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Major Rent Bubble Set To Burst In MFH (Bloomberg)
Poast new message in this thread
Date: July 8th, 2020 12:00 PM Author: ..,..;;...,,,,,...,..;;....,,,,,,;;;; (✡️) https://www.bloombergquint.com/businessweek/coronavirus-moves-nyc-affordable-housing-crisis-to-breaking-point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567588) |
Date: July 8th, 2020 12:02 PM Author: .,,,.,.,..,.,:,..::,,...,:,...,:,.,..:.,:.::,. friend of mine just signed a $9500/mo lease in mfh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567604) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:02 PM Author: ..,..;;...,,,,,...,..;;....,,,,,,;;;; (✡️) was his name benzo? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567607) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:02 PM Author: Oh, you travel? lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567609) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: .,.,..,,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,.,..,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,. (🦈) lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568364) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:58 PM Author: droplet transmission (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569206) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:03 PM Author: ,,;;,,,;,,,:,;,,,,,,;:,,,;,,,,,:,,,;;,,,; (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567613) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:06 PM Author: Redacted Actual NYC landlordmo here.
Our management company is signing leases. Many slightly discounted, but mostly at the same price as 2019 leases.
You're welks. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:08 PM Author: ..,..;;...,,,,,...,..;;....,,,,,,;;;; (✡️) what % increase did u have from 2018 to 2019? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567636) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:11 PM Author: Redacted Typically 3-4% year over year for de-control units. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567666) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:11 PM Author: JFC “Typically a studio would go for $2,600, but now it’s $2,300,” Roberts says. oh what a dip |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:12 PM Author: Astartes Part Five BUBBLE BURST (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567667) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:12 PM Author: ..,..;;...,,,,,...,..;;....,,,,,,;;;; (✡️) this is just the start of it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567669) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:12 PM Author: Redacted If it goes down another $300 it gets to TMF's price range. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567672) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: LibsRuinEverything (earl) Mandy will need another raise for them to afford it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567688) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:17 PM Author: Redacted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567700) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:17 PM Author: .,.,.,.,.,.,`.,`.`,.,.`,.,.`,`.,`.,`., (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567704) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:26 PM Author: '"'"'"''" *gets another 2 days of PTO* "We did it!" |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:37 PM Author: bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568615) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:03 PM Author: Jaggers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568837) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:35 PM Author: CYRUS THE VIRUS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569087) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:59 PM Author: droplet transmission (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569214) |
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Date: July 9th, 2020 11:44 AM Author: Non sequitur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40573607) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:17 PM Author: '"'"'"''" "Technically, the N, Q, R, W, B, D, F, and M trains all run right under this unit but --" "I'll take it." |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:17 PM Author: Redacted (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567706) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:00 PM Author: droplet transmission (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569217) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: ...;;;...;;;...;;;...;;;...;;;...;;; (never count out a MUSCLE NUT) It will be interesting to see what happens over the next year or two.
When Tokyo real estate busted out prices in some areas went down for like 10 years in real terms - Tokyo is a good proxy for heavily urbanized megacities IMO. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:16 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism There's probably still a lot of pent up demand with people in Brooklyn and Queens waiting to swoop in. I'd expect the markets in Williamsburg, LIC, etc to crash before MFH does
For those who still need to continue working in mfh, the chance to move to avoid a commute is now a bigger deal |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:25 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: the opposite is happening. rents are up in Brooklyn, down in Manhattan
https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/ |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:30 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism Where does it discuss Brooklyn?
To be clear, I'd expect mfh to drop some. I just don't think it's going to crash. Landlords can lower rents a bit and entice enough orbiters in |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:35 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: ctrl+F "Brooklyn"
Pandemic pricing continues to affect the top markets while the “Brooklyn Effect” becomes more pronounced in cheaper, neighboring cities
The top 10 most expensive markets continued to experience pandemic pricing, as the majority of these cities were trending on a downward trajectory last month. As the pandemic persists on, the demand for rentals has continued to shift away from these pricey areas and a significant amount of that demand seems to be moving toward neighboring, less expensive areas. Similar to the trend we saw in New York, the “Brooklyn Effect” has become more pronounced as some of the largest monthly rent price increases in the nation occurred in satellite cities. For example, in our top markets, while Boston and San Francisco rents were on the decline, Providence and Sacramento prices were both up around 5% last month. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:29 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) people in williamsburg are there by choice, but i agree that all of long island city would move to MFH if they could afford it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567795) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:37 PM Author: Redacted Nah, they like those luxury buildings and LIC is low-key, quiet and has the best view of MFH from anywhere. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567841) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:41 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism That's just a tiny sliver of it. Go a little further north and pretty much just a slightly nicer Bronx (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567865) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:59 PM Author: Redacted You're talking about Astoria. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568395) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:20 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism That too, but a huge chunk of LIC is still along the elevated N line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568521) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:26 PM Author: Redacted Look, faggot
We're talking about the real LIC people not the prole rent-controlled trash that lives in hovels near the projects because they arrived from Iran and Yemen 5 years ago. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:32 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) "real LIC people" lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568584) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:45 PM Author: Redacted (real Lawn Guylinder) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568678) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:54 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) LIC is a sterile, shitty, soon-to-be-vacant "neighborhood"
pretty great commute to midtown though |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:35 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: cr it doesn't even have an opera...where is its food co-op?
"soon-to-be-vacant"
state your IQ |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:58 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) the people in LIC will move back home or out to the suburbs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569205) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:02 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: so your IQ is low, got it.
the market will clear. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:16 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) it's a neighborhood for transients who work in midtown and will be more negatively affected by covid than other neighborhoods outside of mfh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569643) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:05 PM Author: Jaggers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568850) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:17 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism Bitch, I brought up LIC in the first place. Don't tell me what we're talking about (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568962) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:39 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: nobody lives in that part, that's all zoned for manufacturing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568626) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:29 PM Author: Redacted It was all rezoned you dumb know nothing fucking faggot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569044) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:34 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: no it wasn't, a lot of it is still zoned industrial, including the site amazon was looking to rezone. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569079) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:57 PM Author: ;;;..;....;......,,, Dat QUEENS address tho (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568377) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:00 PM Author: droplet transmission 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569222) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:56 PM Author: Oh, you travel? I just moved to LIC from Manhattan to get away from it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567965) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:36 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: "people in williamsburg are there by choice, but i agree that all of long island city would move to MFH if they could afford it"
lol
yeah i'm sure all the people living in vinyl siding specials east of the BQE in williamsburg are there by choice, as opposed to people in LIC |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:28 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) williamsburg is a destination neighborhood at this point and has been for quite a while. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569036) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:34 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: it's a destination neighborhood for a small number of craft-beer-swilling brooklyn faggots. most people still consider it a dump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569080) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:39 PM Author: Redacted And French people. The French love "Brooqueline" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569104) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:04 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) 2nd most spoken language in bk heights, cobble hill, and carroll gardens (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569597) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:05 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: odd flex but ok
just one of the things that makes that corner of brooklyn incredibly insufferable |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:16 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) not a flex, just saying that that's where the french live. they don't live in fucking williamsburg. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569645) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 5:06 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: they're the fucking worst (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569604) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:15 PM Author: .,,...,,.,...,,.,.,,,,.. ( ) it is a dump and i don't like it (williamsburg)
but it's still a destination neighborhood for young people and will remain one for some time. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 4:04 PM Author: .........,,.,.,.,.,,,,,,.,.,.,.,.,. yea i like my building in LIC. No desire to move now bc im in walking distance of my job and we may have to eventually go back. Only chance I move is if I can find a building with a basketball court for a reasonable price. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40569245) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:33 PM Author: '"'"'"''" Williamsburg is decidedly "cool" to a certain group, but it's hard to imagine people continuing to gentrify places like Bed-Stuy or Bushwick. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567817) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:35 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism okay, W'Burg is bad example, but yeah there are plenty of others that would gladly pay Brooklyn rent to live in MFH (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567829) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:40 PM Author: .,;,,.;,,.,;,.:.,,;;.;.,.;,;,..,,:,.;;.....:..,.:: it's not such a bad example, a huge part of williamsburg is a formerly italian ghetto shithole with ugly vinyl siding houses and not enough retail. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568635) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 12:41 PM Author: Dickey Simpkins Many of these places will sir vacate for months or even years before landlords accept more than 10% maybe 15% at most less rent. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40567862) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:57 PM Author: ARE Reptile TCR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568378) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 1:59 PM Author: ORANGE BOOMER BAD yeah, because they own multiple properties, and if they cave in now, they will lose millions (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568387) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:01 PM Author: ARE Reptile More like because they are funds and if their projected rent roll drops they have to revalue the entire fund which would cost the fund managers their jobs. A 10% vacancy rate wont cost anyone their job. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568406) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:29 PM Author: ;.,.,.;;;::.,.;.,;.;.;.;.;;::..;.;.,,, (Beer Like Water. Drugs Like Candy. Women Like Tissue.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568566) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:44 PM Author: ~~(> ' ' )> I have a hard time believing anyone would be so stupid as to think rents matter but occupancy doesn't.
Explain. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:52 PM Author: ARE Reptile REIT multiples are based on AFFO.
AFFO is calculated by
AFFO = FFO + rent increases - capital expenditures - routine maintenance amounts
FFO is calculated by
FFO = net income + amortization + depreciation - capital gains from property sales
Rent increases in AFFO are a projection one year out. You take the hit in FFO from low occupancy in the current year but then by not adjusting down your projected rent roll you get to book rents that wont actually exist in AFFO. GAAP covers whats acceptable and not in terms of the specifics of when you have to adjust for the fact that your projected rent roll will never materialize but you can mask this shit for a very long time. |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:12 PM Author: '''''''''''''''''''''' (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568470) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 2:37 PM Author: ......;,;.,;,,.,;,.,;,.;;,.,;,..,.,;,.,.;, i'm not a RE masterman, but won't certain leveraged properties need to drop rent in order to service debt? that would have to ripple through the market, no? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4579220&forum_id=2#40568612) |
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Date: July 8th, 2020 3:05 PM Author: Redacted LOL no. They just won't pay, either.
That or RE taxes. |