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Did Kavanaugh do the rape or is this a false allegation???
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:41 AM Author: turquoise electric international law enforcement agency boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847207) |
Date: September 20th, 2018 8:43 AM Author: Lascivious stubborn chapel They are so OBVIOUSLY FALSE.
That woman would certainly be handed millions and a fantastic career by MSM if she succeeded with this. And she would become a hero to all US Destructionists. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:44 AM Author: cobalt aphrodisiac potus cruise ship Who knows? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847216) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:47 AM Author: glittery bawdyhouse what would she have to gain by bringing this up now? doesn't make sense. we must believe accusers, people don't make stuff like this up. the moral stigma of being raped is too much for a sane person to go through to just make it up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847224) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:52 AM Author: Bisexual Flesh Toilet Seat Well she isn’t claiming she was raped. And Anita Hill’s accusations against Clarence Thomas made her a hero, so there’s obviously upside. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847236) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:55 AM Author: hyperventilating obsidian really tough guy sneaky criminal She is an avowed modern liberal. She gets to be a supreme hero/martyr for her cause. She will not suffer socially or professionally for making these allegations. Mind you I’m not at all speaking to their veracity. But people who say she has nothing to gain are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847246) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:04 AM Author: cobalt aphrodisiac potus cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847271) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:12 AM Author: Charismatic fuchsia karate Let's remember to bump this again when her book deal is announced. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847289) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:17 AM Author: adulterous peach philosopher-king The obvious falsity of your claim is demonstrated by the sheer volume of American women who claim to have been a victim of rape or sexual assault.
In a sane society, you are correct, nothing to gain by lying. But in our insane lib carnival society, women proudly wear their “victim” status as a badge of honor. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:11 AM Author: up-to-no-good at-the-ready native national security agency he's not serious (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847681) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:22 AM Author: Apoplectic Milk lawman8 is on the spectrum please leave him be (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847734) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:28 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847773) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:47 AM Author: Charismatic fuchsia karate Yes - unless he can prove beyond any doubt* that he did not.
* "beyond any doubt" meaning that she publicly rescinds her allegations and admits that she was lying the entire time. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:51 AM Author: turquoise electric international law enforcement agency boiling water Jfc why do we as a society believe rape accusers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847232) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:53 AM Author: Charismatic fuchsia karate because men want to have sex with women (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847238) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:13 AM Author: Nighttime well-lubricated rigpig house Speak 4 urself (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847300) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:55 AM Author: metal vibrant market scourge upon the earth I'd put my probability distribution on
50% its made up whole cloth
25% it roughly happened, but it was a generic prep school kid she didn't know, and she grafted it onto the prep school kid she didn't know who wound up becoming a prominent judge
20% it roughly happened, but it was more Kavanaugh made a drunken bubbling move, and the whole thing got much more in violent in the retelling
5% its a reasonably accurate allegation |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:01 AM Author: Lascivious stubborn chapel So 95 - 5 no. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847262) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:02 AM Author: metal vibrant market scourge upon the earth based on what we know right now, yeah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847265) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:10 AM Author: alcoholic submissive pisswyrm depressive Good categories but I put the odds at more like 25/25/40/10 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847284) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:45 AM Author: metal vibrant market scourge upon the earth I'd be interested in a discussion of what a reasonable basis for moving percentages up and down in each category are.
Couple thoughts
Category 1) things that increase my probability estimates - the general apocalyptic tone of modern political coverage. The fact that the first retelling of this event was after Kavanaugh was already on the shortlist of potential future SC nominees
Category 2) things that increase my probability estimates - I think this sort of memory grafting is actually pretty common, sort of unrelated example - I was reading a piece on The Ringer couple of days ago:
“My favorite story about youth football in Miami is the time that my Orlando high school played Miami Northwestern in the state championship two years after I’d graduated. It was a bloodbath; Miami Northwestern’s roster was so deep that seemingly no one noticed that Lavonte David, a future NFL All-Pro, was on the team. One hiccup on the way to Northwestern’s 41-0 win was a knee injury to Jacory Harris, the Miami team’s starting quarterback who would eventually play for the Miami Hurricanes. A backup came in and immediately threw a deep touchdown to Aldarius Johnson, another future Hurricane. When Teddy Bridgewater, who was a freshman that year, later rose to prominence, I wondered if Bridgewater was the player who made the throw. A few years ago, I spoke with another Northwestern player about it. No, he clarified, that team was so stacked that Bridgewater wasn’t even the backup. ”
I think this sort of thing happens a lot, she didn't go to the same school as Kavanaugh,
what would dramatic lower my probability in this category is evidence that they actually knew each other better than seems apparent right now, does Kavanaugh remember her?
Category 3) This seems like event that isn't that extraordinary, these sort of drunken events that seem like different things to different people, I'm willing to believe they happen roughly everywhere
Category 4) along the same way, I don't think its extraordinary the sometime guys go to far in these event, its not an exceptionally crazy story ala broken glass everywhere
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Date: September 20th, 2018 1:43 PM Author: vigorous brethren hospital Lavonte David is 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36849161) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:24 AM Author: Frum masturbator I’d say there’s almost no way it happened as she described.
And it wasn’t “rape” like many members of the media have said or implied.
Most likely she’s confabulating. Probably has convinced herself it happened.
As for libs, they seem to forget about the Duke lacrosse case, or that rich kid who got thrown out of Stanford, or the litany of false flags of racism on receipts or properties.
People make false accusations all the time. It’s a dangerous world when the accuser is always right & shouldn’t be questioned. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:30 AM Author: Bronze Brunch Sandwich You forgot the most 180 one. Rolling Stone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847386) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:30 AM Author: Frum masturbator I knew there were plenty of other big ones that I wasn’t recalling off the top of my head. Rolling Stone is a gigantic one. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847786) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:16 AM Author: up-to-no-good at-the-ready native national security agency i think your 20% category might completely swallow the 5%.
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Date: September 20th, 2018 8:59 AM Author: Tripping Area Gay Wizard substantially more likely than not that it happened generally as alleged (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847255) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:02 AM Author: Lascivious stubborn chapel Reverse! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847269) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:09 AM Author: turquoise electric international law enforcement agency boiling water Can't tell if flame... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847282) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:11 AM Author: alcoholic submissive pisswyrm depressive That he was actually attempting to rape her? No way, 10% chance or less. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847287) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:15 AM Author: Nighttime well-lubricated rigpig house No, that at some point he was drunk and participated in some kind of horseplay with her. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847307) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:22 AM Author: dashing olive public bath people who do this think the girl will eventually give in. They don't plan on going full rape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847346) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:01 AM Author: alcoholic submissive pisswyrm depressive Bingo. 99% of the time she says no and the dude backs off. Her story didn’t even mention that she said no or otherwise indicated that she wasn’t into it so the whole thing could be called a misunderstanding as far as I’m concerned.
Not defending his behavior but there’s a big difference between a dude being a drunk clumsy idiot with no game and a dude knowingly forcing himself on a woman against her will. Even in her version of events I’m not sure he got to the latter category. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:07 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression Why was his hand allegedly over her mouth then? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847659) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:12 AM Author: alcoholic submissive pisswyrm depressive Have you ever put you hand over a girl’s mouth before? Were you trying to rape her? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847685) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:24 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression Look, all I can tell you as a legally trained bro is that the hand over the mouth would be enough to get knowledge of lack of consent. You don't do that when you are drunkenly feeling her up at a crowded house party unless you want to muffle any protest.
If you want to tell me about trying to keep a screamer quiet while you are mutually doing something between two consenting adults that's one thing, but I don't think that's at all where the allegations were. This was not a rape allegation. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:27 AM Author: alcoholic submissive pisswyrm depressive All I can tell you as a legally trained bro is that you’re assuming both an unproven fact and intent. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847765) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:30 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression Wait, so now you want to go back to the point that this is just an allegation? Of course its just an allegation--do I really need to say that?
However, if the allegation were in any way substantiated beyond her testimony, I think you would have very compelling evidence of intent.
Have you personally tried cases before? |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:31 AM Author: alcoholic submissive pisswyrm depressive It’s true, if there were evidence of something else we might be able to prove something else. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847794) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:23 AM Author: up-to-no-good at-the-ready native national security agency 99% of the time if she says no the dude backs off. however, anyone who thinks that a guy being aggressive, clumsily or otherwise, can't lead to consensual sex is just bullshitting his or herself. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:26 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression Sure, but if he cared to make it consensual why did he muffle her mouth while he was feeling her up?
Again, that's what the hand over mouth is a really big deal here. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:32 AM Author: up-to-no-good at-the-ready native national security agency i don't recall the exact details because there is that stupid thing about the friend jumping on both of them the hand over the mouth could be just to settle down and quit being hysterical and see you later you've never been in a situation where the other side is overreacting and you tell them to quiet down? you've never been the one overreacting?
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:23 AM Author: Tripping Area Gay Wizard why do you think it's so incredible? do drunk 17 year olds as a rule never sexually assault girls? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847353) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:12 AM Author: Crimson Titillating Piazza Nowag It is a lie. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847293) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:16 AM Author: Violet idea he suggested clown The story as it stands is just ridiculous. She can't say when or where it happened, or even the season. She claims she was in a bathing suit, but gives no other description of it being a pool party or anyone else swimming or being wet. She claims it was her and 4 dudes, which isn't exactly a party. He was supposedly groping her while his friend dogpiled them repeatedly? The whole thing is ludicrous and I think it's 100% made up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847313) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:21 AM Author: Nighttime well-lubricated rigpig house Specifically she claims it was a bathing suit with clothes over it, which sounds like she was fully clothed. Just added the bathing suit detail to make it sound more lurid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847341) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:22 AM Author: Violet idea he suggested clown Which actually does the opposite b/c it is hard as fuck to get off a one-piece from under clothes. Normally you'd wear a dress. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847347) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:25 AM Author: Tripping Area Gay Wizard this is a great example of reptile logic. first assume she's lying about the bathing suit, then point out that it would be dumb to lie about being in a bathing suit, and from that conclude that she's a liar and dumb (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847360) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:27 AM Author: Violet idea he suggested clown My point is that her wearing a bathing suit under her clothes doesn't make any sense and she provides no other detail as to why she would have been wearing one at all. So yes, that makes her dumb and a liar. Liars frequently add more detail than necessary because they think it makes their story sound more real. This lie happens to be a really dumb one. See also: UVA Jackie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847370) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:30 AM Author: Nighttime well-lubricated rigpig house Great example of 85IQ lib projecting. I never claimed she was lying about the bathing suit, just that the bathing suit is in irrelevant detail that she added solely for the purposes of making it sound more Lurid than it was. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847390) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:28 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression Unless she remembered the details of being felt up, of course. In which case the presence of the bathing suit under the clothing would be significant to her. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847769) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 1:51 PM Author: Excitant Menage Double Fault How so? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36849203) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:23 AM Author: adulterous peach philosopher-king If you look at her yearbook photo, she’s pretty ugly, which further indicates her story is complete bullshit.
Maybe it’s a fantasy she got off to, and confused it with real life. |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:41 AM Author: Frum masturbator Maybe he was drunkenly fooling around with another, hotter chick, who was laughing & enjoying it. This woman, who is ugly, got jealous. And eventually, because she is mentally ill, she confabulated that she was the girl Kavanaugh was with; she too could be sexually desired; and she too could be a #metoo victim. Ah, the victimization obsessed culture we have created! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847458) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:28 AM Author: dashing olive public bath yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847375) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 9:41 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression I don't think it was rape. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847462) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:03 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle ebony business firm to be clear, it isn't even a rape allegation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847632) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:07 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847661) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:12 AM Author: appetizing duck-like water buffalo This is what the GOP should lead with. It would be a 180 Trumpian response. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847683) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:09 AM Author: Cerebral meetinghouse juggernaut I think he could be telling the truth that he doesn't have any recollection of it and I also think she could be telling the truth that what she describes happened. They're not mutually exclusive. I mean, this kind of stuff goes on ALL THE TIME at HS and college parties. Who here hasn't been a little aggressive with a girl, especially if she's been giving you signals, flirting and you find yourself alone in a bedroom with her? Usually, the girl is cool with it. Sometimes, they're not, and you back off. But if he was black out drunk (might be why he has no recollection), then he might have ignored her protests or been more aggressive than he should have. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847671) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:14 AM Author: alcoholic submissive pisswyrm depressive Or maybe just MAYBE this drunk 17 year old misread her signals and the situation. Which is of course attempted rape in the #metoo era. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847699) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Cerebral meetinghouse juggernaut Definitely possible, as well. The other thing that makes it seem not so made up is bringing it up to her therapist and husband 6 years ago. I mean, if she's as cynical as some think, she could have had this planned for awhile and knew she would need the corroboration of a past recollection to third parties, but that's a bit of a stretch. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847725) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:32 AM Author: Heady center indirect expression Tim, how does a chick misread signals when the guy puts his hand over her mouth? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847801) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:35 AM Author: Excitant Menage Double Fault Because she was blackout drunk and no one ever did that? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847817) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:25 AM Author: Exhilarant black office 50/50 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847747) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 10:25 AM Author: Excitant Menage Double Fault How can he rape?? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847750) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 1:45 PM Author: impertinent deer antler locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36849167) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 3:10 PM Author: turquoise electric international law enforcement agency boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36849684) |