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The Box: Kalshi and Polymarket are NOT predictive of the results.
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:03 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Hold firm, fellow Trumpmos, we got this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50227956) |
Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:11 PM Author: ferengi besides sensationalism, what's the benefit of linking to the markets instead of the results? we're just seeing the betting numbers follow who's winning in the count, only the ""odds"" make the leads seem way more dramatic and decisive. the first one i clicked was Graham losing 84K to 81K with 3% votes counted and the betting odds had already jumped from her winning to her losing like 65% to 35%. some retards might click that and think the 65% and 35% actually indicate something about the probability of the outcome. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50227996) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:12 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband PWNing shitcons. The "benefit" is inherent to the task.
Edit: "some retards might click that and think the 65% and 35% actually indicate something about the probability of the outcome"
They LITERALLY do. There are people who know about the different precincts and what their composition is, etc. They study these things so that they can make money. They're HIGHLY predictive. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:14 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband tbtp see the edit ^^ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228013) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:22 PM Author: ferengi ok fine that's the one thing it's better for, pwning shitcons, if it's the difference between losing 65/35 and losing by 3,000 votes lol. but then it opens us up to pwning if it swings back the other way as the next few thousands are counted.
no, it's nonsense. 65/35 D is just "D is winning" with a ton of noise. some people might be doing advanced regressions with the available information but i think it's safe to assume most people are just betting based on the count. and the MSM takes all the precincts and demographics into account when it calls the races, at which point the betting markets resolve, so... better just to go by the results. or maybe websites that take the partial info and project the results based on whatever algo they've come up with. but not the betting markets, which are downstream of all that. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:34 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Awesome. Hopefully you or someone else will log all of the instances where PolyMarket and Kalshi were wrong, thus proving that you were right all along? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228138) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:40 PM Author: ferengi nope don't care that much. but do you really want to commit to them being reliable measures of probability? because if your final answer is that it IS just sensationalism - more dramatic pwning of shitcons to link a fast-moving, volatile graph - and you don't actually think the prediction markets are magical probability machines, then i respect that. we love drama here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228173) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:40 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband Yes, that's my final answer. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228175) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:44 PM Author: ferengi which one? they are reliable measures of probability, or they're JUST fun to link for the drama? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228205) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:46 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband The first one, I didn't read all the way to the end (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228212) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:48 PM Author: ferengi really dumb (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228225) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:28 PM Author: Lucy Mercer (Safari) Not really dude. "People who know about the precincts" used to have professional full time careers doing that, and they were known as pollsters and were often wrong and didnt make that much money. This is about as correct as saying "there are people who know about different stocks and study these things so that they can make money" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228109) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:13 PM Author: .,.,,..,,.,.,.:.,,;:.,.,..,.,..,,:.........:..,.:: Why dont you stick to showing people your butthole, einstein instead of sharing your retard level "thoughts" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228003) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:59 PM Author: ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228308) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:13 PM Author: Lucy Mercer (Safari) "The house always wins" according to these morons (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228007) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:13 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad Nate Silver said the best use case for Polymarket is on election night to see which way things are going before the news reports it. So if ever there were a time, now is the time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228008) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:17 PM Author: Lucy Mercer (Safari) He is 100% right about that (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228037) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:29 PM Author: ferengi what odd access to special knowledge do Polymarket users have that the news doesn't?
if the answer is just: they go on websites that take the partial info and project the results... then THOSE are what we should be linking. just not the markets, which are downstream of those things. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:34 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad They're gamblers who synthesize all available data into one piece of information: can I make money on this. They are highly motivated to seek truth and accuracy. I was wrong and the polls were right. I sold myself a story that turned out to not be true. It's over. We got blown out. It happens. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228141) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:49 PM Author: ferengi lol. so their guesses matter because they're gamblers even though gamblers are often bad at it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228231) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:55 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad We lost babe. We can do back to back samurais again next time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228272) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:55 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228279) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 9:00 PM Author: ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228311) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:29 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,...,:,...:..:.,:.::,. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229170) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:13 PM Author: Fracture in the Maidenhead (gunneratttt) The problem is you're considering "Polymarket users" as some monolith when you should be thinking of it as a massive Wisdom of the Crowd. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229078) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:17 PM Author: ferengi there's a little bit of that but again it's just people reacting to results and projections so why not just link to those, in the context of understanding what's going on with an individual race on election night as results are coming in? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229100) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:19 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) Should they write a comprehensive essay on Substack distilling dozens of polls, pundits, anecdotes and other observations into why they think betting on something with favorable odds will enrich them? Thousands of people could be externalizing their views instead of just clicking buy now.
Some gamblers are stupid and just hoping to get lucky. Some bettors are partisan hacks and paid shills. But some of them are people who are really plugged into the race and what's going on. The odds are sensitive to all of this, just like the stock market. The idea is that price sensitivity is across millions of people is more accurate than any individual pundit. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:20 PM Author: ferengi what? should who do that? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229119) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:21 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) The Polymarket users that you deride as a monolith, e.g. all gamblers are dumb (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229123) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:23 PM Author: ferengi i never said they were a monolith, i said there's no reason to believe their actions provide more insight than the numbers they're reacting to as the results are coming in (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229138) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:27 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) Some of them are retarded Some of them are compromised Some of them are impulsive But some of them are smart and are picking up on the signal through the noise. No one says they're 100% accurate, they're just often more accurate than the alternative. And you can choose to use it, or not, to your advantage. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:31 PM Author: ferengi when you say "more accurate than the alternative" what do you mean? the alternatives i've been championing are the results and projections based on the results. are you talking about those? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229180) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:44 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) Obviously the results are paramount but if you can know with reasonable certainty what those results are a couple of hours ahead of time you can make a lot of money. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229262) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:45 PM Author: ferengi ok? i'm not talking about making money, i'm talking about following the election results on election night with my internet friends (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229266) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:46 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) We've been going off of Kashi and Polymarket all night, chief. We've been an hour ahead of CNN. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229272) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:47 PM Author: ferengi it worked this time bc GOP got gaped. it isn't guaranteed to always work (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229282) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:48 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) Right. Which is why you don't have to actually bet on the results. And when the gamblers are wrong you can go haha, holy shit. Tonight they were bang on. It's all part of the fun! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229288) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:54 PM Author: ferengi you're in the category of people who know what you're looking at when you look at a prediction market chart, but again, there are some retards here who think they're looking at a measure of probability of the outcome (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229334) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:58 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) What? No I don't. I just lost $20 on Ken Paxton despite having not voted for him lol. I'm one of the retards! Goy Superstar is right, I am the guy who has no idea what I'm talking about. He is wrong about me being short though. You of all people already know that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229350) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:59 PM Author: ferengi no i'm saying you understand that betting markets are just based on what people think will happen and you find them useful/interesting/whatever but not magical probability machines (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229359) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:01 AM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) I think all smart people including Nate Silver understand this. That's why he puts so much time and effort into his elaborate model. If anything the betting markets are based on his work, not the other way around. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229372) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:25 PM Author: Fracture in the Maidenhead (gunneratttt) It's not iust results and projections. It's a million, billion things from a prole's horse sense to an MIT quants analysis all weighted by their skin in the game.
You might as well wonder why the stock market values things differently than what the company's book value is. |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:27 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229159) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:28 PM Author: ferengi yeah i'd rather just look at the actual numbers and projections lol. again, we are just talking about election night here. do you seriously think that as the votes are coming in, it's more useful to follow the Polymarket page than the actual literal results, in order to have an understanding of what's going on? like at least the Kalshi pages have the results and % counted in addition to the betting market odds. so it's defensible to link those, especially if you're also interested in the public opinion aspect of it. but linking Polymarket as if it's an update on the race itself is crazy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229165) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:34 PM Author: Fracture in the Maidenhead (gunneratttt) If you think there is an identifiable "true" probability that's more accurate than the betting markets aggregated probability you could arbitrage the difference and become a billionaire overnight. Anyone could, we all have access to the same data. Doesn't the fact that that doesn't happen make you question your premise that there's some identifiable probability that's superior? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229198) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:35 PM Author: ferengi no. what i'm saying is that it's less noisy to just look at the actual results. sometimes you just don't have enough information to make the call yet, and you want to see the information you DO have. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229204) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:45 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) I've seen the odds bounce around before and be completely wrong. Tonight they were all correct hours ahead of official projections. Arguably days if not weeks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229267) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:46 PM Author: ferengi yeah today was pretty unique because things started out really well for Ds and then just kept going well for them and it was a total blowout lol. there's no guarantee every election will be such a bloodbath. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229276) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:47 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) That is correct. That is why it's called gambling. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229285) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:48 PM Author: Fracture in the Maidenhead (gunneratttt) You're the one insisting we look at predictions (one person/groups analysis of the probability) over betting markets (a massive aggregate). If only the final results matter than just wait until 100% of the votes are tallied. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229287) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:49 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) Cr we're at least 6 months away from California counting every ballot. They have until the end of the month to mail them in as long as it's posted by 11/31. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229290) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:50 PM Author: ferengi i've been suggesting just looking at the results to follow the results without extra noise. that's what i've been doing. and there's no problem with being interested in the markets too because of what they measure. but again, i'm arguing against treating "D pulled ahead of R on Polymarket" as an update on the race itself. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229297) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:53 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) We just want to enjoy things 2 hours early (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229325) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:53 PM Author: Fracture in the Maidenhead (gunneratttt) How is it not relative to other predictive methods? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229328) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 11:57 PM Author: ferengi again bc it is so volatile, it can lead you astray so easily if you take it at face value. like the example i gave about how quickly the numbers moved in the Graham race with only 3% of the votes in, 3k lead. that could easily have swung back when the next 3% came in but didn't this time bc pedo GOP got raped like their obese god king raped 13yo girls. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229344) |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:07 AM Author: Fracture in the Maidenhead (gunneratttt) Yeah, and those reflect the realtime aggregate opinion of what the outcome will be. The same as probability changing during an ongoing sports game.
Again, if you're confident that another prediction method is superior, then you could prove it by beating the markets. Or explain why no one else has. |
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Date: November 4th, 2026 12:08 AM Author: ferengi no i'm not saying some other prediction method is superior, i'm saying sometimes i don't want anyone's prediction, i just want to know the results. the vote counts that are coming in. instead of people's guesses based on it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50229399) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:56 PM Author: ferengi also Nate Silver is literally employed by Polymarket so (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228288) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:58 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad He's a homosexual gambling addict who combines cocaine, Grindr, Texas Hold'em, the Super Bowl, and politicths into one super hobby too but that doesn't mean he's wrong in this instance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228304) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 9:09 PM Author: ferengi just saying he's incentivized to plug it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228364) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 9:10 PM Author: Prepping my nuts for Tallys's troon squad (HATP conceding defeat to EPAH) I'm incentived to plug all sorts of things but you advised me not to speak on it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228371) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:13 PM Author: ,.,.,.,.,,.,..,:,,:,,.,:,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. I like the box but she was being shockingly retarded about this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228006) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:15 PM Author: Emotionally + Physically Abusive Ex-Husband same, but I LOVE her (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228015) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:17 PM Author: chandler (retired) This is the 14 year anniversary of the box going to Johnny’s saloon in Huntington Beach on my recommendation, a big moment in my life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228042) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 10:18 PM Author: ferengi 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228792) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2026 8:15 PM Author: chandler (retired) Thank god I’m in Hawaii right now to avoid the rethuglican maga riots once they get smashed in the elections tonight (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5918072&forum_id=2#50228023) |