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Stanford medical profs: fraud virus death rates are FLAME

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? Current estimates...
Non sequitur
  03/24/20
we here on xo already did this analysis and came with the co...
prince
  03/24/20
Antibody testing of representative samples to measure diseas...
Drunkard
  03/24/20
if it turns out the fatality rate is similar to the flu, som...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  03/24/20
It’s preposterous that this has not been done.
Drunkard
  03/24/20
...
Non sequitur
  03/24/20
...
bat dood
  03/24/20
...
poa
  03/24/20
It's the tax payer that will pay (i.e., all of us). Always.
JamesPence
  03/24/20
...
.,.,.,,.,.,..,.,.
  03/25/20
Spoiler: it is
Wilbat Mercer
  03/25/20
fraudvirus is fraud
fraudvirus
  03/25/20
...
Non sequitur
  03/25/20
...
prince
  03/25/20
bump next week when NYC is in flames
'""""'"
  03/24/20
This is known as a win-win.
There's always a link in SF
  03/25/20
...
Morbidly Obese Sex Robot
  03/25/20
...
bat dood
  03/24/20
(((Eran Bendavid)))
Covid Ben Gurion
  03/24/20
leave it to jews and indians to talk some sense into hysteri...
poa
  03/24/20
Good thing NY is basically discontinuing testing. That will ...
From a Boomer Bathhouse on the Hill
  03/24/20
"In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the govern...
KamalaAintSexy
  03/24/20
Sounds normal to me. You think only 12% of the country is i...
Leftism is a mental disease
  03/24/20
i have been saying this for days now...but i don't think thi...
NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder
  03/24/20
Interesting that their number comes out to about 0.06 - that...
..............;...................
  03/24/20
!!1
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  03/24/20
...
Non sequitur
  03/24/20
it's probably somewhere between .5% and 3% in advanced count...
SomeOtherGhost
  03/24/20
Italy has been coding all dead people with the virus as havi...
JamesPence
  03/24/20
in most cases it's probably not a coincidence that they came...
SomeOtherGhost
  03/24/20
Hospital infections are really common. When people are ol...
JamesPence
  03/24/20
If you died in a car accident and tested poz, that's marked ...
Hitler Did Nothing Wrong
  03/24/20
They aren't going to test a dead car accident victim for cov...
From a Boomer Bathhouse on the Hill
  03/24/20
If you died driving home from your covid swab, yes they'll s...
Hitler Did Nothing Wrong
  03/25/20
LMAO. Sure they will bro
From a Boomer Bathhouse on the Hill
  03/25/20
lol
Such anathema to us!
  03/25/20
don't even address south korea's potential cfr of around 1.5...
SomeOtherGhost
  03/24/20
if a boat of all decrepit olds was 1%, the overall rate must...
.....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,
  03/24/20
if it was half that adjusted for age with sufficient care re...
SomeOtherGhost
  03/24/20
what is really important to know is what percentage of INFEC...
NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder
  03/24/20
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8149447/Diamond-Pri...
SomeOtherGhost
  03/24/20
can we review the cruise ship data? As i recall the averag...
NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder
  03/24/20
...
Drunkard
  03/24/20
Johns Hopkins guy on Sam Harris adjusted cruise ship to U.S....
..............;...................
  03/24/20
as i've said, that could still result in disaster (hundreds ...
SomeOtherGhost
  03/24/20
this article is arguing that the 20% figure is flame that...
invoke the "p"
  03/24/20
how often do so many major cities end up running critically ...
SomeOtherGhost
  03/25/20
Blame private equity ownership. They are not going to spring...
.....................:......:::.......;...........
  03/25/20
if iceland which doesn't have as much traffic to china as US...
invoke the "p"
  03/24/20
I bet we have caught 1% of covid cases so far.
Tim Daotua
  03/25/20
Even That broad of testing still suffers from selection bias...
borders
  03/25/20
...
JamesPence
  03/24/20
Iran supports this as well- they should have hundreds of tho...
....,...,.,.,......................,..,.
  03/24/20
solid point
bat dood
  03/24/20
...
bowlcut autist
  03/25/20
fraudvirus is fraud, its obvious to anyone with at least hal...
fraudvirus
  03/25/20
...
donald draper
  03/25/20
Maybe fraudvirus kills lib brain cells
Non sequitur
  03/25/20
So is the implication basically that massive amounts of peop...
.....................:......:::.......;...........
  03/25/20
It’s that there are many, many more people who were/ar...
Drunkard
  03/25/20
yes basically i think the culprit is mostly that it sprea...
invoke the "p"
  03/25/20
why is no one doing an antibody sample?
.....................:......:::.......;...........
  03/25/20
No reliable test yet
.,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,:,.,.:..:.,:,::,.
  03/25/20
That and people can't seem to understand that Italy has a re...
borders
  03/25/20
Another interesting thing is that Milan doesn't have many ca...
,,..,,,.,:;,..::,,....,:,..,:,,..:.,:.:,.
  03/25/20
Yes, in hotspots everyone has it. They have stopped testing ...
Tim Daotua
  03/25/20
What if all the people in the hospital are just fighting the...
Starving Autist
  03/25/20
What if...what if...we were the virus all along?
Tim Daotua
  03/25/20
What evidence is there of that?
.....................:......:::.......;...........
  03/25/20
the ones in the hospital are likely those who received a hea...
NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder
  03/25/20
Doesnt it reproduce inside the body
Frank Lloyd Wrong (retired)
  03/25/20
of course it does, but it is also clear that the quantity of...
NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder
  03/25/20
It is far more common to see mutations into less severe stra...
borders
  03/25/20
Bort resident epidemiology experts, your response?
.;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,
  03/25/20
That comports with the computer model I linked to a few days...
LathamTouchedMe
  03/25/20
one of the few reasonable posts you've ever made
fraudvirus
  03/25/20
Why were Chinese deaths so concentrated in Wuhan only then, ...
Such anathema to us!
  03/25/20
China was playing lots of games with the numbers. They would...
NOWAG screaming N-word at NYC Hasidic children
  03/25/20
...
So we looked at the data
  03/25/20
Nationwide lockdown halted the spread.
,,..,,,.,:;,..::,,....,:,..,:,,..:.,:.:,.
  03/25/20
"Eran Bendavid" "Jay Bhattacharya" and &...
A Jurisprudence is Performed
  03/25/20
this is what real Americans want to hear, shitlib
poa
  03/25/20
no doubt the decades-long propoganda campaign has been remar...
A Jurisprudence is Performed
  03/25/20
The crush on hospitals is why this is such a big deal. They ...
.,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,:,.,.:..:.,:,::,.
  03/25/20
OP is in day 10 of acute BRUNCH withdrawal and won't listen ...
A Jurisprudence is Performed
  03/25/20
Overwhelm the thythtem he lisped
Non sequitur
  03/25/20
Such a lame response.
.,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,:,.,.:..:.,:,::,.
  03/25/20
...
donny
  03/25/20
Bump for day crew
.....................:......:::.......;...........
  03/25/20
Don't show this to the histrionic poasters here
.;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,
  03/25/20
...
fraudvirus
  03/25/20
...
Non sequitur
  03/26/20


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:25 PM
Author: Non sequitur

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

By Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya

March 24, 2020 6:21 pm ET

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TEXT

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A line at an emergency room in Brooklyn, N.Y., March 19.

PHOTO: ANDREW KELLY/REUTERS

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

Why the Coronavirus Relief Bill Stalled

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The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.

In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.

The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.

How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.

The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

Dr. Bendavid and Dr. Bhattacharya are professors of medicine at Stanford. Neeraj Sood contributed to this article

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856493)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:30 PM
Author: prince

we here on xo already did this analysis and came with the conclusion a long time ago.

heck, trump already knows all this. not to mention there is a cure already in sight, it just has to be approved and shipped.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856523)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:34 PM
Author: Drunkard (πŸ₯ƒ)

Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial.

NO SHIT

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856546)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:35 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


if it turns out the fatality rate is similar to the flu, someone must pay. dearly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856561)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:38 PM
Author: Drunkard (πŸ₯ƒ)

It’s preposterous that this has not been done.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856583)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:39 PM
Author: Non sequitur



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856597)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:45 PM
Author: bat dood (πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ πŸ¦‡ 🦠 🦠 🦠 🀑 🌎 😷 😒 πŸ’€ )



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856625)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:49 PM
Author: poa



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856654)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:52 PM
Author: JamesPence

It's the tax payer that will pay (i.e., all of us). Always.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856679)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 4:23 AM
Author: .,.,.,,.,.,..,.,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857626)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:17 AM
Author: Wilbat Mercer (Krugerrand)

Spoiler: it is

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856885)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:08 AM
Author: fraudvirus

fraudvirus is fraud

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856807)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:14 AM
Author: Non sequitur



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856864)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:23 AM
Author: prince



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856910)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:32 PM
Author: '""""'"

bump next week when NYC is in flames

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856535)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 7:43 PM
Author: There's always a link in SF

This is known as a win-win.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39863293)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 10:45 PM
Author: Morbidly Obese Sex Robot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39864468)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:33 PM
Author: bat dood (πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ πŸ¦‡ 🦠 🦠 🦠 🀑 🌎 😷 😒 πŸ’€ )



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856540)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:33 PM
Author: Covid Ben Gurion (✑️)

(((Eran Bendavid)))

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856541)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:39 PM
Author: poa

leave it to jews and indians to talk some sense into hysterical goys

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856594)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:35 PM
Author: From a Boomer Bathhouse on the Hill (πŸ¦… β’»β“Šβ’Έβ“€ β“β’Ύβ’·β“ˆ πŸ¦…)

Good thing NY is basically discontinuing testing. That will really clear things up.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856558)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:35 PM
Author: KamalaAintSexy

"In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28"

JFC, in less than a month 1% of the entire country was infected.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856560)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:48 PM
Author: Leftism is a mental disease

Sounds normal to me. You think only 12% of the country is infected with flu ever year?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856650)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:36 PM
Author: NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder

i have been saying this for days now...but i don't think this message is going to get out to the general public any time soon...for one, the media is driven by web algorithms to a great extent...so the public interest is going to push the story...and this idea of infection rates being much higher is a little too complex for the media to give much attention to...too complex for the lowest common denominator media approach...

plus, the Dems are going to push the story because it helps them...and the media will go along to some extent...

but I LOVE the stock market crash, and I LOVE the fulltime telework, so I hope the scary, but likely false, propaganda keeps getting pushed....



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856565)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:37 PM
Author: ..............;...................


Interesting that their number comes out to about 0.06 - that's exactly what the guy at Johns Hopkins came up with after analyzing the cruise ship data.

It's almost like that's a better number than using the sample of 70 year old people showing up at the er coughing up blood.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856569)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:39 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


!!1

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856592)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:40 PM
Author: Non sequitur



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856599)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:41 PM
Author: SomeOtherGhost

it's probably somewhere between .5% and 3% in advanced countries with sufficient care resources. the problem is that even if the cfr is around .5% in those circumstances, it can be driven much much higher if there aren't sufficient care resources. that's why italy has been a disaster, and we might well see the same very very soon in spain and certain cities in the us soon.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856604)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:43 PM
Author: JamesPence

Italy has been coding all dead people with the virus as having died from it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856615)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:46 PM
Author: SomeOtherGhost

in most cases it's probably not a coincidence that they came down dead after catching the virus.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856628)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:51 PM
Author: JamesPence

Hospital infections are really common.

When people are old and immunocompromised, it's easier for them to catch anything.

This was posted earlier, quoting an advisor to italys minister of health.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/amp/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856674)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:51 PM
Author: Hitler Did Nothing Wrong

If you died in a car accident and tested poz, that's marked as a covid death. Ditto olds with stage 4 cancer already on palliative care. It's incidental, complete flame. Performance art by the elites to laugh at the goyim scurrying while they watch from their bunkers in NZ.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856678)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:58 PM
Author: From a Boomer Bathhouse on the Hill (πŸ¦… β’»β“Šβ’Έβ“€ β“β’Ύβ’·β“ˆ πŸ¦…)

They aren't going to test a dead car accident victim for covid

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856715)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:00 AM
Author: Hitler Did Nothing Wrong

If you died driving home from your covid swab, yes they'll still run it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856730)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:08 AM
Author: From a Boomer Bathhouse on the Hill (πŸ¦… β’»β“Šβ’Έβ“€ β“β’Ύβ’·β“ˆ πŸ¦…)

LMAO. Sure they will bro

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856804)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:54 AM
Author: Such anathema to us! (as The Americans)

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857094)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:37 PM
Author: SomeOtherGhost

don't even address south korea's potential cfr of around 1.5% or the cfr of about 1% on the cruise ship where there was widespread testing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856576)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:38 PM
Author: .....,,.....,,.....,,.................,,,


if a boat of all decrepit olds was 1%, the overall rate must far lower

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856582)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:44 PM
Author: SomeOtherGhost

if it was half that adjusted for age with sufficient care resources, it could be a very big problem without sufficient care resources. just going from memory, but the infection rate was huge, as was the rate of infect persons who needed some kind of intensive care.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856618)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:47 PM
Author: NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder

what is really important to know is what percentage of INFECTED were sick enough to need to seek care...that is what I want to know...and to really start on that analysis we need to know what % of the population is infected to start with...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856646)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:53 PM
Author: SomeOtherGhost

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8149447/Diamond-Princess-cruise-ship-passengers-crew-coronavirus-asymptomatic.html

about 10% it looks like. given how readily the illness spreads absent controls, and limitations on medical resources at any given time, i think you can see how that could easily become a big problem right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856690)



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Date: March 24th, 2020 11:39 PM
Author: NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder

can we review the cruise ship data?

As i recall the average age of the passengers was really high

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856590)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:42 PM
Author: Drunkard (πŸ₯ƒ)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856610)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:47 PM
Author: ..............;...................


Johns Hopkins guy on Sam Harris adjusted cruise ship to U.S. population and said it would be something between like 0.05 and 0.6

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856639)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:50 PM
Author: SomeOtherGhost

as i've said, that could still result in disaster (hundreds of thousands or millions dead) if we're not able to provide adequate care based on individual patient need. if memory serves, like 20% of the ill required some kind of intensive care. so what happens if half the country catches this over the next few months?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856668)



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Date: March 24th, 2020 11:56 PM
Author: invoke the "p"

this article is arguing that the 20% figure is flame

thats the crux of the whole article

if you assume 20% of infected require some kind of hospitalization then we need to shut down for a couple of months

but the article is showing that real number of infections is like 60x of confirmed cases in which hospitalization rate is only 1% and can be easily handled except for hotspots like NYC.

basically it all comes down to this. we have 55K confirmed cases. how many were totally infected? MSM hysteria assumes only around 400K~600K were infected. this guys is saying its like 4M~6M already

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856701)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:02 AM
Author: SomeOtherGhost

how often do so many major cities end up running critically low on care resources at the same time? part of the problem presumably is that we often just don't have that much excess slack. but we've had cities that are already overrun, or appear to be on the verge of it. in just the us, we've already heard what seem to be credible reports that we're on the verge of trouble in places like nyc and detroit and new orleans.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856755)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:19 AM
Author: .....................:......:::.......;...........


Blame private equity ownership. They are not going to spring for the costs of keeping tons of emergency supplies on hand

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856893)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:48 PM
Author: invoke the "p"

if iceland which doesn't have as much traffic to china as US had 1% of the population infected by end of feb we should be at around 2% by now easy in late march. lot more seeding due to yuge number of chinese travellers in dec/jan and our first case was detected much earlier than iceland

being very conservative and assuming we have captured only 25% of covid deaths by now (maybe lot covid deaths of old ppl in jan/early feb were never tested for covid and thought of as regular flu???)

so roughly 7M cases and 3500 deaths by very conservative estimate gives us 0.05% mortality rate

iceland study is very interesting. wonder if that holds true for US

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856651)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:35 AM
Author: Tim Daotua

I bet we have caught 1% of covid cases so far.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856989)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 7:38 PM
Author: borders

Even That broad of testing still suffers from selection bias, and crude / naive CFR calculations are always biased upwards in that regard.

eg https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7

Because both of your examples are extremely consistent with the lower estimates of eg 0.5-0.8% - in SK, yes they did widespread testing but there's still selection bias, ie the selection mechanism into getting tested is based on more severe cases / symptoms, - because if you're completely asymptomatic or very mild symptoms, you don't have an incentive to go get medical help like you do if you're very severe, so the testing , although much more widespread and so lower than the 3% cfr elsewhere, is still missing asymptomatic / very mild cases.

The diamond princess cruise ship - ~1% sCFR , is actually cause for optimism, because this group of people skews so overwhelmingly older on the ship, 1% is less than the estimates for CFR of eg 65+ of something like 1.4% in that paper I linked above.

All of those examples we see observationally are still biasing the CFR upwards whether due to age group of selection into testing, see eg the paper linked above or

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39863259)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2020 11:41 PM
Author: JamesPence



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856603)



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Date: March 24th, 2020 11:44 PM
Author: ....,...,.,.,......................,..,.


Iran supports this as well- they should have hundreds of thousands of dead by now.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856621)



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Date: March 24th, 2020 11:46 PM
Author: bat dood (πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ πŸ¦‡ 🦠 🦠 🦠 🀑 🌎 😷 😒 πŸ’€ )

solid point

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856629)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:02 AM
Author: bowlcut autist



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856746)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:04 AM
Author: fraudvirus

fraudvirus is fraud, its obvious to anyone with at least half a braincell. which is apparently very few people

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856770)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:15 AM
Author: donald draper (Beer Like Water. Drugs Like Candy. Women Like Tissue.)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856865)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:16 AM
Author: Non sequitur

Maybe fraudvirus kills lib brain cells

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856877)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:17 AM
Author: .....................:......:::.......;...........


So is the implication basically that massive amounts of people in Italy

have it and the mass deaths are solely due to hospital overcrowded ness and not disease potency?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856882)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:26 AM
Author: Drunkard (πŸ₯ƒ)

It’s that there are many, many more people who were/are infected so the denominator is much larger. Layered onto the other issues they have, one of which is capacity.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856938)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:32 AM
Author: invoke the "p"

yes basically

i think the culprit is mostly that it spread much much faster in northern italy than anywhere except maybe wuhan or NYC. basically they have an outlier R0 due to large chinese population, social customs like hugging/kissing, multiple generations living together

so R0 of italy is like 4 or 5 vs 2 everywhere. this overwhelmed their hospital capacity plus their older smoking demographic has lead to 8% death rate among confirmed cases

i wont be shocked if like 20% of population of northern italy has already been infected. NYC is heading that way

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856966)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:45 AM
Author: .....................:......:::.......;...........


why is no one doing an antibody sample?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857046)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 6:00 AM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,:,.,.:..:.,:,::,.


No reliable test yet

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857704)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 7:35 PM
Author: borders

That and people can't seem to understand that Italy has a relatively large sick and dying population anyways, and even in terms of absolute deaths, it's only so overwhelming because the media is cataloguing it in such painstaking detail, when thousands of deaths could've just as easily gone unnoticed there or been attributed to bad flu season etc.

I'll try to dig it up, I saw someone on twitter post an analysis of the time series of deaths in Italy every March, and as we know an overwhelming proportion of those deaths are people with comorbidities and 80+ (literally only 3 people, 0.8%, in the study linked on bloomberg had no previous disease ,

"Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions.

More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease.")

And this analysis (i'll try to find it again) showed that Italy's deaths for March really aren't anomalous , which is a suggestion that maybe it's just moving cause of death from column A to column B, consistent with recent prevalence estimates and other analyses about how hospitals are huge vectors for these infections...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39863244)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 8:02 PM
Author: ,,..,,,.,:;,..::,,....,:,..,:,,..:.,:.:,.


Another interesting thing is that Milan doesn't have many cases. The precise hotspot is a bunch of towns in eastern Lombardy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39863395)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:33 AM
Author: Tim Daotua

Yes, in hotspots everyone has it. They have stopped testing in Wuhan. It probably just needs to run its course.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39856977)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:38 AM
Author: Starving Autist

What if all the people in the hospital are just fighting the virus the third, fourth or fifth times and it keeps coming back stronger?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857007)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:41 AM
Author: Tim Daotua

What if...what if...we were the virus all along?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857029)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 12:43 AM
Author: .....................:......:::.......;...........


What evidence is there of that?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857036)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 1:27 AM
Author: NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder

the ones in the hospital are likely those who received a heavy viral load...that's why washing hands and not touching your face is important...you may very well get the virus anyway, but as long as you wash your hands a lot and not touch your mucus membranes, the viral load will be light, meaning you don't get a bad case of it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857265)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 4:21 AM
Author: Frank Lloyd Wrong (retired)

Doesnt it reproduce inside the body

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857622)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 7:27 AM
Author: NIGGERTHREADING radio operator license holder

of course it does, but it is also clear that the quantity of the exposure matters

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857800)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 7:38 PM
Author: borders

It is far more common to see mutations into less severe strains than more severe.....

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39863257)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 12:45 AM
Author: .;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,


Bort resident epidemiology experts, your response?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857047)



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Date: March 25th, 2020 1:02 AM
Author: LathamTouchedMe

That comports with the computer model I linked to a few days ago. 86% of Chinese cases went undetected. So fatality and hospitalization rates were actually 10x lower. When China got better with testing their detection rate went up to about 60%+ but they missed so many mild cases, especially early on, that they never had a complete picture of the total number of cases. It is still a serious and unique challenge but we are definitely acting blind in this.

http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4479648&mc=53&forum_id=2#top

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857144)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 1:03 AM
Author: fraudvirus

one of the few reasonable posts you've ever made

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857148)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 2:44 AM
Author: Such anathema to us! (as The Americans)

Why were Chinese deaths so concentrated in Wuhan only then, if it actually spread widely all over? Same for Lombardy in Italy, NYC in US. Something real is happening in those places that doesn’t seem to be happening in the rest of their respective countries.

The China numbers really make no sense to me. How did it create so much localized death and destruction, and then just stop spreading almost completely?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857465)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 6:18 AM
Author: NOWAG screaming N-word at NYC Hasidic children

China was playing lots of games with the numbers. They would only test people in other provinces if they had confirmed contact with a sick person from Wuhan.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857719)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 7:39 PM
Author: So we looked at the data



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39863261)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 8:05 PM
Author: ,,..,,,.,:;,..::,,....,:,..,:,,..:.,:.:,.


Nationwide lockdown halted the spread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39863417)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 5:58 AM
Author: A Jurisprudence is Performed (Dictated But Not Read)

"Eran Bendavid" "Jay Bhattacharya" and "Neeraj Sood" telling Americans not to worry about their health and GET BACK TO WORK

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857701)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 6:56 AM
Author: poa

this is what real Americans want to hear, shitlib

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857758)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 7:14 AM
Author: A Jurisprudence is Performed (Dictated But Not Read)

no doubt the decades-long propoganda campaign has been remarkably successful.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857773)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 6:04 AM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,:,.,.:..:.,:,::,.


The crush on hospitals is why this is such a big deal. They aren’t full of hysterical hypochondriacs either. These are very sick and dying people entering hospitals that don’t even have the equipment to treat everyone properly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857709)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 6:38 AM
Author: A Jurisprudence is Performed (Dictated But Not Read)

OP is in day 10 of acute BRUNCH withdrawal and won't listen to reason

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857734)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 10:13 AM
Author: Non sequitur

Overwhelm the thythtem he lisped

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39858629)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 10:40 PM
Author: .,.,...,..,.,..:,,:,......,:,.,.:..:.,:,::,.


Such a lame response.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39864423)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 7:33 AM
Author: donny (days under quarantine: 10)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39857825)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 9:38 AM
Author: .....................:......:::.......;...........


Bump for day crew

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39858352)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 8:17 PM
Author: .;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,


Don't show this to the histrionic poasters here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39863484)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 25th, 2020 10:35 PM
Author: fraudvirus



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39864389)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2020 11:07 AM
Author: Non sequitur



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4486572&forum_id=2#39867313)