i lost everything again trying to time the market and making extremely risky bets.

would love to see the thought process of how a pro does it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970117)

do you wear suits

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970255)

no, last time i wore a suit was years and years ago

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970267)

2. fuming with rage, i doubled down and continued shorting around $5.5k, thinking we were going to continue heading down for sure. this time i was subject to liquidation. i kept adding leverage as it kept dropping, but then it reversed! and when bitcoin surged past $6.5k i lost everything.

3. i took a breather to re-evaluate, but got lured back in. i put in the remainder of my savings, and turned into BULL GANG around $6.3k. was up a huge amount recently, but was determined to make massive gains so i made the same mistakes as before and kept upping the leverage. several reversals and re-reversals later, the value of my account was whittled down. put everything on a moonshot bet, and lost it all. this took about a week.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970243)

it's the little touches like "fuming with rage . . ." and "gleefully shorted" that turn this into high art

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970276)

🤣🤣🤣

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970285)

bill ackman made $2 billion from $20 million shorting the market. i wanted to be like him

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970381)

DTP, don’t listen to the haters on this one. Our boards very own fiver literally gave up a tenured law professor job to make bank self publishing books (her genre is romance with a SJW twist).

Indie publishing is your road to financial freedom and a harem of feminine kathoeys

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970472)

i've never made a leveraged crypto trade in my life. it's already insanely volatile. any kind of leverage crypto betting will eventually wipe you out.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970254)

ur turn

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970366)

you sold a decent chunk before the crash (not everything, because that would be too risky). you've been buying occasionally all the way down, and mostly on the way up.

you form most of your opinions about latest virus developments and whether or not something is priced in through private investor letters and friends at hedge funds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970997)

exeunt reads some of these, chooses the ones that are most probable, and then posts them here without citing sources. he's like a content aggregator more than a "magical asian."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971159)

to the extent that i pay attention to reports generated by others, i use them to gauge the conventional wisdom/what's likely priced in.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971633)

there was certainly informational front-running by groups who knew, based on hard numbers, that NYC corona had peaked and wasn't going to be "as bad as italy."

i'm sure the information was only available in a brief sliver of time before the market shot up, and relied on expert knowledge that nobody can glean simply from news articles.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971678)

it was educated guess work that was apparent in the numbers. the market mostly reacts to acceleration/decceleration, not absolute rate of change.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971687)

if so, kudos for doing that. but there are so many variables and uncertainties involved in such things, it's really just guesswork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971697)

most of the uncertainty/volatility in the market was just how bad the virus was going to get. news over the past two weeks has been consistently positive.

the current rally is pricing in a much more optimistic outlook re: the severity of the virus. in the next few months, the market will increasingly turn to economic fundamentals such as earnings reports, unemployment, etc.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971742)

i'm still confused though why the effects of this "recession" are so light and short. people are going to be out of work for a long time. social distancing will dampen acittivities and consumption and work for many months if not years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971783)

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases-deaths-hospitalizations-by-age-chart-2020-3

and you weren't deterred by the possibility that this was due to a dearth of testing or some other factor?

i guess you used NYC as the model and exrapolated that to the effects that would be felt elsewhere in the US, and you assumed the market would price that information in (i.e. they wouldn't be shocked by later developments in the south / florida for example)

very strange how quickly the market went from not caring, to assuming apocalypse, to recovering, off a small set of data points about one paradigm city, and you managed to extract just the right amount of information from public data sources to mimic it. i find this incredible to believe, but i'll mull it over.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971822)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971837)

and one could argue that NYC is sufficiently different than the west coast, just like NYC is sufficiently different from italy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971854)

NYC is massively important because it's the world's financial center. many of the peolpe making decisions about the market live there and they feel the fear more viscerally b/c the death and sickness is so close to them.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971909)

and you knew that the market had already priced in astronomically high unemployment numbers, months and even years of social distancing, etc?

to compare it to 2009 for example, i have no idea why this "recession" has been so light and brief. we are back to 2018 numbers.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971954)

main difference is the fed came in with massive liquidity early on and congress acted fast, too, and in size. during the financial crisis, we had a tiny pink stimulus in early 2008 and then an $800bn stimulus in 2009, and the fed only began QE in late 2008. note that the market bottomed soon after we passed stimulus in 2009.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971969)

the market rallied on bad unemployment numbers, but earlier on it had dumped when the first multi-trillion dollar QE package was announced as well.

if you think massive unemployment is priced in, shouldn't trillion dollar QE be as well? both were pretty obvious, but i would argue that the former is actually less easy to imagine/price in

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971988)

gonna take some time

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39971003)

http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4454809&mc=1&forum_id=2

http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4469695&mc=8&forum_id=2

http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4497759&mc=43&forum_id=2

http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4501519&mc=3&forum_id=2

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502502&forum_id=2#39970324)