Rumor that Alito is about to step down
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Poast new message in this thread
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Date: July 1st, 2020 1:11 PM Author: arousing stage headpube
That's literally exactly what it is. If betting odds bear no relationship to probability how would a casino ever possibly make money?
You agree that odds in a craps game represent a probability, correct? Hitting a yo bet or 8-hardways pays much more than hitting the pass line.
The same is true in sports betting, which, because of greater uncertainty, is the least profitable part of the casino.
Betting odds on IRL outcomes are a probability reflecting the wisdom of the crowd.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40528476) |
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Date: July 1st, 2020 3:29 PM Author: Cream cuckoldry area
It's not at all the definition of probability. There is no relationship between the odds of winning and the quantity/wealth/sentiment of morons using predictit.
If 10 people walk up to a roulette table and bet on red, the odds of landing on red do not change. Bets on an event don't effect the offs of it happening.
If a boxer's family shows up in a bus at a casino and they all bet a million on him, the betting line moves in his favor but his actual odds of winning the fight do not go up. The odds of victory are determined by training, strategy, etc. and not in any way determined by the amount of bets in his favor.
The only argument for predictit it is one often seen with stocks, that insiders have access to information that actually does influence the potential outcome and the surer bets they place then move the betting line in favor of the secretly more likely outcome. That didnt pan out with the 2016 presidential election
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40529427)
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Date: July 1st, 2020 8:19 PM Author: lascivious stock car
"If a boxer's family shows up in a bus at a casino and they all bet a million on him, the betting line moves in his favor but his actual odds of winning the fight do not go up. The odds of victory are determined by training, strategy, etc. and not in any way determined by the amount of bets in his favor."
If this were to happen, someone would notice the easy money on the other side and place bets on the other side till the odds went back to where they were.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40531235)
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Date: July 1st, 2020 9:52 AM Author: Mind-boggling gunner
lol at these libs commenting like "well mcconnell can't vote on a replacement! That's the rule now!"
some real "libs are the real racists" level thinking
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40527187) |
Date: July 1st, 2020 10:07 AM Author: Flushed naked national security agency
JFC. Come on. Alito is pretty solid, hate to risk him being replaced by another Roberts or, increasingly, Gorsuch. He is like the one positive legacy of the GWB years.
And he's a flat 70? Total bullshit. I understand that it sucks to live in DC especially as a conservative, but if you take one of these jobs I think you keep it until 80, minimum (absent health problems that would make your death under an unfriendly administration a significant risk).
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40527253) |
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Date: July 1st, 2020 3:33 PM Author: Sable fat ankles
yeah, here is the chart for percentages of americans who claim Social Security at what age:
Age When Starting Benefits
% of Men
% of Women
age 62
42%
48%
age 63
7%
8%
age 64
7%
8%
age 65-66
34%
27%
67-69
7%
6%
70
2%
4%
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40529456)
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Date: July 1st, 2020 10:12 AM Author: big sooty space
agreed re alito being solid and the risk of a cucky replacement, but under the circumstances it's understandable. biden could win and libs could have the presidency for 8+ years.
staying till 80 puts them at risk of a marshall/rehnquist/scalia situation where they die or have to step down due to failing health at that age and risk being replaced with someone of the opposite ideology.
not to mention that the next time there's a GOP POTUS, libs might have the senate and use it to block all SCOTUS nominees. this could be the last year for a very long time when a conservative can be appointed.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40527281) |
Date: July 1st, 2020 11:52 AM Author: Startled Provocative Location Newt
on one hand, alito could see this as a 1-2 punch:
1) allow trump to replace him to "guarantee" another conservative for the next 20 years
2) help put the supreme court in the forefront of the election and help trump win so he can serve another term and replace ruthie in the chance she croaks by 2024
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40527902) |
Date: July 1st, 2020 1:09 PM Author: Dull Range
dreaming, but scotus should generally be
60 year olds getting appointed after paying their dues and proving their legal acumen
and retiring when they are 70 to 75
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4574097&forum_id=2,#40528468) |
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