invest...
thirsty irate karate
  04/19/18
im here for the risk adjusted returns. i get my feel goods ...
violent beady-eyed windowlicker
  04/19/18
then have the branch op cite his work i can tell you a few ...
thirsty irate karate
  04/19/18
...
sickened meetinghouse
  04/19/18
I do 10% bonds 90% stocks. Come at me, bros.
Beta Multi-billionaire Plaza
  04/19/18
That’s what I do. I also place retarded bets in the distres...
Light outnumbered newt menage
  04/19/18
You should have your age in bonds, i.e., 35 percent treasuri...
Light outnumbered newt menage
  04/19/18
...
sickened meetinghouse
  04/19/18
so 30 year olds should have 30% in fixed income? despite ~35...
bateful fat ankles masturbator
  04/19/18
Did you miss the part where I am a time traveller?
Light outnumbered newt menage
  04/19/18
lmao yes. i read the first sentence and became unhinged
bateful fat ankles masturbator
  04/19/18
im 30 and there's no way id put 30% in fixed income I just g...
avocado cracking stage
  04/19/18
180. Gonna do this tonight.
Light outnumbered newt menage
  04/19/18
...
avocado cracking stage
  04/19/18
...
Flesh Crawly Background Story
  04/19/18
Your post up top is super cr. But here...buying options on ...
Galvanic chapel juggernaut
  04/19/18
i just dont see the big risk; there is going to be some winn...
avocado cracking stage
  04/19/18
Brother, you may be autistic.
Light outnumbered newt menage
  04/19/18
just as likely your pay will fall off a cliff and youll be u...
Insanely Creepy Garrison Fortuitous Meteor
  04/19/18
Fortuitous cliff
Light outnumbered newt menage
  04/19/18
Yes but purchase actual bonds. Not a bond fund etf whose va...
exciting hissy fit indian lodge
  04/19/18
Extreme TCR
comical violent tattoo
  04/19/18
Wait what? The value and price of a bond absolutely changes ...
bateful fat ankles masturbator
  04/19/18
...
Duck-like forum goal in life
  04/19/18
explain
sickened meetinghouse
  04/19/18
Here’s what I think he means (but i hope not for his sake): ...
bateful fat ankles masturbator
  04/19/18
explain, shitlib
infuriating stain
  04/19/18
I’m at about 5% bonds, half US and half international. I’m a...
Cheese-eating bossy market
  04/19/18
I’m 100% equities but I have my son’s UTMA in some high yiel...
Up-to-no-good antidepressant drug theater stage
  04/19/18
bonds are ok if you regularly need access to cash for a smal...
Judgmental parlour jew
  04/19/18
Sounds like consensus is no
sickened meetinghouse
  04/20/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 11:49 AM
Author: sickened meetinghouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874169)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 11:51 AM
Author: bateful fat ankles masturbator

Obvious answer is depends on your goals / situation

10% sounds like some BB rated junk. I’d probably just do equities instead for dat upside.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874187)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 11:53 AM
Author: Spruce Lay Persian

JFC, you only live once. Reach for the stars, man. Bonds, lmao

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874196)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:11 PM
Author: Electric church



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875875)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 8:44 PM
Author: Judgmental parlour jew



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877691)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 11:58 AM
Author: avocado cracking stage

I know plenty of serious-minded investors in their 20s, 30s, 40s who remain all equity (with subclass diversification) on a rocket-fuel theory of just trying to juice returns and endorsing the view that equity is always going to outperform bonds as long as you have a significantly long time horizon. But there is an argument from modern portfolio theory that having a small component of your portfolio invested in bonds will increase your long-run risk adjusted return (and potentially your long-run absolute return) as long as you engage in routine (at least annual and ideally quarterly) portfolio rebalancing. The argument in favor can get technical but the gist of it is that having a bond component shelters you during periods of market downturns and then enables you to rebalance into equities with depressed prices / or conversely exit equities that are overheated. Some of this argument turns on access to leverage but there's a case for it even if you're just doing straight buying and selling.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874227)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:00 PM
Author: multi-colored magical pervert factory reset button

Cr. Plus if you have access to the TSP the g fund is money

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874242)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: sickened meetinghouse

i was waiting for this to turn into a sci fi epic, but yeah ive generally done 10% in bonds based on similar advice i got when i started putting money into the market

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874250)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:25 PM
Author: thirsty irate karate

i'll call bullshit for a more important reason

the one year out of ten where you 'win' because you only had 90% of your holdings get slammed by a downturn does not result in enough of a psychological boost to make up for the other 9 years where you weren't maximizing your gains.

i'll call bullshit for a less supportable reason, too. i don't believe the premise is true in most situations, but that's just a hunch

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875958)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:56 PM
Author: razzmatazz stead kitty cat

Psychological boost? Fuck are you talking about?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876125)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 4:03 PM
Author: thirsty irate karate

you don't think there is a psychological component to investing? you're incredibly naïve if you argue otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876167)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 4:37 PM
Author: violent beady-eyed windowlicker

im here for the risk adjusted returns. i get my feel goods elsewhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876373)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 6:05 PM
Author: thirsty irate karate

then have the branch op cite his work

i can tell you a few reasons why it is bullshit just looking at his explanation, but since you're such a cold hearted pragmatist investor, i'm sure you already see them

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876944)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:37 PM
Author: sickened meetinghouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874506)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:38 PM
Author: Beta Multi-billionaire Plaza

I do 10% bonds 90% stocks. Come at me, bros.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874515)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:47 PM
Author: Light outnumbered newt menage

That’s what I do. I also place retarded bets in the distressed high yield space .

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874575)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:43 PM
Author: Light outnumbered newt menage

You should have your age in bonds, i.e., 35 percent treasuries and 65 percent large cap blue chips, if you are 35 years old. I’m time traveling from 1985, btw.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874550)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:45 PM
Author: sickened meetinghouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874565)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:46 PM
Author: bateful fat ankles masturbator

so 30 year olds should have 30% in fixed income? despite ~35 more years of increasing pay ahead of them? regardless of 401k contributions? this can’t be right for someone with a reasonable risk tolerance

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874566)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM
Author: Light outnumbered newt menage

Did you miss the part where I am a time traveller?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874579)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM
Author: bateful fat ankles masturbator

lmao yes. i read the first sentence and became unhinged

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874584)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM
Author: avocado cracking stage

im 30 and there's no way id put 30% in fixed income I just got a second mortgage on our house I didn't tell my wife but it's going to pay off so it doesn't matter and anyway I am INVESTING on heavy margin in options im doing the "random walk" approach which is u just randomly pick a bunch of different options and the theory is that it just pays off because ull have some winners and some losers but the winners will be bigger than the losers

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874586)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:51 PM
Author: Light outnumbered newt menage

180. Gonna do this tonight.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874609)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:55 PM
Author: avocado cracking stage



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874644)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:57 PM
Author: Flesh Crawly Background Story



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874657)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:10 PM
Author: Galvanic chapel juggernaut

Your post up top is super cr. But here...buying options on margin? Brother i hope it works out for you, but this sounds like a terrible idea. “Random walk” refers to equities not options on equities

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875862)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:43 PM
Author: avocado cracking stage

i just dont see the big risk; there is going to be some winners and some losers but they say a monkey throwing darts can beat the average mutual fund so i should be able to pick things at random and win; its not just on margin its this thing they call "EXTREME MARGIN" that they're offering through this italian platform that one of the people in my office hooked me up with--im a secretary in biglaw--so you can borrow up to 90% of the value so ive been able to buy a ton of options

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876075)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:49 PM
Author: Light outnumbered newt menage

Brother, you may be autistic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876102)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:52 PM
Author: Insanely Creepy Garrison Fortuitous Meteor

just as likely your pay will fall off a cliff and youll be unemployable than youll have increasing pay for 35 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874623)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 12:56 PM
Author: Light outnumbered newt menage

Fortuitous cliff

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874648)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 3:57 PM
Author: exciting hissy fit indian lodge

Yes but purchase actual bonds. Not a bond fund etf whose value jumps up and down.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876132)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:07 PM
Author: comical violent tattoo

Extreme TCR

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876566)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:11 PM
Author: bateful fat ankles masturbator

Wait what? The value and price of a bond absolutely changes even if you hold them directly.

This is like the most nonsensical shit I’ve ever heard.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876611)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 6:07 PM
Author: Duck-like forum goal in life



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876960)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:16 PM
Author: sickened meetinghouse

explain

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876662)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:22 PM
Author: bateful fat ankles masturbator

Here’s what I think he means (but i hope not for his sake):

ETFs are based on the prices of the underlying bonds so the etf price will fluctuate if say interest rates go up or the issuers have a higher chance of insolvency (causing the underlying bond prices to drop)

But if you just hold the bonds you’ll still get the same nominal interest and principal payment regardless of what happens to the bond price. So he’s ignoring the impact of higher interest rates on the NPV of the coupon/principal payments or any changes to the chance the issuer goes bankrupt and you end up with much less than you expect

If you said this in an undergrad finance class I honestly think the professor might beat you to death on the spot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876696)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 5:17 PM
Author: infuriating stain

explain, shitlib

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876665)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 8:08 PM
Author: Cheese-eating bossy market

I’m at about 5% bonds, half US and half international. I’m also about 40% in investment real estate though (in equity terms;150% with leverage) and I think that’s the more significant hedge/diversification.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877498)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 8:14 PM
Author: Up-to-no-good antidepressant drug theater stage

I’m 100% equities but I have my son’s UTMA in some high yield corporate junk bond index fund since I’m just trying to maximize yield. I see no reason to be in bonds if you have no plans to pull any money out.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877535)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2018 8:42 PM
Author: Judgmental parlour jew

bonds are ok if you regularly need access to cash for a small business and just need a place to store money

they also might be useful for stabilizing a margin account if you're writing a ton of puts on SP500 minis or some other more exotic strategy

but otherwise, i wouldn't use them if you're young and/or have other bond-like instruments

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877683)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2018 10:37 AM
Author: sickened meetinghouse

Sounds like consensus is no

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35880986)