translation from Polish but very interesting and matches up with their other moves (rare earth’s embargo for example)

the pic is damning too - where is Shinzo when you need him!!

“ I have the sense that we are witnessing the ultimate break with the 🇨🇳 "hide your strength" doctrine of Deng Xiaoping. A new China has arrived, one that bows to no one.

A few reflections from a week in Asia, including a series of conversations in Beijing 👇

In short, I think that in 10 years of talking with Chinese people, I've never seen such immense self-confidence, sense of strength, and superiority over others as I do now. Among experts, diplomats, Party officials.

And above all—I haven't seen such clarity about 🇨🇳 intentions. Usually our work involves drilling through layers of Party line about "China's peaceful rise" or "neutrality toward Russia," only then—using arguments, provoking—to extract what the interlocutor really thinks. This time, it comes unprompted—and it's quite striking.

A few theses from the conversations:

On territorial disputes in the region: It's time for you to start living in the new reality, not the old one. Stop listening to the old powers, and listen to the new power instead. And that power is China. We've been talking about the law of the sea (UNCLOS) for 20 years, and it leads nowhere. The truth is, we have the military strength and we'll win—you must recognize all our claims in the South China Sea. When an elephant walks, it can trample ants. It should think about the ants' fate, but don't hold it against him.

On economic goals: The latest Five-Year Plan has one goal: to prepare the Chinese economy for confrontation with the US. It's about creating an autonomous industrial system, resilient to shocks. When we win the technological and industrial competition with the US, "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan will happen on its own, because no one will even try. That's the "preferred option," but the Taiwan issue will be resolved within 10 years anyway. If Europe wants to keep making money here, let it invest in those capabilities and fill the technological gaps we need from that perspective. If not, follow the lead of a few Japanese companies selling cheap fast food in China—that's how you'll earn a bit.

On nuclear weapons development (China aims for strategic weapons parity with the US and Russia by 2035): Yes, we're building capabilities, but it won't affect our "no first use" doctrine. Why? Because we already have conventional dominance in the Western Pacific, so strategic nuclear weapons are needed for one thing only: to knock the idea out of the US's head that they can stop a conventional war by launching a limited nuclear strike on us. So expanding our strategic forces basically stabilizes the situation in that area.

These are a few snapshots from parts of the conversations held under Chatham House rules (you can quote, but without attributing the speaker).

To that, I'll add a general conclusion from a dozen or so conversations in Beijing, aimed at finding a way out of the EU-China conflict: slim chances. Essentially, as a starting condition for talks, the Chinese demand unconditional capitulation from the EU: withdrawal of tariffs, anti-subsidy proceedings, export controls, coordination with the US, change in rhetoric. And if Europe didn't have such weak cards in hand, we'd increasingly feel that it can't back down—because it'll get crushed industrially and geopolitically.

That's it for today; I'll repeat once more: it's not the content that shocks me, but China's openness about its intentions. And above all, the self-confidence I've never seen before.

Is it justified? I don't know if rubbing Trump's nose in it a few times, fueled by a belief in the West's decline, isn't turning into triumphalism. China has its own problems too, which it masks with strength. And I wouldn't count us Europeans out, because flexing muscles is exactly meant to make us surrender.

But how to deal with China's self-confidence and what risks flow from it—that's the main question for our strategic discussions today, in Poland and Europe, but also in the US.

Finally, a picture worth a thousand words, from this week: a Chinese official, hands in pockets, berating a Japanese diplomat. The 🇨🇳🇯🇵 tensions are a longer story, but I couldn't find a better illustration for this post.”

https://x.com/j_jakobowski/status/1991780548910456908

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5800613&forum_id=2#49449032)

but it’s better than if they had kept quiet for another decade while the West slept

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5800613&forum_id=2#49449226)