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Baseball statmos, explain "leverage" to me please.

How is there more leverage in a 2-0 game in the 9th versus a...
Crawly Fighting Tanning Salon Mexican
  05/22/18
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/li/
razzle-dazzle rehab
  05/22/18
possible number of events from the ninth inning on is very l...
diverse station
  05/22/18
I don't see what particular innings have to do with anything...
Crawly Fighting Tanning Salon Mexican
  05/22/18
(Joe Morgan)
demanding base
  05/22/18
not by win probability added ex: it’s pretty likely that ...
diverse station
  05/22/18
In your 0-0 game in the 9th example, I still don't see why a...
Crawly Fighting Tanning Salon Mexican
  05/22/18
if you score a run in the first the most likely outcome is y...
diverse station
  05/22/18
Right. The win probability changes more (from before you sc...
Sapphire Temple Elastic Band
  05/22/18
depends on your criteria. people don’t really take this “clu...
diverse station
  05/22/18
Just do teh fulcrum, bro.
Erotic sandwich
  05/22/18
give a baseball player a lever and a place to stand and he c...
provocative center dopamine
  05/22/18
...
jade office mental disorder
  05/22/18
...
charismatic ruby pistol
  05/22/18


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Date: May 22nd, 2018 9:59 PM
Author: Crawly Fighting Tanning Salon Mexican

How is there more leverage in a 2-0 game in the 9th versus a 0-0 game in the first?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108550)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:02 PM
Author: razzle-dazzle rehab

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/li/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108576)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:06 PM
Author: diverse station

possible number of events from the ninth inning on is very low so each out and each run scored contributes more to the probability of winning. fewer chances for opposing team to come back.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108605)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:29 PM
Author: Crawly Fighting Tanning Salon Mexican

I don't see what particular innings have to do with anything. A run in the first is worth the same as a run in the ninth.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108815)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:30 PM
Author: demanding base

(Joe Morgan)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108818)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:34 PM
Author: diverse station

not by win probability added

ex: it’s pretty likely that the opposing team will score at least three runs. if you score one run in the top of the first the other team still has 27 outs to score more runs and they’ll probably score a few during that time. so will your team but at the margin that run in the first inning doesn’t contribute as much to the probability of winning because of all of the possible ways that the game could turn out during those remaining 27 outs. many opportunities left for them to score and for your team to score more.

if it’s 0-0 in the ninth and you score a run the opposing team only has three more outs to score a run. fewer possible outcomes and fewer pathways to a win for the opponent. so that run contributes more to win probability.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108844)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:37 PM
Author: Crawly Fighting Tanning Salon Mexican

In your 0-0 game in the 9th example, I still don't see why a home run doesn't add equal value in any inning. A home run makes your hypothetical game 1-0 in the ninth no matter when the home run was hit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108870)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:41 PM
Author: diverse station

if you score a run in the first the most likely outcome is your team winning by one but there is a huge distribution of almost equally likely outcomes, many with the other team winning. game could easily end 4-3, 4-5, etc because of the “time” left in the game and all of the shit that can happen before 27 outs are up. there is more time for the other team to come back and even if you didn’t score that run there was more time for your team to score more runs to make up for it.

if you score that run in the ninth the probability of outcomes other than the game ending 1-0, or with the other team winning at all, is much lower because the other team only has three outs left to do something. so the change in state from 0-0 to 1-0 is a much bigger change in win probability at that point.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108897)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 11:13 PM
Author: Sapphire Temple Elastic Band

Right. The win probability changes more (from before you score to after you score) when you score in the 9th compared to scoring in the first inning.

But still, I wouldn't say that this run is more "valuable" than the run in the first inning. Both contribute equally.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36109145)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 11:21 PM
Author: diverse station

depends on your criteria. people don’t really take this “clutch” / state-dependent stuff into account for individual stats / player value but if your criteria is increasing the chances of a win then the home run in the ninth is more valuable. in fact if there’s any real value to the saves statistic it’s that they (usually) represent relatively higher leverage outs achieved by the pitcher.

i guess you mean ex-post it doesn’t matter when the event happened for it to have contributed to the score. if you want to treat events as independent of context (which you can) then yeah you could say that about the “value” of an event.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36109210)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:08 PM
Author: Erotic sandwich

Just do teh fulcrum, bro.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108621)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:11 PM
Author: provocative center dopamine

give a baseball player a lever and a place to stand and he can hit home runs like barry bonds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108651)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:12 PM
Author: jade office mental disorder



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108655)



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Date: May 22nd, 2018 10:31 PM
Author: charismatic ruby pistol



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3984164&forum_id=2#36108823)