What is Trump's best case 2020 scenario?
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Date: July 16th, 2019 5:10 PM Author: big-titted saffron messiness orchestra pit
In terms of election result.
I think his upside is 338 electoral votes: his 2016 states plus all of ME, NH, MN, NV, CO. There is no scenario where Trump can flip OR, NM, VA.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4304161&forum_id=2#38541682) |
Date: July 16th, 2019 6:11 PM Author: supple umber shitlib forum
I think his core states are all of his 2016 wins except the (Blue Wall of MN, WI, MI, PA). (Arizona and Florida are safe enough for him.) This starts him at 260, as he won't have faithless electors this time.
He probably keeps:
Michigan (16 votes)
Wisconsin (10 votes)
Either gets him to 270. Combined gets him to 286.
I think he adds:
Maine statewide (2 votes, but not the dem district's other 1 vote)
Nevada (6 votes)
New Hampshire (4 votes)
This gets him to 298.
His Upside atm:
Colorado (9 votes)
Minnesota (10 votes)
New Mexico (5 votes)
Pennsylvania (20 votes)
Virginia (13 votes)
Thus, President Trump has a pretty viable road to 355.
In a landslide night he gets Maine 1st district's extra 1 vote. If he decides to campaign in Oregon, he could also pick up those 7 votes. 363.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4304161&forum_id=2#38542003) |
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Date: July 16th, 2019 8:09 PM Author: big-titted saffron messiness orchestra pit
-Maine has 4 electoral votes, so if he wins just ME-02 he gets 1 vote. If he wins both districts, that obviously means he won the entire state, so he would get all 4.
-If he wins MI, he most likely wins PA as well.
-NM is a fantasy. The state is like 45% latino.
-VA is becoming like CA. Since W Bush's win there in 2004, the only Republican to win in either presidential, governor, or senate race, was McDonnell in 09 in a low turnout election. NOVA has too many liberal whites, Asians, Arabs.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4304161&forum_id=2#38542572)
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