🚨 A Professional Statistician Weighs In On Biden/Trump Voting Trends 🚨
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 5th, 2020 6:51 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
https://mobile.twitter.com/statsguyphd/status/1324352213595181059
Libs, your response? This should be extremely easy to verify or refute mathematically—and you guys are all about “the numbers,” right? #IFuckinLoveMath
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41290707) |
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Date: November 5th, 2020 7:20 PM Author: Clear Alcoholic Lodge
Statisticians have known the Benford's law test is flame for over a decade
https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/206427437.pdf
Joseph Deckert, Mikhail Myagkov, and Peter C. Ordeshook
University of Oregon and California Institute of Technology
Looking at simulations designed to model both fair and fraudulent contests as well as data drawn from elections we know, on the basis of other investigations, were either permeated by fraud or unlikely to have experienced any measurable malfeasance, we find that conformity with and deviations from Benford’s Law follow no pattern. It is not simply that the Law occasionally judges a fraudulent election fair or a fair election fraudulent. Its ‘‘success rate’’ either way is essentially equivalent to a toss of a coin, thereby rendering it problematical at best as a forensic tool and wholly misleading at worst.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41291051)
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Date: November 5th, 2020 7:32 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
I’m assuming you’re a liberal so you might not be used to being on the receiving end of this one, but this paper has been “debunked”:
https://mobile.twitter.com/statsguyphd/status/1324491299119091720
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41291186) |
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Date: November 5th, 2020 7:35 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
So... it’s *not* been established as “flame,” then? Because I thought that’s what you said above.
Guess maybe we’ll find out what other experts have to say soon! I don’t know shit about statistics, I’m just a guy asking questions and looking for answers.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41291228) |
Date: November 5th, 2020 6:55 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
This is a “Please Respond”. You can take your time, but I will go ahead and bump this periodically.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41290748) |
Date: November 5th, 2020 7:00 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
Update: I realize it’s probably not fair to ask you guys to take this apart without posting the code used to run this analysis, so here you go: https://mobile.twitter.com/statsguyphd/status/1324425072136884227
(You can also tell us why the code is all fucked up and fake and gay if that’s easier—just please remember to be specific. You guys are really into specifics because you keep asking Trumpmos to provide specifics about exactly how and where and when this alleged fraud occurred. So please show them how it’s done and be specific in your criticism of this analysis/code. Thank!)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41290798) |
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Date: November 5th, 2020 7:40 PM Author: wine home filthpig
TBF, do you have "To be fair," macro'ed to something? Seems like after so many years you would want to limit keystrokes.
If it takes another 3 seconds per poast, and you have been poasting for ~10 years with an average poasting frequency of 100 posts / day
that is 300 hours of time you could have saved.
HOW BOUT DAT FOR SOME ANAL-LYTICS?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41291286)
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Date: November 5th, 2020 7:11 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
Oh sweet that’s nice
So now that that’s fixed, please respond?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41290931) |
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Date: November 5th, 2020 7:14 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
Oh so they’re just “artifacts”
Well that does sound technical I’ll give you that
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41290980) |
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Date: November 5th, 2020 7:17 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
This would be an absolutely devastating response if I was invoking the authority of this person alone and saying he said it so you have to trust him.
Luckily, he has laid out his entire analysis step by step and I’ve posted the code he used to run the analysis in this thread in useable form. So just pretend he’s an idiot who made it all up and tear it apart for me so I can stop bumping this thread. But please be specific. Bidenmos really like specifics, and I do too. Common ground!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41291003) |
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Date: November 5th, 2020 7:59 PM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
Well if he doesn’t do that, guess we’ll know it was bullshit.
Maybe we’ll find out soon. Here’s hoping.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41291523) |
Date: November 6th, 2020 1:44 AM Author: odious turquoise center brethren
The argument that Benford's law shows electoral fraud when applied in this manner is identical to the following argument:
1. Many men claim to be 6 feet tall.
2. Benford's law would suggest that about 30% of heights should start with the number 1.
3. Therefore we know that men are lying about their height, because approximately 30% of men are 1 foot tall.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41295654) |
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Date: November 6th, 2020 9:10 AM Author: odious turquoise center brethren
Let me spell it out more for the slow children.
Benford is good for things like population of a municipality, because municipalities grow by multiplication over a long time period and span multiple orders of magnitude, so we can observe more with populations of 1x, 1xx, 1xxx, 1xxxx, etc, and not so many with populations like 9x, 9xx, 9xxx, 9xxxx.
Benford is not so good if most voting districts have about 1000 people, a candidate received approximately 60% of the vote in a lot of districts. In that case, a lot of his vote total will be 6xx and very few will be 1xx or 1xxx. To start with 1, we need him to either collect nearly every vote or a tiny fraction. That would in fact be a more suspicious result unless we know that districts are very polarized.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41297097) |
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Date: November 6th, 2020 11:41 AM Author: Passionate Market
To be fair,
OK cool so no fraud nothing to see here. Got it.
So why do you care if we waste our time going down a retarded rabbit hole? Why bother even refuting the idiocy in this thread? Do you spend your weekends shitting on QAnon Reddit posts, as well?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4678409&forum_id=2#41298845) |
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