This is the 12th hand of the MTT at my table and everyone has played really weak so far. No show downs. No one has even bet pre-flop. I will be the first.

Blinds are 25/50. I have 100bb. There's 1 limper who's limped in every hand and everyone else folds. I'm on the button with AcKc. I bet 200. Small blinds folds, Villain w/ big blinds calls, limper folds.

Flop: 10dQh6d

Villain checks. I bet $200. Villain thinks for a few seconds and calls.

Turn: Jd. Villain insta-shoves all in.

Me: ?? (I have ~4500 left, villain is slightly covered).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36811901)

and I don't think it's a bad c-bet, pretty standard

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36812303)

him leading with the auto-overshove smells like weakness to me, but obviously the irl read would be very important. Cash game, I would likely fold, but in this situation I would probably call

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36811933)

he likely has a pocket pair/set or 2 pair (Q10) and is representing a flush, the shove is weak

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36812400)

Weak=loose-passive in my book.

And he defended his BB, the original limper folded

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36812573)

I doubt this villain is running some deep meta game in the first level on the tournament where they are jamming 100bb with the nuts.

With recreational/inexperienced players, you see this kind of thing the most when they don't want to have to face any more decisions.

They don't have JJ+/AK, because we'd expect to see a raise preflop. TT might also be out. I don't think they have 66, because I'd expect to see a raise on the flop, same with QT.

I think you're likely up against a made hand with room to improve that contains a diamond: AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, T9, 99, 89, OR you're up against a small/med flush, of which there are fewer likely combos: suited connectors and one-gappers.

In conclusion, I'm calling expecting to lose a good portion of the time but not enough that I think the right play is folding.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36812464)

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=TdQh6dJd&g=he&h1=AcKc&h2=AdQ%2C+AQd%2C+AdJ%2C+AdT%2C+KdQ%2C+KQd%2C+KdJ%2C+QdJ%2C+T9d%2C+99d%2C+89d%2C+8d9%2C+8d7d%2C+7d6d%2C+6d5d%2C+5d4d%2C+Ad5d%2C+Ad4d%2C+Ad3d%2C+Ad2d&s=generic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=TdQh6dJd&g=he&h1=AcKc&h2=AdQ%2C+AQd%2C+AdJ%2C+AdT%2C+KdQ%2C+KQd%2C+KdJ%2C+QdJ%2C+T9d%2C+99d%2C+89d%2C+8d9%2C+8d7d%2C+7d6d%2C+6d5d%2C+5d4d%2C+Ad5d%2C+Ad4d%2C+Ad3d%2C+Ad2d%2C+QT%2C+66&s=generic

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36812503)

hes playing against morons throw GTO out the window he should be in pure explo mode

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36812548)

You should only start thinking deeply if you are playing against a known LAG in a mid stakes cash game or playing 10/20 NL and above

In a $500 buyin MTT he always has it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36812510)

Flop is a check for me youre kinda in the 25th-50th percentile of your range here and dont block much of his calling range and dont block any FDs. Youre flipping vs hands as bad as 3-high ({3d2d}). That being said, I could get behind a cbet to put pressure on underpairs but those are a relatively small sliver of BBs range and you better be willing to barrel bc fishy villains dont just fold pairs--after all, "you can have ace king"-- and there are so many shitty turns anyway i dont think barreling is profitable. Plus you have some robust equity--3 clean outs to the nuts plus 6 total Aces+kings that put you way ahead of his range not to mention nut no-pair can already be good and it would be a disaster to fold your equity to a x/r so Im always wanting to see the turn w/ {AK}. Therefore check. You can bet dry turns for value w/ A-high if he checks again. Your cbet accomplishes nothing--no better hands fold, no worse hands that are in excellent shape fold.

As played he most like has a shitty flush "protecting" himself from another diamond and trying to get cute making his hand look bluffy. Doubling up at this point isnt as good a benefit as is getting stacked a detriment. Sure he shows up with something retarded that you beat once in a blue moon but even the extremely rare times he doesnt have a flush hes never drawing dead, whereas youre frequently drawing dead.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#36812543)

I actually now think flop is 100% a bet, and it's really not even close.

Even though flop texture is kind of a spread out flop with some cards that tend to hit villain's range it's still more likely than not just combinatorically that villain has no pair. So with us having nut no pair we're likely still ahead of villain.

So we have a hand that's likely good but needs protection because nut no pair is definitely still vulnerable.

Also, even if we are behind then most of those hand's we're losing to will still be folding at least some frequency to a cbet, and at an ever higher frequency to a turn barrel. Having fold equity against better here is a huge boon to our EV and we need to exploit that.

Finally, our range is so strong here relative to villain (we probably have a range advantage upwards of 3:1--meaning our EV in the pot is 3x that of V's) so we should really be just betting with every single hand in our flop range and we'll just be printing $$ with that strategy. So {AK} is definitely a bet and pretty much any hand you'd be ISO-ing with pre is also a flop bet

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4077730&forum_id=2#37393397)