The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Reminder: the Republican Party is still on the verge of total collapse nationall
Poast new message in this thread
Date: June 22nd, 2018 10:54 AM Author: motley abode clown For example, California used to be a republican state before massive illegal immigration turned it permanently blue. Doesn't matter the issue or the person (sorry Arnold), people are generally voting tribally and the state is blue no matter what. That process is happening throughout the southwest now - Arizona and Nevada and New Mexico are all teetering - and is in the process of turning Texas purple. And these cynical libs know how close it is to resulting in a permanent Democrat leadership in national elections : trump lost the national vote by millions to Hillary , so did McCain and Romney in their elections. The electoral college and in-state gerrymandering that republicans use to their benefit only work to a certain extent.
Republicans control the presidency and have a majority in congress, and I've never thought they were closer to total collapse than they are now. That's not to say trump won't win 2020 and republicans in congress won't win 2018, they might, but the demographic trends and voting patterns are extremely clear |
 |
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:56 AM Author: Balding Mad-dog Skullcap Stage So reverse these sick trends! Stop wrong immigration and breeding. And get 'Latinoes' to join Republicans. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290514) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:58 PM Author: Fear-inspiring depressive “Latinoes” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293956) |
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:01 AM Author: motley abode clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290118) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:02 AM Author: Lascivious gaped sound barrier Lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290126) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:06 AM Author: motley abode clown Trumptards who think they can sway tribally based minorities with a strong economy are deluding themselves. The only hope they have is radical action on immigration which will necessitate extreme clashes with crazy open borders libs . There is no other way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290149) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:07 AM Author: Lascivious gaped sound barrier Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290151) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 7:53 PM Author: bull headed factory reset button translation=there is no hope (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293576) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:17 PM Author: at-the-ready tattoo we're doing radical and strong and possibly very brutal but necessary actions at a faster and faster pace, believe me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293712) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:21 PM Author: motley abode clown we've done literally nothing worthwhile on immigration so far (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293734) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:22 PM Author: at-the-ready tattoo travel ban, increased enforcement, MS 13 thugs out of our communities, ending DACA, zero tolerance (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293743) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:24 PM Author: motley abode clown travel ban is basically nothing ("EXTREME VETTING! oooohh!!!! help, they're checking my social media account!"), illegal immigration has surged 150%+ year over year from last year, nothing has changed on MS13, DACA isn't ended because the courts have forced its continuation, zero tolerance doesn't mean anything as far as i can see
you don't seem to realize the kind of *real* radical action that is needed to prevent republican demographic failure |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:43 PM Author: at-the-ready tattoo some families in San Bernadino disagree that extreme vetting is nothing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293867) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:57 PM Author: wine misanthropic main people brunch nibbling around the edges won't work given the scale of our problems. this is like someone millions of dollars in debt who finds 83 cents in change in the couch cushions and buys a few gumballs from a vending machine. that gum isn't nothing, but it's also not much. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293951) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:59 PM Author: motley abode clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293958) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:42 AM Author: Crystalline Talented Scourge Upon The Earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290383) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:52 AM Author: thriller poppy kitty crackhouse Trump lost the popular vote ONLY because of California, not if you look at the rest of the country. By that same metric Obama had gaped Romney in 2012.
Trump's loss in NV was pretty narrow and NM has been almost completely blue since the 90s, though if you parse out the vote for Gary Johnson, Trump came fairly close there as well. |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 12:00 PM Author: Balding Mad-dog Skullcap Stage California CHEATED massively, something that must be a priority to stop in 2018 and 2020. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290547) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 2:51 PM Author: grizzly comical senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36291814) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 12:00 PM Author: aggressive principal's office gaping true but the thing is they dont care about rule of law or democracy anymore, so they will become more and more authoritarian and do whatever the fuck they want to win such as using Russia to win, gerrymandering, Voter ID laws or straight out voter fraud... this will happen more and more because cumskins dont care abt democracy no more (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290546) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 2:48 PM Author: aphrodisiac translucent double fault Democracy doesn't work when there is zero ideological overlap between tribes But lol no |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 12:07 PM Author: Tantric Liquid Oxygen Ratface for example, california....
*stops reading* |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 12:44 PM Author: marvelous azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36290877) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 12:43 PM Author: burgundy jew California was trending blue because of the post-Cold War military reduction and with the decline of the aerospace industry. Republicans threw gasoline on the fire with their race-baiting prop 187. It worked in the short-term for Pete Wilson but fucked them for at least a generation there.
If only there was some modern parallel ... |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 2:51 PM Author: Pearl confused point roast beef LMAO anybody who blames prop 187 for permanently turning California blue is hopelessly stupid. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36291810) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 2:52 PM Author: frisky turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36291817) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 2:57 PM Author: grizzly comical senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36291836) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 3:00 PM Author: motley abode clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36291848) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 3:01 PM Author: marvelous azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36291850) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 7:47 PM Author: burgundy jew https://www.cato.org/blog/proposition-187-turned-california-blue (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293547) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 7:50 PM Author: Pearl confused point roast beef Oh, well if Alex Nowrasteh says so. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293562) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 7:55 PM Author: burgundy jew The data cannot be denied. It does not matter who says it.
Y'all are living on a 2-year coke binge. When the party is over and the lights come on, you're fucked. Hope it was fun.
Nice wall faggots. |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 7:57 PM Author: frisky turdskin lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293599) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:03 PM Author: grizzly comical senate (suicide death cultist praying for the rapture) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293634) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:04 PM Author: burgundy jew Dems are the rapture? You're such a histrionic little bitch. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293639) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:40 PM Author: grizzly comical senate how fucking dumb are you jfc (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293852) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:48 PM Author: burgundy jew Is this an argument? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293898) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:24 PM Author: Pearl confused point roast beef Of course it can be denied. Nowrasteh isn't that smart and there are a ton of holes in his argument.
-He simply assumes the massive growth in California's Hispanic vote from 1994 through the early 2000s was entirely due to the "activation" of Hispanics by 187, and they subsequently voted Democratic because of that. He offers no serious evidence for this. -He assumes a massive stickiness to California Hispanics' behavior after a single referendum, without explaining why exactly we should do so. -His Texas/California comparison is weak as shit. In 1994, Bush runs on a pro-immigration message and does badly with Hispanics. In 1998 he runs on the same thing but does way better. Maybe he was just a more popular candidate! And of course, if you actually check the electoral results, it's clear that Bush was just more popular across the board in 1998. The same can easily be said for California's 1998 election, where the Hispanic vote was way more Democratic in part because the ENTIRE vote was way more Democratic. -In Figure 5, he tries to blame Prop 187 for greater Democratic presidential success in California, but a non-retard looking at the chart would immediately notice the Democratic surge came in 1992, before Prop 187. -In Figure 6, he alleges that Hispanics became more Democratic because of Wilson's anti-immigration rhetoric...yet Hispanics simply lurched up in Democratic affiliation at the exact same time as white people. Also, there isn't a big increase in Democratic affiliation in 1994, even though that was the year the GOP supposedly "lost" California through Prop 187. Wouldn't there be a more noticeable shift then, rather than a very gradual rise that might, say, reflect a transformation of the voter pool?
More on this, if you want to pay for it:
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-017-9400-1 |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:25 PM Author: motley abode clown his ass will be sore for a week after this gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293762) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:48 PM Author: burgundy jew Nice piggyback. Remind me again, when is the IG report that matters? The next one or the one after that?
As to his points collectively, his argument is that a sudden and dramatic change happened in 1992 and continued and had nothing to do with race, a proxy for prop 187. A dumb point obviously.
Why then was there not swing back in in 2004, a GOP year?
Bottom line: W knew what he was doing and Texas is still GOP because of it while Wilson threw gas on an existing fire nd got fucked. Trump will do for Texas what Wilson did for California. Enjoy Senator Beto. |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:54 PM Author: Pearl confused point roast beef If Trump as president is able to swing Texas blue, why wasn't Bush as president able to swing California red? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293928) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 10:37 PM Author: burgundy jew 187. That's the fucking point. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36294380) |
|
Date: June 23rd, 2018 9:15 AM Author: Pearl confused point roast beef So 187 is a magical political force that just permanently controls the behavior of everybody in California, including California whites, even though half of California voters literally weren't even voting back in 1994 and even though no other political candidate or referendum shows such an effect.
That seems like a shoddy argument. |
|
Date: June 23rd, 2018 6:29 PM Author: marvelous azn Where do did the little guy scamper off to? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36297881) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:56 PM Author: wine misanthropic main people brunch texas is still GOP because texan whites vote a lot more GOP than do or did california whites. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293937) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 10:51 PM Author: burgundy jew And Hispanics vote a lot more GOP in Texas than California. Simultaneously, there was no prop 187 in Texas. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36294428) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 10:56 PM Author: bipolar base police squad there's not much evidence that hispanics in particular vote "a lot" more GOP than in california. in both states, the national GOP loses the hispanic vote quite decisively. texas is blessed by the fact that mexicans are lazy and don't vote, however. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36294444) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:57 PM Author: burgundy jew Agreed. Should that change, say through an inflammatory president, then the GOP is completely fucked. Or time + demographics will do the work. Hope it was fun. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36294781) |
|
Date: June 23rd, 2018 5:15 PM Author: Pearl confused point roast beef Lmao at weirdo freaks like you positively jizzing at the fall of America. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36297572) |
|
Date: June 23rd, 2018 7:25 PM Author: Mauve bawdyhouse boistinker unbelievably stupid hot take by this author, holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36298128) |
|
Date: June 23rd, 2018 5:05 PM Author: french voyeur state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36297519) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 2:55 PM Author: Disturbing Property Hissy Fit Have only won the popular vote twice in 30 years. 2 and 6 in that regard. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36291831) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 5:58 PM Author: motley abode clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293010) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 7:58 PM Author: wine misanthropic main people brunch the institutional GOP is still basically designed to serve the interests of the oligarch-class, even though many such oligarchs have already defected to the libs. that's why "conservative" leaders like paul ryan won't even touch something like e-verify, since it would impinge upon the ability of his sponsors in sectors like agribusiness to make as much profit as possible. as long as this is the case, the GOP will slowly get killed electorally, because it won't be able to attract enough white votes to offset the natural demographic advantage of the democrats. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293606) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 7:59 PM Author: motley abode clown this is accurate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293616) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:06 PM Author: wine misanthropic main people brunch i still think that populism IS the future. but the thing is, we're either going to have anti-white poorly-run venezuela-style populism (the democrats), or we're going to have nationalist populism (the GOP), but ONLY IF the GOP makes a populist pivot. it may be the case that the party is simply too "captured" to make this pivot, and populism will default to the dems, because they will be the only ones offering it post-trump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293644) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:10 PM Author: burgundy jew Or the moderate could make peace. Nobody who matters gives two fucks about abortion/gays/gun and socialism does not come to pass when the top tax rate goes from 36 to 39%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293660) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:14 PM Author: wine misanthropic main people brunch lol. i take dems at their word when they say they want to abolish ICE, pop open the border, abolish prisons, etc. they'll do all that and more once they have enough power. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293690) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:18 PM Author: Pearly Hunting Ground Meh, no populism with other devices. Race is by the the biggest indicator and only whites buck that trend. As the demographic scales tip they'll also increasingly vote as a monolithic bloc like other cohorts. Thats the lib gamble; they need to flood the country with new voters before this flip happens. Keep in mind, there were more whites that didn't vote than all of minorities that did vote. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293725) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:20 PM Author: wine misanthropic main people brunch it's more complex than that. whites vote en bloc when the other block is blacks specifically. mexicans lead to more division among whites. california whites vote majority GOP, but nowhere near the 80%+ ratios seen in the south. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293732) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:03 PM Author: Trip smoky set antidepressant drug The institutional GOP is being run out of the party. The “centrist” cuck Democrats can have them. We’ll take the Bernie bros. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36294473) |
|
Date: June 23rd, 2018 5:03 PM Author: wine misanthropic main people brunch i don't see that happening. if anything, the corporatist wing of the GOP has cemented itself after the tea party wave and the trump era. no trumpian candidates are even in the senate/house GOP leadership pipeline, which means the next speaker/majority leader will be an enforcer for the neoliberal faction of the party. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36297505) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 8:53 PM Author: beady-eyed navy organic girlfriend THEY HAVE TO GO BACK. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36293927) |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:02 PM Author: Trip smoky set antidepressant drug (guy who doesn’t realize that the Democrat and Republican parties are being permanently realigned)
Latinos don’t give a fuck about immigrants once they are in the door. Trumpism/the new GOP will appeal to them because we are now the only ones advocating for the interests of the working class. |
|
Date: June 22nd, 2018 11:04 PM Author: Fragrant painfully honest school gay wizard the future GOP is going to be all white people + a minority of latino and azn voters (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36294475) |
|
Date: June 23rd, 2018 10:49 AM Author: motley abode clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36296043) |
|
Date: June 23rd, 2018 10:50 AM Author: Lavender area psychic Objectively false, it is more dominant at the state and municipal level than any part has been in many decades. There may be a presidential coalition that can oppose it, but on every other important level, especially the senate, the Republicans have a hard advantage that will last decades. The senate will allow whites to push the shitskins off the island. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36296057) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2018 12:09 PM Author: motley abode clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4007971&forum_id=2#36301201) |