That woman would certainly be handed millions and a fantastic career by MSM if she succeeded with this. And she would become a hero to all US Destructionists.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847215)

In a sane society, you are correct, nothing to gain by lying. But in our insane lib carnival society, women proudly wear their “victim” status as a badge of honor.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847320)

* "beyond any doubt" meaning that she publicly rescinds her allegations and admits that she was lying the entire time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847225)

50% its made up whole cloth

25% it roughly happened, but it was a generic prep school kid she didn't know, and she grafted it onto the prep school kid she didn't know who wound up becoming a prominent judge

20% it roughly happened, but it was more Kavanaugh made a drunken bubbling move, and the whole thing got much more in violent in the retelling

5% its a reasonably accurate allegation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847250)

Couple thoughts

Category 1) things that increase my probability estimates - the general apocalyptic tone of modern political coverage. The fact that the first retelling of this event was after Kavanaugh was already on the shortlist of potential future SC nominees

Category 2) things that increase my probability estimates - I think this sort of memory grafting is actually pretty common, sort of unrelated example - I was reading a piece on The Ringer couple of days ago:

“My favorite story about youth football in Miami is the time that my Orlando high school played Miami Northwestern in the state championship two years after I’d graduated. It was a bloodbath; Miami Northwestern’s roster was so deep that seemingly no one noticed that Lavonte David, a future NFL All-Pro, was on the team. One hiccup on the way to Northwestern’s 41-0 win was a knee injury to Jacory Harris, the Miami team’s starting quarterback who would eventually play for the Miami Hurricanes. A backup came in and immediately threw a deep touchdown to Aldarius Johnson, another future Hurricane. When Teddy Bridgewater, who was a freshman that year, later rose to prominence, I wondered if Bridgewater was the player who made the throw. A few years ago, I spoke with another Northwestern player about it. No, he clarified, that team was so stacked that Bridgewater wasn’t even the backup. ”

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/9/18/17873442/liberty-city-warriors-miami-high-school-football-luther-campbell-chad-johnson

I think this sort of thing happens a lot, she didn't go to the same school as Kavanaugh,

what would dramatic lower my probability in this category is evidence that they actually knew each other better than seems apparent right now, does Kavanaugh remember her?

Category 3) This seems like event that isn't that extraordinary, these sort of drunken events that seem like different things to different people, I'm willing to believe they happen roughly everywhere

Category 4) along the same way, I don't think its extraordinary the sometime guys go to far in these event, its not an exceptionally crazy story ala broken glass everywhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847493)

And it wasn’t “rape” like many members of the media have said or implied.

Most likely she’s confabulating. Probably has convinced herself it happened.

As for libs, they seem to forget about the Duke lacrosse case, or that rich kid who got thrown out of Stanford, or the litany of false flags of racism on receipts or properties.

People make false accusations all the time. It’s a dangerous world when the accuser is always right & shouldn’t be questioned.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847359)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847713)

Not defending his behavior but there’s a big difference between a dude being a drunk clumsy idiot with no game and a dude knowingly forcing himself on a woman against her will. Even in her version of events I’m not sure he got to the latter category.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847617)

If you want to tell me about trying to keep a screamer quiet while you are mutually doing something between two consenting adults that's one thing, but I don't think that's at all where the allegations were. This was not a rape allegation.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847743)

However, if the allegation were in any way substantiated beyond her testimony, I think you would have very compelling evidence of intent.

Have you personally tried cases before?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847784)

however, anyone who thinks that a guy being aggressive, clumsily or otherwise, can't lead to consensual sex is just bullshitting his or herself.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847735)

Again, that's what the hand over mouth is a really big deal here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847754)

the hand over the mouth could be just to settle down and quit being hysterical and see you later

you've never been in a situation where the other side is overreacting and you tell them to quiet down? you've never been the one overreacting?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847806)

Maybe it’s a fantasy she got off to, and confused it with real life.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4082087&forum_id=2#36847354)