Date: October 12th, 2024 7:36 AM
Author: Outnumbered Ratface Native
There are moments when the tides of Political Science are not subject to the whims of anecdotal flux but are instead bound by the ironclad forces of demographic determinism, campaign entropy, and the perennial laws of voter behavior. As we observe the unfolding theater of 2024, it becomes clear that the electoral calculus—despite frenetic media posturing—is largely predetermined. This is Settled Political Science.
The Trump campaign's improved early voting operations in comparison to 2020, while impressive, are not immune to the deeper undercurrents shifting the balance of electoral power. Democrats, under the banner of Kamala Harris, have honed their outreach to unaffiliated voters, women, and suburbanites, extending the coalition that delivered victories in 2020. Yet, Trump’s grip on key territories persists through the echo of prior successes. This election is a tale of narrow margins, where early tactical shifts fail to offset structural changes.
Final Predictions for Every Swing State:
Georgia:
Donald Trump: 49.9%
Kamala Harris: 49.8%
In Georgia, Trump clings to a razor-thin lead, much as the Byzantine Empire once held its western borders—fiercely contested, but sustained by inertia. Despite early Democratic gains, the GOP machine, combined with rural turnout, ekes out a narrow victory.
North Carolina:
Donald Trump: 50.3%
Kamala Harris: 49.2%
North Carolina, the battleground of incremental margins, is where Trump leverages his last vestiges of working-class appeal, edging out Harris. The state’s shifting suburban electorate, while flirting with Democratic aspirations, is not yet enough to turn the tide.
Arizona:
Donald Trump: 50.7%
Kamala Harris: 48.9%
Arizona, long thought to be the bellwether of Sun Belt realignment, swings back to Trump, mirroring the resurgence of reactionary forces seen in post-imperial Spain. The state’s conservatism, though battered, remains intact, bolstered by Trump’s enduring appeal among older voters and rural counties.
Pennsylvania:
Kamala Harris: 50.8%
Donald Trump: 48.4%
Pennsylvania, the heart of the Rust Belt, is where Harris finds her strongest footing. The post-industrial cities, long disillusioned by Trump’s unfulfilled economic promises, break for Harris, reflecting the irreversible transformation of the state’s electoral makeup.
Michigan:
Kamala Harris: 50.4%
Donald Trump: 48.9%
Michigan, much like the contested regions of central Europe in the early 20th century, holds its precarious balance but tips toward Harris. The strength of union households and suburban voters solidifies a narrow yet decisive Democratic victory.
Wisconsin:
Donald Trump: 49.7%
Kamala Harris: 49.6%
Wisconsin stands as a monument to political volatility. In a nearly perfect split, Trump scrapes by with a marginal victory, reminiscent of the close, factional battles of Italy’s post-war elections. Harris’s urban coalition falls just short in a state where rural Scumbag resistance remains robust.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5610452&forum_id=2#48189594)