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Warren seems to be done here. Also, BUTTIGIEG now leads in NH
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:08 AM Author: Useless Concupiscible Step-uncle's House Party Of The First Part interesting new polls
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ |
Date: December 11th, 2019 11:11 AM Author: Federal cream gaming laptop Pete's future is so bright he has to wear shades
https://queerty-prodweb.s3.amazonaws.com/2019/04/pete-buttigieg-sunglasses.png
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:12 AM Author: Useless Concupiscible Step-uncle's House Party Of The First Part what a dork (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247558) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:22 AM Author: flesh church Just realized: he's Michael Dukakis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247633) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:18 AM Author: Crystalline whorehouse The entire Iowa caucus will come down to second choices, which is already lulzy as fuck, but we can assume with 95+% certainty that Bernie and Warren supporters will be each other’s second choice votes, so the whole question is how Biden and Buttgag voters second choices break down. If a big enough number go for Bernie or Warren then whichever of them that gets those second choice votes will win Iowa and that will probably help them take from the other and do well in NH and the same momentum/dynamic likely plays out in the NV caucuses. Chances are one of Warren or Bernie is still the “leader” going into SC, which is considerably devalued with Super Tuesday starting less than 48 hours after most people will see the SC results. The whole thing is setting up pretty well for Bernie. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247603) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:19 AM Author: Useless Concupiscible Step-uncle's House Party Of The First Part holy shit 180 BERNIE 2020 I BELIEVE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247613) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:23 AM Author: Exhilarant address clown This isn't what polling has shown. Biden and Bernie's bases overlap quite a bit in the whiter states, just as Warren's and Pete's bases overlap. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247637) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:32 AM Author: Crystalline whorehouse Please show us your detailed precinct by precinct Iowa breakdown, Mike Schmul. I'm sure this is true in Des Moines and Iowa City i.e. that Buttigieg could clean up in the major metro areas where news junkie UMCs will caucus, but I can't imagine anyone has a great idea of how the second rounds will go across the rest of the state, and that typically comes down to who had the best field operation. Bernie had the built in advantage of an existing supporter base that won Iowa last time, and he also has the most money. It's not unreasonable to think he's going to overperform with second choices given all of these built in advantages. He also has a great shot to be the "anybody but Pete" candidate in all places that Biden can't get to 15%, and Biden has famously had shit fundraising and organizing. My guess right now is Bernie/Pete are close 1-2 and Biden and Warren are a distant 3-4, with a decent chance that Warren drops after getting trounced in NH, though she may have the money to hang on until getting trounced on Super Tuesday. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247685) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:34 AM Author: Exhilarant address clown https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voters-second-choice-candidates-show-a-race-that-is-still-fluid/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247701) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:42 AM Author: Crystalline whorehouse I'm confused what you're arguing now. You're saying no Buttgag votes will go to Bernie? The biggest prizes for second places for Bernie are Biden and Warren, because Buttgag and Sanders are 1-2 right now. Link shows Bernie leading Buttgag for Biden and Warren second choices 2:1 and Warren's polling drop has just started in the last couple weeks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247761) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:26 AM Author: talking vigorous site pistol But the polling shows the non-woke candidates grabbing a clear plurality or majority of the vote. If each wing coalesces around a candidate, the Warren/Sanders progressives won't have enough to win Iowa or NH. And once they move to the south, they're done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247654) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:34 AM Author: Crystalline whorehouse My point is that if Bernie gets a bunch of second choice votes from Biden and/or Pete he has hidden strength. And he has the most money and the best ground game and super high name ID. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247707) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:19 AM Author: curious school cafeteria people who are hurt https://youtu.be/zAXRFtov3ZU (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247607) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:19 AM Author: honey-headed razzle-dazzle senate warren was a 0 charisma garbage candidate since day 1 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247612) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:20 AM Author: Useless Concupiscible Step-uncle's House Party Of The First Part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247616) |
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Date: December 11th, 2019 11:35 AM Author: curious school cafeteria people who are hurt Pete is done here. McKinsey stuff + blacks is gonna kill him. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4399109&forum_id=2#39247712) |