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Why shouldn’t I aggressively short weed stocks at current valuations?

I expect 0 thoughtful analysis from xoxo but morbidly curiou...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
the optics of this industry are often not perceivable & ...
intro pic dk
  12/05/18
This is not an actionable statement friend. I accept and emb...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
from a consumer goods industry perspective, i imagine it wil...
thots & prayers
  12/05/18
I think it’ll be impossible for weed guys to build bra...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
Staggeringly dumb
"""''''''''"'''
  12/05/18
Good point I’m convinced
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
dude. weed. lmao
Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman
  12/05/18
...
libcrusher180
  12/05/18
So yes? I’ll be sure to smoke a massive celebratory bl...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
Whoops forgot xoxo finance is limited to opinions on &ldquo...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
Altria is trying to buy them so the stocks squeeze all the t...
DrakeMallard
  12/05/18
Yep all good points. Discovered the last one just now - impl...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
Continuing legalization in various jurisdictions could facil...
Royall Jenkins
  12/05/18
Professional trader here. I know people who have made career...
Mormon missionary (only posts on WSHH and xo)
  12/05/18
Cr
DrakeMallard
  12/05/18
What are you watching this week Love this breakout in EHT...
Mormon missionary (only posts on WSHH and xo)
  12/05/18
...
libcrusher180
  12/05/18
Of course man. I also hate Tesla but still realize shorting ...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
Bro $tsla is going to the moon its so fucking obvious. I'm t...
Mormon missionary (only posts on WSHH and xo)
  12/05/18
market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent,...
spritezero
  12/05/18
Even in a rising interest rate environment with slowing grow...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
sounds like u wanna do it. do it
spritezero
  12/05/18
Lol it seems too expensive sadly. Too many others agree with...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/05/18
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/a2te9a/all_...
Mormon missionary (only posts on WSHH and xo)
  12/05/18
NBEV was so 2 months ago
libcrusher180
  12/05/18
You are a little late to the party. Air has already started ...
and when i started to squeeze the bar brother
  12/05/18
Mj already down 8% pre-market. Lmao at this fraud.
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  12/06/18
I bought APHA 2.50 jul 19 put today just for fun
and when i started to squeeze the bar brother
  12/06/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


I expect 0 thoughtful analysis from xoxo but morbidly curious about opinions. Note that my reference to “current valuations” means some vapid qualitative points will sound totally retarded. Maybe say why current prices make sense given the size of the total addressable market or whatever?

I’m about to buy lots of puts on this fuckery (likely on the MJ ETF) unless someone convinces me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37355742)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 4:31 PM
Author: intro pic dk

the optics of this industry are often not perceivable & intuitive to the average investor due to unseen forces from regional historical influences resulting from extended prohibition

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37355791)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 4:49 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


This is not an actionable statement friend. I accept and embrace the uncertainty.

Personally I think weed will at best become a laughably commoditized, super competitive, over-taxed and over regulated good with imperceptible profit margins. It’s fucking weed.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37355909)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:26 PM
Author: thots & prayers

from a consumer goods industry perspective, i imagine it will be somewhat stratified the same way beer or spirits is but i agree building brand equity will be hard and take big dollars

the difference to alcohol, i think, is that you have a parallel medical marijuana industry which will effectively be non-branded and thus as you say, highly commoditized.

how these two industries - consumer and medical - coexist, and how suppliers manage the different demands of the two, will be very telling and informative of the overall industry's future

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356170)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:37 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


I think it’ll be impossible for weed guys to build brand equity in a manner similar to the alcohol market. They can probably extract higher value from new/innovative ways to consume (eg vaping) but even that’ll be temporary probably.

Also the black market will still exist . People that sell great weed without massive legal/regulatory overhead will continue to undercut mainstream players on price.

Toss in the fact that we’re entering a recession and I feel pretty good about this bet



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356238)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:33 PM
Author: """''''''''"''' ( )


Staggeringly dumb

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356211)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:40 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


Good point I’m convinced

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356257)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 4:32 PM
Author: Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman

dude. weed. lmao

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37355795)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 4:32 PM
Author: libcrusher180 (😎)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37355796)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 4:46 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


So yes? I’ll be sure to smoke a massive celebratory blunt if i win this trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37355884)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:21 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


Whoops forgot xoxo finance is limited to opinions on “is $100 eth credited??”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356129)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:23 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)

Altria is trying to buy them so the stocks squeeze all the time

You can't get borrow on TLRY which is the one you should probably short

Put options are insanely expensive



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356146)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:24 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


Yep all good points. Discovered the last one just now - implied volatility for literally every option is 100%+. Fuck that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356159)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:24 PM
Author: Royall Jenkins

Continuing legalization in various jurisdictions could facilitate ongoing irrational exuberance for longer than you can afford to maintain your position.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356158)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:30 PM
Author: Mormon missionary (only posts on WSHH and xo)

Professional trader here. I know people who have made careers shorting this kinda shit

That being said, unless you have direct access to the market, consistent access to shorts, and do this full time DO NOT SHORT THE EQUITY. You are not unique or smart. These stocks have tiny floats and insane short interest. They can, and will, gap up 20% on you. You stand to make ~50% in this trade if you are right. The strong hand longs stand to make 500% if they are right. Be careful plz

I also just bought some $Seed yesterday fwiw

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356192)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:32 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)

Cr



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356204)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:36 PM
Author: Mormon missionary (only posts on WSHH and xo)

What are you watching this week

Love this breakout in EHTH it's making my month..... Got some PCG at $22....watching AZO... Missed out on easy as fuck NDLS short and sold my AAPL puts wayyyyy too early like a bitch

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356227)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:37 PM
Author: libcrusher180 (😎)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356237)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:40 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


Of course man. I also hate Tesla but still realize shorting either directly is a suicide mission. I’m trying to use puts but...these crowded trades are so expensive that it feels like I should look elsewhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356254)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:47 PM
Author: Mormon missionary (only posts on WSHH and xo)

Bro $tsla is going to the moon its so fucking obvious. I'm trying so hard to be patient on this one

I can give you a list of other non weed bullshit companies to short but if your dedicated to this trade (and I respect that) my advise is to wait for the scariest time to short (3pm on a green day) and start covering your position into the close everyday thereafter

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356295)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:41 PM
Author: spritezero

market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, is the old saying

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356259)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:43 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


Even in a rising interest rate environment with slowing growth? It’s harder to be stupid about your money when it costs more

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356269)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:44 PM
Author: spritezero

sounds like u wanna do it. do it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356274)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:45 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


Lol it seems too expensive sadly. Too many others agree with me...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356280)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:48 PM
Author: Mormon missionary (only posts on WSHH and xo)

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/a2te9a/all_in_nbev_yolo/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356304)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 5:50 PM
Author: libcrusher180 (😎)

NBEV was so 2 months ago

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37356311)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 5th, 2018 9:56 PM
Author: and when i started to squeeze the bar brother (http://youtu.be/sqLsqHctThU)

You are a little late to the party. Air has already started to leak out...CGC and TLRY down from highs. Look at Aphria...this is what happens the minute someone starts to prick this balloon. Fraudscam industry.

TLRY collapsing is such a "sure bet" that I'm sure something will happen to fuck it up. Something will happen. That being said the only options that were reasonably priced like a month ago were the $28 and $20 puts for March 15 which is a looooong way down but I will roll the dice with a small bet. Stranger things have happened. At one point the $28 put had already doubled but I figured it can go further before March if TLRY continues to see pressure so I will just hold. January will be the test when the IPO lockup expires.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37357558)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 9:26 AM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


Mj already down 8% pre-market. Lmao at this fraud.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37359543)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 6th, 2018 9:33 PM
Author: and when i started to squeeze the bar brother (http://youtu.be/sqLsqHctThU)

I bought APHA 2.50 jul 19 put today just for fun

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4149692&forum_id=2#37364234)