\
  The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
BackRefresh Options Favorite

China and the US falling into a Thucydides trap

...
Insane right-wing gun nut
  07/06/18
The Bailey Jay Trap https://www.cfr.org/blog/four-traps-c...
CapTTTainFalcon
  07/06/18
Ty
Insane right-wing gun nut
  07/06/18
Xi promised in 2015 that Chinaís annual growth would not fal...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,
  07/06/18
...
HBS '14 Buddy
  07/06/18
Those who study history are condemned to fit everything into...
Coriolanus
  07/06/18
...
.;:..;:;.....:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;,
  07/06/18
...
cowgod
  07/07/18
...
Royall Jenkins
  07/07/18
...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,
  07/06/18
If US GDP grows at 4% this quarter we are matching China, fr...
Coriolanus
  07/06/18
Yep. China's economy is not what it seems and China is not ...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,
  07/06/18
Unless America plans to unleash this military stuff, or the ...
HoldUp.(I Now Live as a Gay Man)
  07/06/18
Fuck a military conflict. China's just going to grow old and...
Coriolanus
  07/06/18
Xi Jingping promised the Chinese four things and he's failin...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,
  07/06/18
the second thing they are going to start some major war and...
TRM (The Russian Mod)
  07/06/18
20 million excess males also
a bitter little Eichmann
  07/07/18
LOLLLLL AT THIS U ARE SO FUKING STUPID JFC
,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,.
  07/07/18
lol keep crying turdcel
boner police?
  07/07/18
quarterly gdp growth means absolutely nothing, only annual r...
1920 North Side Mick Gangster
  07/07/18
Soviet power will prevail over both. When you Yankee pigs an...
ARE Reptile
  07/06/18
*yawn*
.;:..;:;.....:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;,
  07/06/18
...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,
  07/07/18
...
I Listen to Porn Podcasts
  07/07/18
your house is overvalued in the next recession you will lose...
White Power HVAC, LLC.
  07/07/18
cr
Real Estate
  07/06/18
Read Ghost Fleet if you like this stuff
Sir Incelot
  07/07/18
Good book
longwangpoontang
  07/07/18
China is literally PWNing AMERIKKKA. Trump is helping it eve...
,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,.
  07/07/18
Hasn't their stock market dropped something crazy like 20%? ...
gibberish
  07/07/18
lol omg 20%%%%% !!!! jfc, from like late jan to end of f...
,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,.
  07/07/18
The US military is stretched too thin. In 15-20 years C...
Marty McFly's Japanese truck
  07/07/18
We arent trying to control SE Asia, we are just looking to p...
Sir Incelot
  07/07/18
Iím a collectiv human freedom guy, and China is horrifying o...
a bitter little Eichmann
  07/07/18
We need to control East Asia because we need East Asia to do...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,
  07/09/18
because if chinese people invent AI it will enslave all huma...
boner police?
  07/09/18
why do they need to wait another 15-20 years to be able to f...
..,.....,,,,,...,,,,.....,,.,.,,,,.,.,.,,,.,
  07/09/18
Cr. These days they could unequivocally win.
..,.,.,.,.,..,,.,.,,..,.,..:.,.,:,.,,,
  07/09/18
...
,.,.,.,..,.,..,:,,:,,.,::,..,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.
  07/09/18
Two of these traps suppose the people will turn against the ...
America-hating Israel First Neocon Upset Jew (reti
  07/09/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: Insane right-wing gun nut



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378267)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 9:50 PM
Author: CapTTTainFalcon

The Bailey Jay Trap

https://www.cfr.org/blog/four-traps-china-may-fall

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378305)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:31 PM
Author: Insane right-wing gun nut

Ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378451)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:36 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,


Xi promised in 2015 that Chinaís annual growth would not fall below 6.5 percent for the subsequent five years.

LJL. No wonder the Chinese GDP is fraudulent.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378463)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:47 PM
Author: HBS '14 Buddy



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378499)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:32 PM
Author: Coriolanus (STEM to Win)

Those who study history are condemned to fit everything into neat little boxes that leave a lot of nuance on the table.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378453)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 11:47 PM
Author: .;:..;:;.....:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378673)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 10:54 AM
Author: cowgod (theimmigrant@live.com)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380100)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 2:05 PM
Author: Royall Jenkins



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380874)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:33 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378457)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:36 PM
Author: Coriolanus (STEM to Win)

If US GDP grows at 4% this quarter we are matching China, from a bigger base no less so our surplus is double or triple theirs.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378462)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:36 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,


Yep. China's economy is not what it seems and China is not as powerful as it thinks. It is falling for the Thucydides Trap. They think China can put America down, but it's nowhere close militarily.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378464)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:51 PM
Author: HoldUp.(I Now Live as a Gay Man)

Unless America plans to unleash this military stuff, or the Han creativity is significant... the fundamentals are clear

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378502)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:52 PM
Author: Coriolanus (STEM to Win)

Fuck a military conflict. China's just going to grow old and slow down.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378506)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:57 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,


Xi Jingping promised the Chinese four things and he's failing to delivery on all four. There will either be a revolution or power grab/civil war by another leader or war against a foreign power in an effort by Xi to keep the people occupied.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378513)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 11:34 PM
Author: TRM (The Russian Mod) (@realcharliebrown)

the second thing

they are going to start some major war and an unbelievable number of people will die just to keep the communist party in power

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378619)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 7:05 PM
Author: a bitter little Eichmann (Pederastrian)

20 million excess males also

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36382214)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 1:05 PM
Author: ,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,.


LOLLLLL AT THIS U ARE SO FUKING STUPID JFC

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380655)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 1:08 PM
Author: boner police?

lol keep crying turdcel

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380664)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 1:10 PM
Author: 1920 North Side Mick Gangster (Dragonchain hodler)

quarterly gdp growth means absolutely nothing, only annual rates matter

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380672)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 10:55 PM
Author: ARE Reptile

Soviet power will prevail over both. When you Yankee pigs and the gooks have killed each other only the Soviets will remain.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378509)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 11:47 PM
Author: .;:..;:;.....:.;.,,,.,.:,.;;,;;;..;,


*yawn*

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378678)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 10:49 AM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380078)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 7:03 PM
Author: I Listen to Porn Podcasts (#Qanon)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36382197)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 12:49 PM
Author: White Power HVAC, LLC.

your house is overvalued in the next recession you will lose it and be on the lots with Peterman

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380592)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 6th, 2018 11:24 PM
Author: Real Estate

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36378580)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 10:53 AM
Author: Sir Incelot

Read Ghost Fleet if you like this stuff

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380097)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 1:00 PM
Author: longwangpoontang

Good book

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380634)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 1:07 PM
Author: ,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,.


China is literally PWNing AMERIKKKA. Trump is helping it even more than otherwise. So many countries now trust China more than the US. Their belt and road initiative is PWNing the fucking US. They are investing in countries the US shuns. The US drops TPP, China is fucking doing its own free trade agreement in Asia that will PWN the US even more. And it's gonna put the nail in the coffin with its China 2025 whatever thing to PWn the US on high level tech shit like solar energy, electric cars, etc. The US is gonna wake up in 2025 if it still exists and be like OH SHIT WE FUKED, WE GOT OUR ASS FUKED

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380658)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 1:31 PM
Author: gibberish

Hasn't their stock market dropped something crazy like 20%? How long can they last without access to US market$? And lol at all of our debt they hold fucking them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380743)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 1:32 PM
Author: ,.,,..,.,,.,.,:,,:,...,:::,..,.,.:...:.,:.::,.


lol omg 20%%%%% !!!!

jfc, from like late jan to end of feb US market dropped 10%

adn thanks to fuking bastard trumps stupid braindead tariffs its down like 3 percent since end of jan

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36380747)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 3:17 PM
Author: Marty McFly's Japanese truck

The US military is stretched too thin.

In 15-20 years China will be able to confidently fight the US to a stalemate in its backyard.

We can't concentrate enough forces on East Asia to do anything about it unless we maintain a distinct advantage in that region which probably requires a 4:1 overall global advantage which is impossible because China's economy can turn out ships, subs and missiles faster than we can. And they are already building up faster than us.

The best we can hope for is rallying a bunch of allies like Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Australia to match US defense spending in Asia. But not all of them are reliable allies.

But the whole scenario begs the question, why do we really need to control East Asia? The free navigation of the seas? To what, trade with China?



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36381134)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 3:22 PM
Author: Sir Incelot

We arent trying to control SE Asia, we are just looking to prevent China from dominating all the resources there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36381152)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 7th, 2018 7:08 PM
Author: a bitter little Eichmann (Pederastrian)

Iím a collectiv human freedom guy, and China is horrifying on this point

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36382230)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 9th, 2018 12:25 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.:,.,.,:::,...,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,


We need to control East Asia because we need East Asia to do business with America. It will be disastrous for the US economy if China holds all of the influence.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36391065)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 9th, 2018 12:30 PM
Author: boner police?

because if chinese people invent AI it will enslave all humans and perform 300 years of pain experiments in an attempt to figure out how to build more efficient bullet trains

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36391091)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 9th, 2018 12:34 PM
Author: ..,.....,,,,,...,,,,.....,,.,.,,,,.,.,.,,,.,


why do they need to wait another 15-20 years to be able to fight the US to a draw?

they already did 60 years ago.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36391117)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 9th, 2018 1:01 PM
Author: ..,.,.,.,.,..,,.,.,,..,.,..:.,.,:,.,,,


Cr. These days they could unequivocally win.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36391270)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 9th, 2018 12:39 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,..,.,..,:,,:,,.,::,..,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36391146)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 9th, 2018 1:53 PM
Author: America-hating Israel First Neocon Upset Jew (reti

Two of these traps suppose the people will turn against the government or not go along with the prevailing governing culture, but the Han Chinese seem culturally or even biologically inclined to submit to the "group" will and do not rock the boat - they don't act as individuals but see themselves as "part" of the Chinese "whole". Chinese people rebelling would be like China rebelling against itself - it doesn't make sense.

The other "traps" about the changing international order where instability rises as one power supplants or seeks to supplant another is more likely but seems more ominous for the United States than it does for China.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4019681&forum_id=2#36391684)