Key Timeline Breakdown

0-3 Months (Beginner Basics, ~50% Chance): You'll learn essential Muay Thai strikes (punches, kicks, knees, elbows) and BJJ escapes/submissions (e.g., guard recovery, basic chokes/armbars). Against an untrained "street brawler" who's overconfident from bar fights, you might not "beat the piss out" yet, but you can avoid common mistakes like wild swinging. Their experience is likely sloppy (arm punches, no defense), so your trained timing and cardio give an initial advantage. However, if they're bigger or land a lucky haymaker, it could go south. Anecdotes suggest this stage lets you handle most average people, but not reliably dominate someone scrappy.@MasonsMastery+2 more

3-6 Months (Intermediate Confidence, 70%+ Chance): This is where most sources pinpoint a tipping point for your scenario. With regular sparring, you'll have muscle memory for Muay Thai combos (e.g., leg kicks to cripple mobility, clinch knees if they rush) and BJJ takedown defenses/submissions. You can "play it carefully" by controlling range—kicking to keep them at bay, then grappling to ground and submit if they try to brawl. Against an untrained opponent, their overconfidence often leads to gassing out quickly, while your conditioning shines. Experts note that 6 months of Muay Thai alone can let you "shit curb" a bigger untrained guy with repeated leg kicks, and adding BJJ ensures you handle ground scrambles. At this point, you'd likely have a 70-80% win rate, assuming no huge size disparity.@yomamahouce+4 more

6-12 Months (High Confidence, 90%+ Chance): You'll be competent enough to "beat the piss out" reliably—combining Muay Thai's devastating strikes (e.g., elbows in close, body kicks for damage) with BJJ's control (e.g., mount to ground-and-pound or submit). This level handles overconfident brawlers easily, as their "few fights" experience doesn't match trained technique. Forums emphasize that after a year, you're wiping the floor with untrained folks, even if they've scrapped before.quora.com+4 more

Why This Works Against Your Opponent Type

Untrained fighters with "a few fights" often rely on aggression, wild punches, and size, but lack defense, pacing, or strategy. Muay Thai exploits this with ranged attacks (kicks shred unconditioned legs in 3-4 hits), while BJJ neutralizes rushes (e.g., clinch to takedown, then submit). Combined in MMA, it's a complete toolkit—studies and videos show 7/10 street fights go to the ground, where BJJ dominates, but Muay Thai prevents that if you choose.martialtalk.com+3 more Out-grappling is "easy" once basics are down, as they won't know escapes.

Tips to Accelerate Progress

Train 3-5x/week, mixing BJJ (grappling focus) and Muay Thai (striking), with light sparring after 1-2 months.

Prioritize cardio and technique over ego—avoid overexertion as you mentioned before.

Variables like your starting fitness (you're in decent shape) speed this up; a bigger opponent might require more time.

Always de-escalate real fights if possible—training builds confidence, not invincibility.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5749541&forum_id=2#49095907)

Eye Pokes/Gouges or Throat Strikes: Banned in all three (accidental ones halt fights). For self-defense, rake fingers across eyes or jab the throat (Adam's apple) during a clinch or grapple—Muay Thai elbows can transition into this if close. It's brutal but creates instant disorientation for breaking free. Fighters advise using it as a last resort, like if grabbed from behind in a crowded bar, since it doesn't require strength but can cause permanent damage (legal risk).quora.com+4 more

Headbutts or 12-6 Elbows (Downward Strikes): Headbutts are outlawed everywhere; 12-6 elbows (straight down like hammering) are UFC-specific bans. In a bar, headbutt forward into the nose/forehead during a tie-up (Muay Thai clinch), or drop 12-6 elbows to the crown if on top. These exploit close quarters but risk self-injury (concussions) or escalation—use sparingly against drunks who close distance sloppily.elitesports.com+4 more

Grappling Bans (Mostly from BJJ/MMA)

Small Joint Manipulation or Fish Hooking: Grabbing individual fingers/toes or hooking mouth/nostrils is illegal (breaks bones or tears flesh). In self-defense, twist fingers during a hand grab or fish hook to peel someone off you—BJJ arm drags can set this up. It's effective for escaping holds in chaotic bar scuffles but messy and potentially infectious.bjjfanatics.com+3 more

Heel Hooks, Neck Cranks, or Spinal Locks: These are restricted in beginner BJJ/IBJJF (high injury risk). For streets, crank the neck during a rear clinch or lock a heel if grounded—twist the foot inward to shred knee ligaments. BJJ experts warn against going to ground in bars (glass, multiple attackers), so use these as quick finishes if already down, then stand up fast.optimalcombat.com+3 more

Piledriving or Scissor Takedowns: Slamming head-first or scissoring legs to snap ankles is banned. Adapt by driving someone head-down onto a bar stool/table if they lift you—devastating but risky (could kill). Avoid unless life-threatening.elitesports.com+2 more

Integration Tips and Warnings

Blend with Trained Skills: Start with legal basics (Muay Thai distance kicks to legs, BJJ clinch control) to tire them, then slip in a banned move if needed—e.g., feint a teep high, then drop to groin. Train these adaptations in self-defense seminars or with pads, but never full-contact to avoid injury.

Risks: These can cause permanent harm (blindness, paralysis), leading to assault charges even requires proving reasonable fear. Bars add hazards like weapons (bottles) or friends jumping in, so ground game is dicey. Sources stress mindset: Fight dirty to win fast, but only if unavoidable.elitesports.com+4 more

Training Adjustment: Ask your gym about "no-rules" drills or watch tutorials from pros like those in the citations.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5749541&forum_id=2#49095923)