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270towin.com State Poll Averages has Kamala winning with 270 exactly
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:13 PM Author: AZNgirl voting for Trump so Dad gets deported The avgs have here ahead in PA, MI, WI, NV. Thats all she needs, she can lose AZ, GA, NC. Actually getting the one district vote in Nebraska is what gets her to 270. U mad Trumpkins?
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/ |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:47 PM Author: HITLER TEAM SIX would be 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250121) |
Date: October 28th, 2024 1:14 PM Author: """'""""'' With NV it's 276 not 270.
she only needs MI/WI/PA and NE-2 (which she's up 12 points in) for 270. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:18 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) what happens to the polling averages if you only include pollsters that were accurate within a couple points in 2016 in 2020?
the lib pollster that predicted biden will win georgia by +10 says kamala will win by +5! this is devasting news... for trump! |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:19 PM Author: """'""""'' link to a pollster saying Biden would win Georgia by +10, we'll wait (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48249983) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:27 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/georgia/
there's a +8 and +9 right at the top.
being that the average was biden +1.2 on election day, and that the result was +.2 biden, and right now it's trump +1.5, what do you think the polling averages say about what's likely to happen on 11/5 considering the across the board multi-point bias against trump historically? |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:23 PM Author: AZNgirl voting for Trump so Dad gets deported instead of everyone being faggot on polls why cant ppl just agree its too close to furking call... but u know who's gonna be bussing in millions of niggas and baby murderers on election and its not an orange person (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250000) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:29 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) because trump was *never* ahead in the polls in 2016 or 2020. trump being ahead is unprecedented, and if polling bias against him persists, and there is no reason to think it won't, then his lead is insurmountable.
the only way the polling reflects the election as "too close to call" is if you believe that they've accurately corrected from how they've adjusted polling in the past. and, if you've actually delved into their methodology, that's LJL. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:33 PM Author: ;..........POLITITH,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;. there was no reason in 2016 to think polls would be systemically biased against trump after the opposite was true in 2012
it's too close to call because you can't discount the fact that there is a non-trivial (and obviously very real given recent history, having happened three elections in a row now) chance that all polls have some common flaw in their methodology |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:37 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) i suppose that's true if you haven't bothered or don't have the ability to dive into their methodology, and simply wish to pin your hopes on "perhaps something has changed that i'm unaware of" so you can discount past results and, backed by nothing but hope, that things will be different this time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250069) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:42 PM Author: ;..........POLITITH,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;. have you "dived into their methodology" and examined the specific reasons polls were flawed in 2012, 2016, and 2020 and how that relates to how they're being conducted today? I haven't, but you sound far more confident despite seemingly not having done so either (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250103) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:47 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) i have. and i have some professional expertise here. i predict that the results will align more with the polls than in 2016 and 2020 but trump will still outperform the polling averages by +1 pt in most cases, with few or no examples of kamala outperforming polling averages.
feel free to quote this and bump to maximize my pwnage on 11/6. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:47 PM Author: ;..........POLITITH,,,...,,.;.,,...,,,;.;. what "professional expertise"? where's the analysis? where's the beef? why dont you bet 500k on polymarket since they're selling dollars for 65 cents? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250122) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:50 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) i did bet some $$$ when kamala was even.
nffi re: my expertise.
there are plenty of people more competent and well-informed than me that have tackled this. go read their summaries if you wish. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:36 PM Author: AZNgirl voting for Trump so Dad gets deported pollsters overcompensated and now trump is getting benefit in these stupid polls (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250062) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:37 PM Author: gedood persoon what do you think about the fact that early voting #s are catastrophic for dems (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250066) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:39 PM Author: AZNgirl voting for Trump so Dad gets deported ljl do trumpshits just make shit up then recite it and then believe its fact? i was just looking at early voting, NV is the only swing state dems are really underperforming. GA and AZ too but no one expects dems to be that far ahead there
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:43 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) don't worry tt. you'll still have your turdskin representation via usha. way more turdskin than kamala anyway. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250107) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:45 PM Author: gedood persoon now do comparison with 2020, ljl (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250114) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:45 PM Author: Wang Hernandez If trump wins AZ and Wisconsin this thing is over turd boy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250115) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 2:13 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe trafalgar 2024: tie in WI, +3 PA, +2 MI, +2 GA trafalgar 2020: (Biden) +1, +2 PA, +2 MI, +5 GA
Plug in the trafalgar polling miss from 2020 and Harris wins the election. Trafalgar has virtually always overstated GOP support in races since they started polling in 2018. They had some hilarious whoppers in 2022 polling, including in the MI and PA races.
You're just guessing on what the polls show is a coin-flip race. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:20 PM Author: gedood persoon https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48249984) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:21 PM Author: Trump is the Lib Killer (TDNW) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48249991) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:25 PM Author: disco fries (no more via ferratas or Teewinot for me, brothers) I'm starting to think that the machine might just award Texas to Kamala. Whatever happens, it's going to be really big. The normies are going to go wild. It's nothing but pure chaos. The end of Amerikkka is here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250005) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 1:27 PM Author: AZNgirl voting for Trump so Dad gets deported cant wait for the uS to burn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619656&forum_id=2#48250015) |