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Exeunt, reveal your trades / how much money you made in last 2 months (DTP)
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:33 PM Author: cerise whorehouse i'm sure we are all curious to know.
i lost everything again trying to time the market and making extremely risky bets.
would love to see the thought process of how a pro does it |
Date: April 8th, 2020 2:41 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm u first (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970168) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:42 PM Author: Arrogant aggressive half-breed space do your boomers give you the button to fire off single name trades (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970173) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:53 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm yes, but i rarely do them. i don't consider myself an expert stock picker. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970239) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:55 PM Author: Arrogant aggressive half-breed space do you have to report to an office do you wear suits |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:56 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm no, i work from home
no, last time i wore a suit was years and years ago |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Arrogant aggressive half-breed space wear zip fleeces like Steve Cohen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970275) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:10 PM Author: Lilac soul-stirring center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970340) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:15 PM Author: Arrogant aggressive half-breed space dope (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970376) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:24 PM Author: Lilac soul-stirring center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970441) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:33 PM Author: Arrogant aggressive half-breed space 180 except the uncleanliness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970507) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:40 PM Author: Lilac soul-stirring center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970544) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:53 PM Author: cerise whorehouse 1. around late feb i turned into BEAR GANG and gleefully shorted bitcoin around $9k. was up a HUGE amount but saw most of the gains evaporate on the bounce back (from $3.7k to $6k).
2. fuming with rage, i doubled down and continued shorting around $5.5k, thinking we were going to continue heading down for sure. this time i was subject to liquidation. i kept adding leverage as it kept dropping, but then it reversed! and when bitcoin surged past $6.5k i lost everything.
3. i took a breather to re-evaluate, but got lured back in. i put in the remainder of my savings, and turned into BULL GANG around $6.3k. was up a huge amount recently, but was determined to make massive gains so i made the same mistakes as before and kept upping the leverage. several reversals and re-reversals later, the value of my account was whittled down. put everything on a moonshot bet, and lost it all. this took about a week. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:54 PM Author: sable pit community account dood u would make a killing if u wrote a book about basically anything (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970249) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:55 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970256) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:55 PM Author: vigorous son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970257) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:56 PM Author: Arrogant aggressive half-breed space someone already wrote the incel bible he lost his chance (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970268) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: sable pit community account a lesser man would have just said something "i shorted the market, fma"
it's the little touches like "fuming with rage . . ." and "gleefully shorted" that turn this into high art |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:59 PM Author: 180 piazza "Took a breather to re-evaluate"
🤣🤣🤣 |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:01 PM Author: sable pit community account that was a 180 transition (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970294) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:25 PM Author: Hairraiser chrome internal respiration stage This made it art (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971671) |
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Date: June 10th, 2020 11:27 PM Author: big location round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#40394780) |
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Date: June 10th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Bateful lodge dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#40394793) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:15 PM Author: cerise whorehouse it's lived experience
bill ackman made $2 billion from $20 million shorting the market. i wanted to be like him |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:19 PM Author: autistic resort organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970406) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:29 PM Author: canary glittery dilemma CR. DTP, don’t listen to the haters on this one. Our boards very own fiver literally gave up a tenured law professor job to make bank self publishing books (her genre is romance with a SJW twist). Indie publishing is your road to financial freedom and a harem of feminine kathoeys |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:55 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm dude wtf is wrong w you.
i've never made a leveraged crypto trade in my life. it's already insanely volatile. any kind of leverage crypto betting will eventually wipe you out. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:56 PM Author: Scarlet swashbuckling school party of the first part i am in this poast and i do not like it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970264) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:56 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970270) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:58 PM Author: aphrodisiac insane chapel useless brakes OK, he did his. Now you go. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970281) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:12 PM Author: cerise whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970359) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:13 PM Author: cerise whorehouse it's the only way for those of us who got in post-2017 to make 100x gains anymore
ur turn
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:16 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970388) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:22 PM Author: cerise whorehouse well> (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970423) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:57 PM Author: cerise whorehouse jfc exeunt scammed me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970646) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 4:27 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm lol @ u (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970901) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 4:38 PM Author: cerise whorehouse let me take a guess
you sold a decent chunk before the crash (not everything, because that would be too risky). you've been buying occasionally all the way down, and mostly on the way up.
you form most of your opinions about latest virus developments and whether or not something is priced in through private investor letters and friends at hedge funds. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: vigorous son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971015) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 4:59 PM Author: cerise whorehouse i started reading about "the economy" during the recent frenzy. just to make sense of things. large investment firms employ an army of experts who work 24/7 to deliver the most up-to-date analyses possible. the stuff filtered through the media is always lagging by a few days at best.
exeunt reads some of these, chooses the ones that are most probable, and then posts them here without citing sources. he's like a content aggregator more than a "magical asian." |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm u vastly overrate my dependence on other sources. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971432) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:21 PM Author: cerise whorehouse are you saying you're reading the same laggy/biased corona updates from the mainstream news that we all are? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971638) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:21 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971642) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 5:41 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm mostly right except almost all my opinions are developed independently. i do very little reading of other peoples' analysis. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971399) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:18 PM Author: cerise whorehouse i don't think so, you must be looking at sources that the average XO'er isn't looking at (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971620) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:20 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm no, im serious. im reading the news, engaging w the numbers, and doing my own thinking.
to the extent that i pay attention to reports generated by others, i use them to gauge the conventional wisdom/what's likely priced in. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:26 PM Author: cerise whorehouse the market rebounded hard as soon as the surgeon general and trump warned we were entering "our worst 2 weeks" and to prepare for "many deaths"
there was certainly informational front-running by groups who knew, based on hard numbers, that NYC corona had peaked and wasn't going to be "as bad as italy."
i'm sure the information was only available in a brief sliver of time before the market shot up, and relied on expert knowledge that nobody can glean simply from news articles. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:28 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm no, when i said it was increasingly likely NYC would NOT become italy 2.0, i based this off the numbers that were being reported. it had nothing to do with inside info.
it was educated guess work that was apparent in the numbers. the market mostly reacts to acceleration/decceleration, not absolute rate of change. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:30 PM Author: cerise whorehouse you mean you went on some public tracker site and plotted the number of deaths per day or something like that?
if so, kudos for doing that. but there are so many variables and uncertainties involved in such things, it's really just guesswork |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:38 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm yes.
most of the uncertainty/volatility in the market was just how bad the virus was going to get. news over the past two weeks has been consistently positive.
the current rally is pricing in a much more optimistic outlook re: the severity of the virus. in the next few months, the market will increasingly turn to economic fundamentals such as earnings reports, unemployment, etc. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:43 PM Author: cerise whorehouse nah the news was getting worse, and hit its peak badness right before the market rebounded. "worst 2 weeks in our lives, get ready for death" etc. you know that. you're going to say "well the acceleration slowed down" but acceleration is hard to gauge in something that has such few data points, as you should know, and that certainly was not derived from the news.
i'm still confused though why the effects of this "recession" are so light and short. people are going to be out of work for a long time. social distancing will dampen acittivities and consumption and work for many months if not years. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:44 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm no, the decceleration in cases was obvious in NYC. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971791) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:50 PM Author: cerise whorehouse i see from the graph that it does look like the "new case count" had leveled off around late march
and you weren't deterred by the possibility that this was due to a dearth of testing or some other factor?
i guess you used NYC as the model and exrapolated that to the effects that would be felt elsewhere in the US, and you assumed the market would price that information in (i.e. they wouldn't be shocked by later developments in the south / florida for example)
very strange how quickly the market went from not caring, to assuming apocalypse, to recovering, off a small set of data points about one paradigm city, and you managed to extract just the right amount of information from public data sources to mimic it. i find this incredible to believe, but i'll mull it over. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:52 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm no, i wasn't deterred by data uncertainty b/c of confirmatory trends in seattle, sf and the west coast in general. it was fairly clear early on that the west coast was nowhere near close to being overwhelmed.
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:54 PM Author: cerise whorehouse by that same reasoning (seattle/west coast were not being overwhelmed even early on) shouldn't the market have NOT plummeted in the first place?
and one could argue that NYC is sufficiently different than the west coast, just like NYC is sufficiently different from italy. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 7:00 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm keep in mind when that trend on the west coast became apparent, NYC's cases were exploding and people were imagining thousands of new yorkers suffocating to death for lack of ventilators in ICUs.
NYC is massively important because it's the world's financial center. many of the peolpe making decisions about the market live there and they feel the fear more viscerally b/c the death and sickness is so close to them. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 7:06 PM Author: cerise whorehouse seems pretty sketchy, but acceptable reasoning
and you knew that the market had already priced in astronomically high unemployment numbers, months and even years of social distancing, etc?
to compare it to 2009 for example, i have no idea why this "recession" has been so light and brief. we are back to 2018 numbers. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 7:09 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm i didn't know for sure the market was pricing it in. we got that confirmation when the market RALLIED on the horrific #s two weeks ago and the non-reaction from last week.
main difference is the fed came in with massive liquidity early on and congress acted fast, too, and in size. during the financial crisis, we had a tiny pink stimulus in early 2008 and then an $800bn stimulus in 2009, and the fed only began QE in late 2008. note that the market bottomed soon after we passed stimulus in 2009. |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 7:13 PM Author: cerise whorehouse this is selection bias.
the market rallied on bad unemployment numbers, but earlier on it had dumped when the first multi-trillion dollar QE package was announced as well.
if you think massive unemployment is priced in, shouldn't trillion dollar QE be as well? both were pretty obvious, but i would argue that the former is actually less easy to imagine/price in |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 4:39 PM Author: Arrogant aggressive half-breed space he's writing a screed to outdo yours gonna take some time |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: slate trust fund pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971434) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:55 PM Author: vigorous son of senegal this can't be real (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970258) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:56 PM Author: Ungodly Hot Menage Masturbator Lol yolo 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970269) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:56 PM Author: disturbing locus reading party 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970273) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:58 PM Author: 180 piazza Boart treasure (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970280) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 2:59 PM Author: Scarlet swashbuckling school party of the first part 180 regardless if flame or not (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970284) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:06 PM Author: cerise whorehouse not flame, here are the threads to prove it
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4454809&mc=1&forum_id=2
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4469695&mc=8&forum_id=2
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497759&mc=43&forum_id=2 http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4501519&mc=3&forum_id=2 |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 3:01 PM Author: apoplectic property holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970296) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 5:00 PM Author: Territorial Dingle Berry Shrine Where is exeunt's reply? What are his Positions? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971162) |
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Date: April 8th, 2020 6:00 PM Author: abusive gay wizard New business for exeunt: Just front run all of us retards here on all your trades. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971508) |