Baseball statmos, explain "leverage" to me please.
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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:34 PM Author: diverse station
not by win probability added
ex: it’s pretty likely that the opposing team will score at least three runs. if you score one run in the top of the first the other team still has 27 outs to score more runs and they’ll probably score a few during that time. so will your team but at the margin that run in the first inning doesn’t contribute as much to the probability of winning because of all of the possible ways that the game could turn out during those remaining 27 outs. many opportunities left for them to score and for your team to score more.
if it’s 0-0 in the ninth and you score a run the opposing team only has three more outs to score a run. fewer possible outcomes and fewer pathways to a win for the opponent. so that run contributes more to win probability.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108844) |
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