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True artificial intelligence is decades, if not centuries, away

Everybody talking about “A.I.” replacing jobs wh...
Oh, you travel?
  12/04/18
have you read this short story? https://en.wikipedia.org/...
71 y/o man commuting to wagecuck
  12/04/18
you have no idea
average/ordinary/typical citizen/person
  12/04/18
...
kenilworth
  12/06/18
This is the conclusion I've come to as well Most AI these...
pedude
  12/04/18
...
spritezero
  12/04/18
i really, really hope you are right.
Dupa
  12/04/18
true when it comes to figuring out when we will get full AGI...
8=====================D
  12/04/18
Not saying many jobs can’t be automated, they absolute...
Oh, you travel?
  12/04/18
"the machine that can do your job better than you is ac...
Krampusnacht
  12/04/18
...
Oh, you travel?
  12/04/18
...
google starbucks
  12/04/18
Crazy how many people don't realize that AI is a marketing t...
borders
  12/05/18
...
Boichester United
  12/05/18
The consensus among scientists in the field is around 25 yea...
vonNeumann
  12/04/18
50/50, really.
H.L.R.L. Menckenstine
  12/04/18
And that's been the consensus for the past 50 years.
Buck "The Club" Paulette
  12/04/18
Exactly. Our track record for long term predictions is atroc...
leo34
  12/05/18
Those same scientists said fusion power plants were 20 years...
Nothing but Eight Assholes and a Token Cunt
  12/05/18
Yeah but I tell my boss that the keyword control F search I ...
theology is great
  12/04/18
As AI pioneer Herbert A. Simon wrote in 1965: "machines...
71 y/o man commuting to wagecuck
  12/04/18
"True" artificial intelligence will never be achie...
XIV
  12/04/18
You’re kids genome will be optimized by an algorithm t...
theology is great
  12/04/18
This seems unlikely to happen beyond anything that simply pr...
XIV
  12/04/18
the right to be free from disease will turn into a right to ...
theology is great
  12/04/18
I love the irony of someone speaking authoritatively about I...
fscknut
  12/05/18
No one is talking authoritatively you cum sucking faggot
theology is great
  12/05/18
Sorry lil breh, top here.
fscknut
  12/06/18
Lol
1st Ballot Wigger Hall of Famer
  12/06/18
The PRC is close to engineering genetic SuperChinks in the n...
Social Justice Reservist (Space Force Ret.)
  12/05/18
I tend to agree...I mean we don’t even know how our ow...
Oh, you travel?
  12/04/18
Why would ai require subjective experience to be general?
theology is great
  12/04/18
It wouldn’t, but it certainly limits the scope of AI, ...
Oh, you travel?
  12/04/18
It only limits the scope if you think there are computations...
theology is great
  12/04/18
Good point, seems to me there are...could an AI paint an imp...
Oh, you travel?
  12/04/18
what do you think would be the aspects of those activities t...
theology is great
  12/04/18
I wouldn’t call it knowledge, just a sort of epiphenom...
Oh, you travel?
  12/04/18
I don’t know you’re wrong but I really wanna kno...
theology is great
  12/04/18
why are you suggesting that subjective experience implies no...
Pumonymous
  12/04/18
Because I’m not an idiot
theology is great
  12/04/18
More than twice as many philosophers support physicalism abo...
Pumonymous
  12/04/18
Is this your first day in philosophy or something guy? Youre...
theology is great
  12/04/18
(Sane, high-IQ bro)
Pumonymous
  12/04/18
Yeah that too
Oh, you travel?
  12/04/18
These are they key underlying questions that'll never be ade...
XIV
  12/04/18
Why would these questions have to remain a mystery? At a...
"'"'"''"""
  12/05/18
Sup skinner
theology is great
  12/05/18
cognitivism isn't the same as behaviorism. internal brain st...
"'"'"''"""
  12/05/18
Beyond retarted, skinner
theology is great
  12/06/18
False. Attach 100 Einsteins (we'll have them thanks to g...
solace and wallace
  12/04/18
It doesn't matter. If it eats just 30% of blue and white col...
H.R. Puffendorf
  12/04/18
but the black guy on those microsoft commercials was telling...
Guy Debord
  12/04/18
...
Buck "The Club" Paulette
  12/04/18
...
A Jurisprudence is Performed
  12/05/18
Please tell me sex bots are a shorter term goal
Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman
  12/04/18
but we only want low-IQ sexbots.
Boomer Parable
  12/05/18
It's really just boomers planning on AI sex robots and the s...
no waste raw vegan
  12/04/18
I agree
Taylor Swift was not a hobby she was a lifestyle
  12/04/18
I'm afraid I can't do that Dave.
honiara
  12/04/18
Well for example Ray Kurzweil says that we will be able to m...
Upset Jew
  12/05/18
We’re fucked.
Boomer Parable
  12/05/18
Kurzweil is kind of an overly optimistic loony boomer, but m...
literal Marxist calling you a literal Nazi
  12/05/18
The thing is I get the criticism but I never see anyone be a...
Upset Jew
  12/05/18
most people don't argue against his claims about where hardw...
"'"'"''"""
  12/07/18
You're going to find that rather difficult without your spac...
honiara
  12/05/18
The recent wave of progress in AI has nothing to do with com...
"'"'"''"""
  12/05/18
The work has already been done for us by mother nature throu...
PhilosopherKing
  12/05/18
yes, when we can grow artificial organics with brains and te...
Boomer Life-Coach Telling You To Accept Diversity
  12/05/18
When AGI happens, it will be an economic disaster at first. ...
fscknut
  12/05/18
This but the other way around. The humans will be the slaves...
wesley willis
  12/05/18
...
Boomer Parable
  12/05/18
do mainframes still exist? are they still made?
honiara
  12/05/18
Too many people in this thread are relying on the human brai...
LathamTouchedMe
  12/05/18
And that's actually a detriment, at least to video game AI. ...
Oh, you travel?
  12/05/18
in what domains do you think this is important?
"'"'"''"""
  12/05/18
I only brought up the video game example to show that humans...
LathamTouchedMe
  12/05/18
This is basically right, but i think it is important to note...
"'"'"''"""
  12/06/18
Dont even need real world. Starcraft II is a computer game t...
leo34
  12/06/18
I am actually thinking Starcraft might be easy, or at least ...
"'"'"''"""
  12/06/18
Deepmind's team does just fine in mini-games too, which was ...
leo34
  12/06/18
Lolled in my office at this absurd attempt to move the goalp...
the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)
  12/05/18
what an idiotic take. you don't need AI's that are complete...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.
  12/05/18
I didn't say it could not replace jobs so fuck off pumo.
Oh, you travel?
  12/05/18
"Everybody talking about “A.I.” replacing j...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.
  12/05/18
now provide some examples of an artificial intelligence with...
Oh, you travel?
  12/05/18
speech transcription, medium-quality working translation ser...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.
  12/05/18
Lol at this childish rambling. Everything op said checks out
leolenin
  12/05/18
no it doesn't, it's a total load of shit
,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.
  12/05/18
What are you so angry about?
leolenin
  12/05/18
don't like OP's mix of pomposity and retardation
,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.
  12/05/18
Your height?
leolenin
  12/05/18
gotta agree with the pumo here.
diabolical degenerate shooting his goon
  12/05/18
...
spritezero
  12/05/18
...
....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,....,.,.,.,.....,.,.,.
  12/05/18
thats all it was ever supposed to be. its just becoming real...
diabolical degenerate shooting his goon
  12/05/18
As someone who's done research in the field of ML here's my ...
borders
  12/06/18
100% CR. I understand what OP and many poasters are getting...
biological rape weapon
  12/06/18
Thank you. I think those of us who are essentially epipheno...
PhilosopherKing
  12/06/18
"We also believe that what we call human consciousness ...
cannon
  12/06/18
Very hard for me to do! I'm not that deft at explaining suc...
PhilosopherKing
  12/06/18
Bull. Shit.
1st Ballot Wigger Hall of Famer
  12/06/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:49 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

Everybody talking about “A.I.” replacing jobs when it’s really just complex scripting and pathfinding. A real A.I. that learns and adapts and grows? Nope, not even close.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351717)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:50 PM
Author: 71 y/o man commuting to wagecuck

have you read this short story?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Understand_(story)

what about something like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351721)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:50 PM
Author: average/ordinary/typical citizen/person

you have no idea

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351722)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 4:57 AM
Author: kenilworth



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37359133)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:50 PM
Author: pedude

This is the conclusion I've come to as well

Most AI these days is glorified curve fitting

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351723)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:54 PM
Author: spritezero



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351743)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:50 PM
Author: Dupa (bloodacre@gmail.com)

i really, really hope you are right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351724)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:51 PM
Author: 8=====================D

true when it comes to figuring out when we will get full AGI, but what fraction of jobs truly require that to be automated? surely many do not

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351726)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:53 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

Not saying many jobs can’t be automated, they absolutely can be. But it’s also not AI. AI just became a shorthand for automation somehow, so now the uninformed think it is just around the corner when it really is not.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351740)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:54 PM
Author: Krampusnacht

"the machine that can do your job better than you is actually pretty dumb"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351747)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:55 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351755)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:02 PM
Author: google starbucks



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351796)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 1:42 AM
Author: borders

Crazy how many people don't realize that AI is a marketing term (in 99.9% of cases).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37352573)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 11:30 AM
Author: Boichester United



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37353874)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:55 PM
Author: vonNeumann

The consensus among scientists in the field is around 25 years before AGI. No one knows when it'll happen. Could be sooner or later than that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351749)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:56 PM
Author: H.L.R.L. Menckenstine

50/50, really.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351758)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:16 PM
Author: Buck "The Club" Paulette

And that's been the consensus for the past 50 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351899)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 1:04 PM
Author: leo34

Exactly. Our track record for long term predictions is atrocious.

It is as dumb to predict 10 years as it is 50 years or 100 years. There is hardly any basis other than some generic "Moore's law" that's not even valid anymore.

"We don't know". But this is apparently not an acceptable answer.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354442)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:06 PM
Author: Nothing but Eight Assholes and a Token Cunt

Those same scientists said fusion power plants were 20 years out in 1950

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37356034)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:57 PM
Author: theology is great

Yeah but I tell my boss that the keyword control F search I did was data mining and I get paid more to say that

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351763)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 10:57 PM
Author: 71 y/o man commuting to wagecuck

As AI pioneer Herbert A. Simon wrote in 1965: "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do."[19]

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351764)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:01 PM
Author: XIV

"True" artificial intelligence will never be achieved, any talk about it is smoke and mirrors and science fiction. Ignoring that, there's no real fundamental progress being made in AI research; nearly everything that's funded today is practical engineering applications with little/no insight into any underlying principles.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351785)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:02 PM
Author: theology is great

You’re kids genome will be optimized by an algorithm that we don’t understand

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351795)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:04 PM
Author: XIV

This seems unlikely to happen beyond anything that simply prevents certain pathologies like cancers, autism, heterosexuality, etc.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351813)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:09 PM
Author: theology is great

the right to be free from disease will turn into a right to be free from below average iq causing a feedback loop arms race on iq. It will be torture to have kids with <300 iq in 200 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351854)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 11:44 AM
Author: fscknut

I love the irony of someone speaking authoritatively about IQ while not understanding how re-meaning works.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37353933)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 12:17 PM
Author: theology is great

No one is talking authoritatively you cum sucking faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354122)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 4:44 AM
Author: fscknut

Sorry lil breh, top here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37359129)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 11:25 AM
Author: 1st Ballot Wigger Hall of Famer

Lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37360210)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 1:33 PM
Author: Social Justice Reservist (Space Force Ret.)

The PRC is close to engineering genetic SuperChinks in the next decade. The NOWAG gap must be closed.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354681)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:05 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

I tend to agree...I mean we don’t even know how our own brains work, the mind/body problem, the problem of consciousness, etc. I’m no doctor but I fail to see how any paradigmatic AI can be achieved without that knowledge.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351815)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:07 PM
Author: theology is great

Why would ai require subjective experience to be general?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351830)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:09 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

It wouldn’t, but it certainly limits the scope of AI, we won’t be seeing anything out of Asimov or anything.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351852)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:10 PM
Author: theology is great

It only limits the scope if you think there are computations that can only be done nonphysically

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351861)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:13 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

Good point, seems to me there are...could an AI paint an impressionist work or write a compelling novel? Could it assess someone’s body language and determine their motives? I honestly don’t know.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351883)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:20 PM
Author: theology is great

what do you think would be the aspects of those activities that an AI couldn’t be programmed to learn? Are you suggesting there is innate or intuitive knowledge we have that we couldn’t articulate impart to an ai?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351948)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:23 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

I wouldn’t call it knowledge, just a sort of epiphenomenalism of consciousness that informs the human experience and some of its endeavors. Whether that’s relevant to AI development - probably not. Maybe the goal is to eradicate the quirks of consciousness wholesale.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351964)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:28 PM
Author: theology is great

I don’t know you’re wrong but I really wanna know what those things are and whether they do more than give us just a semantic understanding of symbols that ai would lack but wouldn’t necessarily need.

Davidson’s a nice derangement of epitaphs might be relevant. Ai might ultimately lack true spontaneity. But we might be able to engineer spontaneity so well we can’t tell the difference.

You might be right that this makes ai asymptotic against true generality though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37352006)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:16 PM
Author: Pumonymous

why are you suggesting that subjective experience implies nonphysicality?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351907)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:17 PM
Author: theology is great

Because I’m not an idiot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351912)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:19 PM
Author: Pumonymous

More than twice as many philosophers support physicalism about the mind as support non-physicalism.

https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl

You, stroking your neckbeard: "I'm a non-physicalist because I'm not an idiot"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351926)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:21 PM
Author: theology is great

Is this your first day in philosophy or something guy? Youre asking me to put the fate of my soul in the hands of academic philosophers? You’re mad. I assure you anyone who winds of doing philosophybfor a living is precisely wrong about almost everything

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351956)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:23 PM
Author: Pumonymous

(Sane, high-IQ bro)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351965)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:17 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

Yeah that too

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351915)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:08 PM
Author: XIV

These are they key underlying questions that'll never be adequately addressed due to constraints on what the human mind can understand. Most of the discussion you see around AI taking over the world is usually just some academic trying to sell a book or an elaborate GC marketing scheme like Google's AlphaGo.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351848)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 12:50 AM
Author: "'"'"''"""


Why would these questions have to remain a mystery?

At a certain point, we will be able to map neural activity at a very fine level of detail. If you can find out what neurons are firing to cause people to talk about "subjective experience" the problem is basically solved. The hard problem isn't real unless you believe something magical occurs in the brain. Purely computational approaches like attention schema theory can account for consciousness and people's confusions when thinking about this topic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37352458)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 7:33 AM
Author: theology is great

Sup skinner

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37353013)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 3:57 PM
Author: "'"'"''"""


cognitivism isn't the same as behaviorism. internal brain states are worth investigating and trying to understand. qualia aren't real though. representationalist theories of mind make sense from a neuroscience perspective and seem to account for subjective experience.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355547)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 7:47 AM
Author: theology is great

Beyond retarted, skinner

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37359265)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:21 PM
Author: solace and wallace

False.

Attach 100 Einsteins (we'll have them thanks to genetic engineering) to a neural net connected to a supercomputer, and they''ll come up with an AI soon enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351952)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:03 PM
Author: H.R. Puffendorf

It doesn't matter. If it eats just 30% of blue and white collar jobs, society is screwed

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351804)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:03 PM
Author: Guy Debord

but the black guy on those microsoft commercials was telling me...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351806)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:16 PM
Author: Buck "The Club" Paulette



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351909)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 11:50 AM
Author: A Jurisprudence is Performed (Christmas)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37353960)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2018 11:14 PM
Author: Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman

Please tell me sex bots are a shorter term goal

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351890)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:21 PM
Author: Boomer Parable

but we only want low-IQ sexbots.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355722)



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Date: December 4th, 2018 11:16 PM
Author: no waste raw vegan

It's really just boomers planning on AI sex robots and the singularity

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351903)



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Date: December 4th, 2018 11:16 PM
Author: Taylor Swift was not a hobby she was a lifestyle

I agree

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351908)



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Date: December 4th, 2018 11:24 PM
Author: honiara

I'm afraid I can't do that Dave.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37351975)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 12:15 AM
Author: Upset Jew

Well for example Ray Kurzweil says that we will be able to model an entire human brain in real time with computational power reached in about 2029-30, only 11 or so years away. That being the case, if we can model full brains, as computing power continues to increase exponentially in the years hence, we'd then be able to model hundreds, thousands, millions at once. A 25-30 year timespan seems reasonable for achieving AGI and a marked change in history up until that point. Kurzweil says 2045. That's 26 years away.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37352318)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:52 PM
Author: Boomer Parable

We’re fucked.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355936)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 5:09 PM
Author: literal Marxist calling you a literal Nazi

Kurzweil is kind of an overly optimistic loony boomer, but moreso on human longevity issues than AI. This is driven by his burning desire to live forever and resurrect his dead father, which he freely admits. That said, the computational horsepower prediction is likely right

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37356044)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 11:56 PM
Author: Upset Jew

The thing is I get the criticism but I never see anyone be able to directly deny, factually, the things he asserts, or make counter arguments as convincing as the ones he posits. He seems to have a very good answer for most critiques.

Bottom line is I think we're about 25 years away from technology turning society into something the likes of which we've never seen before and into something fundamentally different.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37358437)



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Date: December 7th, 2018 4:11 PM
Author: "'"'"''"""


most people don't argue against his claims about where hardware capacity is likely to be in a few more years. it seems very probable we will have the computing power for AGI. the criticisms usually center on how long it will be before we have the necessary software for AGI. brain scanning technology is still very rudimentary and it could conceivably take a long time before we can download a complete connectome into a computer. there is accumulating evidence that de-novo AGI is an easier way to go, but it's hard to say how long that will take.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37368696)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 12:42 AM
Author: honiara

You're going to find that rather difficult without your space helmet Dave.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37352417)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 12:56 AM
Author: "'"'"''"""


The recent wave of progress in AI has nothing to do with complex scripting and everything to do with learning. We have gone beyond hand coding rule sets into fragile expert systems. Systems like AlphaZero or DQN could learn to work in many environments.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37352476)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 11:29 AM
Author: PhilosopherKing

The work has already been done for us by mother nature through the most complex thing in the universe--the human brain. True AI systems will most likely occur via some combination of whole-brain mapping and the application of global learning systems.

Development of high-resolution cellular brain-mapping technology is maybe a decade away. Developers already recognize that the era of hand-tailored scripting alone is drawing to a close.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37353868)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: Boomer Life-Coach Telling You To Accept Diversity

yes, when we can grow artificial organics with brains and teach them

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37353882)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 11:49 AM
Author: fscknut

When AGI happens, it will be an economic disaster at first. However, as people have increasing leisure time and less to contribute meaningfully to society, they'll start to get introspective and more religious.

Eventually, the world economy will look like the Antebellum South, with robots instead of slavery; a mega-rich capitalist ownership caste; and religious impulse driving charity to the proles.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37353954)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 12:52 PM
Author: wesley willis

This but the other way around. The humans will be the slaves.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354348)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 5:54 PM
Author: Boomer Parable



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37356325)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 11:51 AM
Author: honiara

do mainframes still exist? are they still made?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37353983)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 1:24 PM
Author: LathamTouchedMe

Too many people in this thread are relying on the human brain and that fuzzy term "consciousness" as the benchmarks for AGI or lesser AI. The brain is the product of many years of evolution (a messy process that rewards traits that lead to replication), not efficient engineering focused on modern tasks. The future of AI is not replicants, cyborgs, or recreations that mimic the processes of the human brain. It's a compilation of software that becomes the best at any narrow but very important task (driving, flying, investment advisor, accountant, legal researcher, medical diagnostic, surgeon, custodian, and eventually any other imaginable task assigned to it). These robots/apps won't need to act like humans to completely supplant humans in every imaginable activity or occupation.

The best example I've seen of AI bypassing the brain's more circuitous route was in Google Deepmind's video game play. In its first attempt at various classic games the AI looked like a retard (much worse than a human on his first try). But the AI "brute-forced" its way to becoming the best gamer ever, often employing techniques and strategies not seen before. Even if the human brain has the "intuition" to initially figure out the controls and learn and adapt, the AI brain could play the game 10 billion times in its "head" to figure out the optimal strategy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354601)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 1:29 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

And that's actually a detriment, at least to video game AI. It is easy to engineer an AI that is better than any human player. What's difficult is to create one that has human-like flaws and disadvantages, so that it can compete against a human without having a decidedly unfair advantage. That's why the fuzzier terms of the human brain are still important roadblocks, in my estimation.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354648)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 1:41 PM
Author: "'"'"''"""


in what domains do you think this is important?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354722)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 5:29 PM
Author: LathamTouchedMe

I only brought up the video game example to show that humans and AI think/compute differently. Just because AI will not be able to mimic the human brain for the foreseeable future does not mean AI won't be able to best humans in virtually every activity that we value.

It was not an easy task to create AI that becomes a video game champion when the AI does not have knowledge of the code in the game and isn't exploiting it. It had no unfair advantage. It was given the task of maximizing score and only "told" what each function in the game does (i.e. this makes the player go right, this makes the player shoot a gun). Like I said, the AI actually sucked ass when it initially played the games (much worse than your typical human) but eventually bested all humans.

Our brains are computers. They are weird and oddly "engineered" computers that have some "mystical" components to them that current AI is incapable of, but in other ways they are actually pretty shitty relative to current AI. Far too often people use the brain and our thought processes as the benchmark for determining whether AI is inferior. I think that's pointless.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37356182)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 2:09 AM
Author: "'"'"''"""


This is basically right, but i think it is important to note that the brute force reinforcement learning technique only works on problems where you have access to an environment simulator. It is easy for Google to run a few million atari games and try many possible neural network configurations. This works on just about every atari game (or board games, in the case of AlphaZero), but in many real world settings we don't have access to an environment simulator. Even if we did it would be extremely computationally expensive to run. We need advances in model-based RL and transfer learning before RL has a lot of practical uses. Progress is being made on those problems though, and it should accelerate as computing resources grow. I doubt AGI is very far away.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37358878)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 3:23 AM
Author: leo34

Dont even need real world. Starcraft II is a computer game that DeepMind created an API for, and it's still too complex.

They'll need some serious breakthroughs in AI/deep learning to make any progress.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37359029)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 9:09 PM
Author: "'"'"''"""


I am actually thinking Starcraft might be easy, or at least easier than most people think. OpenAI's DOTA 5v5 bot performed much better than I expected, and that was done using a simple model-free RL algorithm. They basically asked the question "what can you do with a really dumb algorithm and lots of computing power in a very complex environment?" It turns out you can do quite a lot. I think if Google plays around with the modern RL techniques long enough they will succeed with Starcraft. This will probably happen in 1-3 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37364088)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 9:21 PM
Author: leo34

Deepmind's team does just fine in mini-games too, which was what the DOTA match included. Beating mini-games or even very limited video games (like old Atari maps) is relatively "easy".

The full Starcraft 2 is just a different story. They don't even know where to start.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37364166)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 5:24 PM
Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.)

Lolled in my office at this absurd attempt to move the goalposts FORWARD.

**picks up wooden doorstop**

"As you can clearly see, this Intelligent Inclined Plane Machine is the *real genius* here; not humans! It has simply chosen to focus on becoming excellent at the narrow task of keeping doors open, while the wasteful human brain-- [(cough, cough, chortle)]-- runs in circles spending energy on things like consciousness, leisure, meaning, and all those other inefficiencies you call 'general intelligence.'"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37356154)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 1:26 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.


what an idiotic take. you don't need AI's that are completely human in order for AI to replace jobs.

also, AI hasn't been scripting and pathfinding for a long time. the entire field is about statistical learning these days. of course, you are right that full human ability and behavior may be centuries away, but generally you have no idea what you're talking about.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354622)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 1:32 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

I didn't say it could not replace jobs so fuck off pumo.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354665)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 1:33 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.


"Everybody talking about “A.I.” replacing jobs when it’s really just complex scripting and pathfinding."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354675)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 1:35 PM
Author: Oh, you travel?

now provide some examples of an artificial intelligence with deep learning that is currently implemented or on the verge of being implemented that will replace human workers, in the next 10 years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37354691)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:09 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.


speech transcription, medium-quality working translation services, transcription of handwritten text, and tons of other rote tasks that are often handled by human workers

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355637)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:10 PM
Author: leolenin

Lol at this childish rambling. Everything op said checks out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355642)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.


no it doesn't, it's a total load of shit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355686)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:21 PM
Author: leolenin

What are you so angry about?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355719)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:22 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,::,......:,.;,:.:.,:.::,.


don't like OP's mix of pomposity and retardation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355723)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:22 PM
Author: leolenin

Your height?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355727)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 9:53 PM
Author: diabolical degenerate shooting his goon (prince)

gotta agree with the pumo here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37357533)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 4:04 PM
Author: spritezero



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37355602)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 9:42 PM
Author: ....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,....,.,.,.,.....,.,.,.




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37357485)



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Date: December 5th, 2018 9:47 PM
Author: diabolical degenerate shooting his goon (prince)

thats all it was ever supposed to be. its just becoming really, really powerful. true artificial intelligence is not even proven that it can exist, let alone be implemented. its just sci fi at this point.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37357510)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 3:50 AM
Author: borders

As someone who's done research in the field of ML here's my humble take.

AI is a marketing term to build hype / sell products for the foreseeable future.

"Machine Learning" is just applied statistics.

Any talk of AGI is insanely premature - advances in ML applications gives us e.g. better facial recognition software, Alexa-type devices that work better, make self-driving cars more feasible due to higher image classification accuracy.

But these continued improvements in the accuracy of algorithms, e.g. "deep learning" hype - just improves devices and tech like described above - it doesn't fundamentally bring us close to AGI.

It's not like we have the structure of AGI mapped out and it's like oh damn - if only we could squeak out a 10% improvement in classification accuracy.... THEN this AGI would be working. No - the entire structure / mapping of AGI is insanely complex and requires large breakthroughs in several fields.

All the hype as of lately has been due to advances with several specific variations of neural networks which are specifically well suited to high dimensional ML problems with complex feature interactions (and outside of these specific applications they actually perform very poorly relative to "traditional" models or just say random forests or boosting methods / ensembles) - and these advances got tons of hype because they're useful for image classification problems which self-driving cars, facial recognition etc. all rely upon.

But the difference is we knew very well how to structure these problems then when the accuracy of the underlying ML algorithms improved enough these problems (e.g. self-driving cars) were feasible to put into application.

By contrast there's no such structure of AGI that I'm aware of that we're just waiting around for some improvements to take place which will allow us to solve AGI.

The problem of AGI is far more fundamental - it's not a matter of algorithm performance, it's that we don't even know what to do.

If someone more on the AI side (I'm on the statistics / ML side) wants to tell me I'm mistaken I'm more than willing to listen......

edit: In terms of automation / job replacement - you don't need anything remotely close to AGI / AI, those terms are pure marketing terms in the corporate world. To automate jobs - say a chatbot that helps you with customer service - you simply need sufficient accuracy of the algorithms. All these products that can replace people's jobs are remarkably simple in structure and are just using applied stats / NLP bundled together in some software product being sold as "AI". Automation of jobs will continue to happen even when true AI stays far beyond the horizon - because to automate many jobs you just need a few algorithms and a bit of engineering. This is counter-intuitively actually a sign that we're far away from true AI - because companies are building highly specialized domain-specific products to automate processes for companies. Any guess on when true AI becomes possible is worthless IMO.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37359074)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 8:59 AM
Author: biological rape weapon (GROW IT BIG)

100% CR. I understand what OP and many poasters are getting at though. It's obvious the popular ML explosion is BS and not a real advance. It's cool that any idiot can use scikit-learn or tensor-flow for simple applications, but boy is it annoying to have 100 million AI "experts" who don't know anything beyond a tutorial series or kaggle

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37359432)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:23 AM
Author: PhilosopherKing

Thank you. I think those of us who are essentially epiphenomenalists concerning consciousness have a different set of beliefs for human-level AI and consciousness, though.

Some people, including myself, think that there is no free will. We also believe that what we call human consciousness is really a processing hallucination that is generated epiphenomenally once neurons hit a certain level of complexity in broadly adaptive skill sets.

For these people, they (and I) believe that human-level or "true" AI will inevitably occur. At some point in the near future we will hit on nonbiological complex neural development (probably through a combination of whole brain emulation and planned broad learning, TBH). When we do so, what we consider "consciousness" of some type will appear to manifest in that AI. And that will be an epiphenomenal hallucination on the part of the poor little AI, in much the same way as we suffer out own hallucination of consciousness, and of agency in others.

In the end, who knows, though. We could all be wrong. And this viewpoint seems to defy common sense. But it is basically where the neuroscience appears to take us at present.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37360199)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:27 AM
Author: cannon

"We also believe that what we call human consciousness is really a processing hallucination"

Can you explain this more? What exactly is the "individual" having this hallucination?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37360231)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:35 AM
Author: PhilosopherKing

Very hard for me to do! I'm not that deft at explaining such things directly, nor are my own thoughts especially clear on the subject. It is a difficult subject for me. I think some experience w meditation is helpful in getting the necessary perspective on subjective mental processes though.

This gentleman has some interesting work on the subject of consciousness as hallucination. https://aeon.co/essays/the-hard-problem-of-consciousness-is-a-distraction-from-the-real-one

Here is an interesting video on point, nice and simple:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyu7v7nWzfo



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37360288)



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Date: December 6th, 2018 11:24 AM
Author: 1st Ballot Wigger Hall of Famer

Bull. Shit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149157&forum_id=2#37360207)